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Hits: 353  0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Everything is positive when it comes to Lincecum. If he can avoid injury, he'll finish the year among the league leaders in Wins, ERA, Strikeouts and WHIP. 18-0-2.60-1.05-260 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Maybe he takes the foot off the pedal now that he's been paid. His only downside seems to be exclusively speculative. 13-0-2.90-1.15-240 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Lincecum will be the first pitcher to come off the board come draft day. While I don't normally recommend pitchers this high, you'll be off to a huge head start in pitching by adding Lincecum. Tiny Tim will help you dominate across every pitching category (expect saves of course) and should be a threat to the NL triple crown. 15-0-2.70-1.10-255 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 12 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
|
 |
$ |
39 |
 |
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 357 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Halladay moves from the rebuilding Blue Jays to the two-time World Series champion Phillies and from facing the DH to facing the pitcher. Halladay has been a terrific source of strikeouts the past two seasons as well as wins and if anything he is in a better position to contribute there. Much has been said about the benefits of strike-out type starters moving from the AL to the NL, which should more than cancel out any negative effects of moving to such a hitter friendly environment. In addition, Halladay replaces such unfriendly destinations as Fenway and Yankee Stadium with more comfortable division match-ups in Florida and Citi-field. 20-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Halladay turns 33 in May and has a history of arm problems (albeit not recently). That combined with his heavy workload over the past four seasons (232+IP per season) should give one some caution. The other "issue" with Halladay is whether he will be the 5.5 K/9 pitcher of 2006 and 2007 or the 7.5+ pitcher of the last two seasons. The difference being a whopping 60 strikeouts over 230 IP. There's no real reason to think that facing the pitcher he would fall back, but it would not be at all a surprise were he to only put in 200-210 innings in which case his strikeout total might be correspondingly lower. 15-0-3.40-1.20-165 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
It's numerically true that players in the "old days" didn't stay with a single team their entire career much more than they do now, but it certainly feels that way when a player like Halladay moves on. The one-time face of the Blue Jays franchise is now a Philly, with a club coming off two straight World Series appearances. If there's any justice in the world, the Phillies will make it three years in a row and give Doc a shot at the title. The world being what it is, the Jays will beat the Astros this season.
Halladay has been so good over the past two seasons that even with the workload (too much of it) and age on his arm, it's hard not to give him a thumbs up going forward. Much of the bump we would give him for facing the pitcher is given back for the park and his age, but that's still awfully good. We expect him to eat innings, which will give his owners strikeouts and wins. 18-0-3.10-1.15-190 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 21 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
|
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$ |
35 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 251 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
The King will chip in elite totals in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and wins. There are very few pitchers who deliver the fantasy impact of Felix Hernandez. 20-0-2.70-1.15-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Conditioning. Hernandez looks like he's on some sort of Mo Vaughn/David Wells diet. It didn't affect his performance last year, but it's always a concern. 15-0-3.10-1.25-190 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Hernandez had a dominant 2009. If it weren't for the God-like efforts of Zack Greinke, he would have been a unanimous choice for the Cy Young. The scary part? He's only 23, and the best is yet to come. Place 'The King' at the top of your AL draft boards -- yes, even ahead of Greinke. 18-0-2.90-1.20-200 in 220 IP
|
| Recommended Draft Position: 24 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
34 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 303 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Greinke may not reach the levels of a 2.16 ERA again, but even a slight drop off will still have him among the league's best fantasy pitchers. 18-0-2.60-1.10-240 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
His biggest negative is what he did last season. He's currently going for too much in drafts, leaving comparable pitchers to be taken at a better value. 13-0-3.30-1.30-200 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Greinke has come a long way in his 6 seasons, from being a 21 year old rookie in 2004 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, to a horrible sophomore campaign which saw him post a 5-17 record, 5.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, to almost being completely out of baseball in '06 with personal issues, and then coming back to pitch two very good seasons in 2007 and in 2008 when he went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 183 K in 202 IP. Then he put it all together for one of the best fantasy seasons in recent memory, winning the CY Young in the process. Because of this, Greinke will be way over-valued, as you'll be paying for last season's numbers that he may have trouble replicating. He'll be fine as your fantasy ace, but there's better value to be had. 15-0-3.00-1.20-225 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 27 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
33 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 255 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
CC's first year with the Yanks would have to qualify as a success. After all, he won 19 games and was amongst the AL leaders in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. Pitching for the World Champs guarantees close to twenty wins again, and 200 strikeouts is well within reach for CC. 20-0-3.10-1.10-210 in 235 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The move from the NL to AL caused CC's numbers to go from ridiculous in 2008 to just really good in 2009. He saw his ERA and WHIP rise and his strikeout total dip in 2009. Expect numbers more like his 2009 totals than his incredible 2008. Pitching in the AL is just that much more difficult than pitching in the NL. 15-0-3.50-1.20-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
CC still qualifies as a fantasy ace and is about as reliable as they come. As long as you don't go wild and chase the numbers he put up with the Brewers, CC will make you happy in 2010. 20-0-3.35-1.15-205 in 235 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 33 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
32 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 356 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Haren is an elite source of ERA, K and WHIP. His ratios can stabilize your totals if you want to stream pitchers through your line-up. 18-0-3.10-1.05-215 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Aside from his usual second-half drop-off, Haren is very unlucky when it comes to getting wins. Getting shoddy support from an anemic Diamondbacks offense doesn't help either. He's never eclipsed 16 wins in a season, despite the numbers of a 20-game winner. 13-0-3.30-1.15-200 in 210 IP |
Analysis:
Dan Haren is a roto king. He really does it all -- at least pre-All-Star break. His high inning total allows his tremendous ratios (ERA & WHIP) to be more valuable, and his 8.75 K/9 is among the league leaders. The best strategy with Haren would be to expend a high draft pick on him, and then trade him when he's named to the All-star team. His post-break number have plunged for three consecutive years. While he still turns in some good performances, what you can get for him mid-way will be worth more than keeping him. 15-0-3.20-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 40 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
30 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 394 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Santana is only 31, and prior to the elbow woes retuning, he was en route to his best season since his tenure with Minnesota. Through May, Santana had struck out 86 batters in 66 innings with an ERA below 2.00. He's not the same thrower he was as a kid in Minnie, but he's clearly still a top pitcher when healthy. Even after the elbow started acting up, Santana was still, except for a couple of starts in June, a perfectly usable fantasy pitcher. Santana's stuff is so good that he was able to turn from a devastating strikeout style (withstanding 70%+ fly balls plus line drives) to a more ground ball oriented approach as the wheels didn't quite come off in July and August.
Santana is healthy, despite a report of Santana icing down his elbow (as pitchers do after workouts) causing his ADP to drop through the floor. Citi is a great field for Santana, as it depressed the one negative of the fly ball style -- the home run. Even in an "off" year, Santana posted a 2.43-1.10 in Citi, and that's not too bad, I would say. 18-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Santana was a real trooper last season, pitching with an obvious arm problem for a couple of months before shutting it down as the Mets finally succumbed to the freakish number of injuries. The real concern here remains health. After posting six straight seasons with K rates well over a K an inning, but 230 IP each year, Santana moved to the NL, where one could expect that facing the pitcher, he would have even more success. He was very good of course, but the K rate dropped below 8 (often a sign of injury or coming injury) and, well, here we are. 10-0-3.75-1.25-130 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
In 2001, Pedro Martinez experienced arm woes and was only able to tally 116+ IP. In the process, he threw up some freakish strikeout totals over the first two months of the season -- 121 K in 81 IP, which was well over his career rate. June went to hell and, unlike Santana, Pete was unable to continue much farther, making four starts in June and then a handful at the end of the year. It's eerily familiar to Santana's situation last season (Pedro was 29, Santana 30 coming into last season) with years of overuse, an initial period of extreme strikeouts (see positives), and then injury.
The good news is that Pedro came back the following year to post one of his top two or three years, going 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 239 strikeouts. You'll want to watch Johan's fly ball rates (in this case going down probably being an indication that he is switching pitches to save his arm), but there's every precedent here for excellence.
Although there are significant questions in the bullpen, and defensive metrics distinctly do not like this team (Jason Bay is rated as one of the worst outfielders, and even David Wright, who has such a good reputation, showed up poorly on the defensive metrics in 2009), there's every indication Santana will perform in this park. Moderate your bid, but he is currently going at a bargain price for his potential. 15-0-3.20-1.15-210 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 46 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
29 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 218 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Verlander will provide an elite source of strikeouts. His durability allows him to go deep into games, which gives him more opportunities to mow opponents down. His ERA and WHIP will be slightly above average, but it's unlikely he'll finish among the league leaders. 18-0-3.50-1.15-230 in 240 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Verlander is a true fireballer, but, on a Tigers team that looks like it will take a step back in 2010, it is unlikely that he will make a huge impact in anything outside of strikeouts. Not what you want from a fantasy ace. 13-0-3.90-1.30-190 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Verlander was on top of his game in 2009, going 19-9 with a league-high 269 strikeouts. He will be drafted as a fantasy ace, but won't give you the overall numbers of one. Look for better value a few rounds later (e.g. Adam Wainwright or Cliff Lee). 15-0-3.70-1.20-220 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 45 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
29 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 303 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Wainwright enjoyed the best year of his career in 2009, setting career highs in wins and strikeouts, while posting the best ERA of his career. He clearly is a a top level ace. At only 28, he has a number of Cy Young quality years ahead of him. 18-0-2.90-1.20-220 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Despite the drop in ERA last season, Wanwight's WHIP climbed from 1.18 in 2008 to 1.21 last season. Usually WHIP and ERA travel up or down together, not in opposite directions, so there is reason to believe that a jump in his ERA is likely in 2010. 15-0-3.40-1.30-180 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Wainwright is a legit fantasy ace. He is in his prime, and while it may be asking too much for him to repeat his 2.63 ERA from 2010, another fantastic season can all but be assured. He tends to get less attenition that some of the other fantasy aces, making him an ever better target on draft day. 18-0-3.10-1.25-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 54 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
28 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 212 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
He's young, already has two great seasons, pitches for one of the best teams in baseball, and collects strikeouts like Tiger collects mistresses. What's not to like? Lester is becoming one baseball's elite starting pitchers. 18-0-3.25-1.18-230 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Pitching in the AL East is never a walk on the beach, even if you don't have to pitch against the Red Sox. This fact will prevent him from being able to post an ERA in the low 3.00s. Somewhere between 3.25 and 3.50 is more appropriate. 15-0-3.50-1.25-200 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Lester has passed teammate Josh Beckett as the Red Sox's ace, and has established himself as a fantasy ace as well. He's just 26, and has a lot of great years ahead of him. Pitching in Boston will provide the run support needed to win plenty of games. 18-0-3.30-1.20-220 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 60 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
27 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 232 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lee will end the year among the league leaders in WHIP and ERA, which gives you opportunity to chase Wins and K elsewhere. The ratios are much harder to find on the waiver wire, and Lee is a specialist. 18-0-3.20-1.18-180 in 230 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
He's getting older, and pitching at Safeco will entice Lee to pitch to contact, which could lead to a decline in strikeouts. 15-0-3.50-1.30-150 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Pitching at Safeco, with baseball's best defense behind him, will increase Lee's already sterling numbers. The only chink in his armor is that his K/9 rate (7.04), although nothing to sneeze at, is nowhere near his dominance in WHIP and ERA. Lee will produce number one value, at a second tier price. 18-0-3.30-1.20-170 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 67 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
26 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 314 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Johnson had a breakout campaign in 2009, winning 15 games while racking up a 3.23 ERA and 191 strikeouts in 209 innings of work. The big right-hander with the upper-90s heat possesses some of the nastiest stuff in baseball and should post very strong numbers this season if he can remain healthy. 18-0-3.00-1.10-210 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Ah yes, the "if he can remain healthy" disclaimer. Fact is, last season marked the first time Johnson has eclipsed 157 innings in his four-year career, and he missed big chunks of the '07 and '08 campaigns due to injuries. He underwent Tommy John surgery late in '07, and returned to action just 11 months later. Johnson's stuff isn't in doubt, but his ability to stay out there and throw it certainly should be. 8-0-3.50-1.30-125 in 145 IP |
Analysis:
Johnson is something of a health risk, but his enormous upside and relative bargain price make him a pitcher worth targeting once the big names are off the board. Look for Josh as your No. 2 Fantasy starter in your draft's middle rounds, but don't be surprised if he ends up as your No. 1 guy by the end of the season. 15-0-3.30-1.20-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 68 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
26 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 365 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Quite simply, Carpenter is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. Few others can match the ERA and WHIP he will post, and he will win plenty of games pitching for one of the better teams in baseball, the Cards. His upside is huge, if he can stay healthy. 18-0-2.80-1.00-150 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Carpenter turns 35 in April, and he missed nearly all of 2007 and 2008 with injuries. He was great last year, but his body is too worn down to expect him to last through a full season even relatively. Lastly, he doesn't strikeout batters at the rate other elite options do, meaning even if he is healthy, his strikeouts total won't be exceptional. 13-0-3.20-1.15-110 in 140 IP |
Analysis:
Although he has been eclipsed by teammate Adam Wainwright in the fantasy game, Carpenter still ranks as the Cards ace, and with good reason. When healthy he is the better pitcher... when healthy. Carpenter ranks as one of the biggest injury risks in baseball but could pay off huge if you're willing to take the risk. Right now (Friday, February 19th, 2010 at 10:48 AM EST), Carpenter is healthy. Of course, that could all change before the top of the hour. 15-0-3.00-1.08-140 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 69 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
26 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 213 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Over the past 4 season, Papelbon has saved 151 games, posted an ERA under 2.00, and a WHIP under 1.00. With the Red Sox set to be one of the game's best teams once again, there is no reason why Paps can't approach 40 saves in 2010. 3-40-1.90-1.00-75 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Papelbon posted the highest WHIP of his career last season (1.15) and saw a slight drop in his saves total as well. That's all I've got for negatives. 3-35-2.20-1.10-70 in 65 IP |
Analysis:
Some will debate which of Papelbon or Mariano Rivera is the better option, but the truth is, you can't go wrong with either guy. It's like having to choose between dating a hot blonde or hot brunette. The only real difference is that the younger Papelbon doesn't carry to risk of physical breakdown that the 40-year old Rivera does, but Rivera carries to potential to save more games. 3-38-2.10-1.05-75 in 70 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 77 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
25 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 231 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Let's see... he pitches for the defending world champions, is coming off of a 44 save season, and is perhaps the greatest closer of all time. Plus, I'm pretty sure he is a robot. 5-43-1.90-0.90-75 in 65 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
He turned 40 this off-season, and eventually every player's skills start to deteriorate, even those you are convinced are actually robots. Could this be the season that Mo proves to be human? 3-33-2.50-1.05-55 in 50 IP |
Analysis:
When it comes down to it, Rivera is still amongst the best, if not the best closer in the game. Yes, he is getting up there in age, but he has shown no indication of breaking down whatsoever. Rivera is just as reliable as ever. 3-40-2.10-0.95-70 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 76 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
25 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 286 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Broxton Struck out more people than starters Derek Lowe, Jon Garland or Joel Pineiro. A lot of people ignore the effects of closer statistics on their overall numbers, but wouldn't you rather have Max Scherzer than Jason Hammel? Broxton struck out 42 more than Mariano Rivera. 5-40-2.40-1.05-110 in 85 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The strikeout were nice, but the seven wins were Broxton's main boost. Vulture wins like this are next to impossible to predict. With an unlikely looking starting rotation and the possibility of a fire sale as mentioned in the recently made public business plan, it's not a certain thing that he will be able to improve upon his 36 saves from 2009. 3-35-3.10-1.20-85 in 70 IP |
Analysis:
Because of his superlative strikeout totals (better than some low-end starters), Broxton is one of the few closers worth an investment. While his save totals may not equal other closers, and one shouldn't expect a repeat of the seven wins, they certainly won't be that much worse. As a result we like him better than some of the usual candidates. 5-38-2.75-1.10-95 in 75 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 25 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
25 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 341 0 |
|
Positives/Upside:
In trying to predict AL/NL switches for pitchers, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. Strikeout-types will tend to benefit more from facing the pitchers in the NL, and pitchers who don't give up hits will suffer less moving to the junior circuit. Although Peavy is a fine strikeout pitcher, the main reason he succeeds is that he doesn't allow hits -- 7.72/9 for his career. He should continue to be one of the top pitchers in baseball.
Peavy, like most pitchers, gives up more home runs outside of Petco than in, but aside from 2008, the split has been pretty mild and his overall rates outside of Petco are well above league average in any case. Further, Peavy's 3.45 ERA last season was almost entirely a fluke. His WHIP and HR rates were better than 2008 when he posted a 2.85. Peavy's numbers should translate very well from the NL into the AL. 18-0-2.90-1.05-200 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The percentage call on Peavy would be to take last year's results and round up due to the move to AL and from a run-sucking vortex like Petco into a moderately healthy hitter's park. Even if he doesn't give up hits, This Jake isn't facing the pitcher, and that means at least 0.5 fewer K's per start, so perhaps 15 or 16 fewer then That Jake if he can remain healthy the bulk of the season. So That 215 K Peavy becomes This 200 K Peavy, and while still good, in combination with the expected hit on ERA and WHIP, that puts him down to the next tier. 15-0-3.30-1.15-175 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
This Jake plays in a hitters park facing the DH and That Jake played in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks ever. But This Jake still doesn't give up hits, is still stingy with the long ball (far better than average even on the road), and is likely to K close to 9/9 even without facing the pitcher. Plus, he's playing on a better team.
That's not to say you want to spend as if he was Tim Lincecum, nor expect that he will perform that way -- but I'd take him before a closer or a power challenged OF (without balancing speed). 18-0-3.00-1.05-195 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 82 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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|
$ |
24 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 219 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Beckett bucked the trend of having a good season every other year in 2009 when he posted numbers similar to his 2008 totals. He has developed into a reliable contributor across the board and has the upside to outproduce his draft position/auction price. 18-0-3.50-1.15-210 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Beckett is prone to having down seasons. While he will help you in all categories, he will not post an elite level ERA. Beckett has incredible stuff but can be an enigma at times. 15-0-3.90-1.25-185 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Beckett is no longer the Red Sox' ace and qualifies as a borderline fantasy ace as well. He is a reliable source of wins and strikeouts, and low walk totals keep his WHIP low. His ERA will be good but not spectacular. I'd much rather target someone like Beckett coming off of a solid season than some of the other starters with similarly perceived value, like Javy Vazquez. 18-0-3.70-1.20-200 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 81 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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|
$ |
24 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 228 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
In 2009 with the Braves, 15-0-2.88-1.03-238. Enough said. 18-0-4.05-1.25-200 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
In 2004 with the Yanks, 14-0-4.91-1.29-150. Pitching in the AL and in the pressure of the Bronx makes all the difference. Enough said. 13-0-4.55-1.35-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Place your hands behind your head, and step away from the Javy Vazquez. Vazquez has absolutely no chance of reproducing his 2009 success back with the Yankees in the AL in 2010. I don't expect him to be as bad as he was in 2004 with the Yankees, but he be a whole lot better either. Let someone else make the poor investment. 15-0-4.35-1.30-195 in 215 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 80 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
24 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 306 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
It was well-known last spring that Hanson was a great prospect, but the future became "now" in a hurry, as the Braves' wunderkind racked up 11 wins, posted a 2.89 ERA and fanned 116 hitters in 127.2 innings pitched. Hanson's ceiling is enormous, and there's no reason to believe that he won't build on his '09 success and become one of baseball's top hurlers in 2010. 18-0-2.95-1.15-190 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Simmer down now, Tigger -- before you go off to engrave his plaque for Cooperstown, let's keep in mind that Hanson has thrown just over a half season's worth of innings in the bigs. Hitters will invariably adjust to him, and unless he adapts in kind, he'll struggle. Baseball history is littered with hot-shot young pitchers who started off like a house afire, and ended up the same way -- a smoldering pile of ashes. Hanson's talented, but until he shows his stuff for at least a full season it's hard to buy in on the whole "ace" thing. 13-0-3.45-1.30-145 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
Hanson looks like a special talent, and this may be the last year that he'll be available at less than a premium price. 15-0-3.25-1.20-170 in 195 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
|
|
$ |
24 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 304 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Although pitchers progress at different rates than hitters, Hamels is well on the good side of the development curve at age 26. Despite the rise in hit rates and ERA (see negatives) he was probably at least as good a pitcher in 2009 as he was in 2008 despite getting a slow start... Much has been made of Hamel's decline in strikeout rates each season prior to 2009, but if we view his 9.86 K/9 in 1332+ IP, his rookie season as the outlier, the following numbers 8.69, 7.76, 7.81 look stable... Oddly, Hamels fared much better in the hitting-friendly Citizens Bank park that on the road. We would expect that to turn around as it was in 2008 (see negatives re: his 2008 unearned runs at home)... If Hamels is healthy, you can expect big things from the lefty. 18-0-3.40-1.15-205 in 225 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
The contrast between Hamels' 2008 and and 2009 is less than it appears. Although it is true that his in-play rates were quite a lot worse in 2009 (BABIP of .325 vs. 2008's .270) the main issue here is that the home scorers decided to give Cole 8 unearned runs (vs. 3 on the road) in 2008 and a total of only 2 (1 each home and road) in 2009. Almost every other secondary number was the same or even slightly better (strikeout and walk rates, home run rates) in 2009. Like so many BABIP observations, this one turns out to be so much vapour when you examine the splits and see the line drive rates he put up while pitching early in the season having missed much of spring training... The bad news here is that Hamels is probably closer to the pitcher he was in 2009 than 2008. The good news is that that really isn't too bad, and he is reported to be healthy and on schedule to start the season. 13-0-3.80-1.25-180 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Cole Hamels has been a solid fantasy starting pitcher on a solid team. Expect to see his hit rates and road statistics stabilize and for the lefty to put in more than 200 IP. 18-0-3.50-1.20-200 in 220 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 91 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 323 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
K-Rod is the major league single-season record-holder in saves. And despite a bit of a tumble the past two seasons, he still strikes out around 10 per nine innings. As a 65-70 IP reliever, the non-elite WHIP is not really an issue and last season's 3.71 ERA was his first time over 3.00 since his rookie season as a set-up guy in Anaheim. He's pitching in a good park with a team that should enjoy quite a lot better health. You'd prefer a bit more help in the bullpen, but with Maine and Santana theoretically healthy, K-Rod should get more opportunities to pick up saves. 3-40-3.05-1.15-80 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
K/9 since 2007: 12.03, 10.14, 9.66 and although it is admittedly a small sample, he threw out a less than acceptable 6.75/1.42 line after the break last season. The Angels probably don't regret sending him out in the final week in non-save situations when the team had clinched the play-offs during his record breaking year, but perhaps the Mets have some thought on that. He looks like he is injured. 3-33-3.60-1.25-65 in 55 IP |
Analysis:
What does the major league season record holder in saves have to do to get a little respect? For one, stop walking five per nine innings pitched. Clearly K-Rod could be just a rung below the elite closers if he is healthy and the Mets deliver him opportunities. But (see negatives), he sure looks like there is something wrong. Perhaps the off-season has fixed it, and he was excellent before the break last season (23 saves 1.90 ERA), but there are likely other save options at this price, it's too much risk for too little impact on your staff. 3-35-3.50-1.20-73 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 88 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 316 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Dominating pitcher whose increased strikeout rate is perfectly in line with his minor league numbers. Limits hits and can survive elevated walk rates. Appears to be fully healthy and primed to become a Cy Young candidate. 20-0-3.00-1.05-240 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Theres' nothing to regress to. So if Gallardo fail it will be because of injuries. The worst that could be said is a return to his excellent 2009 levels. 13-0-3.73-1.31-204 in 185 IP |
Analysis:
Gallardo is a star. He was 23 last season and excelled while walking well over four a game. The only way you can do that is the way Gallardo did, which is to miss bats with 204 strikeouts and 150 hits over 185+ innings. Unlike pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez or Oliver Perez who become usable when they walk a few less, Gallardo was nearly a fantasy rotation anchor while he was walking a career high. Now watch what happens when he heads back to the 3.01 he was doing before last season. 18-0-3.15-1.10-220 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 89 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 333 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Kershaw was striking out people at 10+ a game as a 19 year old in double-A. His strikeout rate is real. He's tremendously hard to hit -- only 119 hits in 171 innings pitched -- so despite walking 4.79 per 9, he still was able to manage a healthy 1.23 WHIP. His minor league records suggest both these are real... and he's all of 22 years old in March. Although he cut his HR/FB more than in half, the 2008 totals look more like the statistical outlier -- and no surprise, given he was a 21-year-old with only 16 starts at double-A and no triple-A experience whatsoever. He's the real deal, and watch out if he can knock even a small amount off his walk rates. 18-0-3.20-1.20-210 in 190 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Kershaw is frustrating for fantasy owners. Because of his walk totals, he rarely worked late in games, and this affected his strikeout totals and amount of decisions he received. He can't be expected to maintain this home run rate and some regression in the hits allowed wouldn't be unexpected either. 10-0-3.65-1.40-190 in 170 IP |
Analysis:
Bill James devoted quite a bit of his early national career talking about how one gets to the Hall of Fame. And what he found that the three best ways to get there were to be a key member of a Yankee's championship team, a friend of (or contemporaneous with) certain members of the Veteran's Committee (under the rules in effect at that time) and most importantly, get to the big leagues EARLY. All those milestone numbers become harder and harder the later you arrive in the game.
Kershaw got to the bigs at age 20. He held his own and then some in 2008 and then was impressive in 2009 (even more impressive if you toss out his 7+ ERA first month). There's a long way to go and many stops along the way, but even if the train he is on doesn't go straight to Cooperstown, he's certainly on the right branch line.
It's reasonably obvious that his walks will be an impediment to him in all kinds of ways (see negatives), and for him to be a quality fantasy starter, he's going to have to start working more deeply into games, which will result in more strikeouts and more decisions per start. But when you are reaching triple digit pitches in the fifth inning, you are never going to get a lot of wins, and even a sparkling K rate won't get you a plus number of strikeouts.
We love Kershaw, but it's just a guess which year, if any, he'll be able to post 200 innings. When he does, he's likely to be amongst the very best fantasy properties. 15-0-3.45-1.30-200 in 180 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 90 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 340 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Cain should turn in an above average ERA, while finishing with very respectable totals in WHIP, K, and wins. Nothing too special. |
Negatives/Downside:
Cain was extremely lucky with his balls in play last season, and it's likely that doesn't last two years in a row. |
Analysis:
Cain is coming off a terrific season, but he faltered down the stretch. I would stay away from Cain, because it's unlikely that he can produce the same line as last year. He'll be a decent contributor all four pitching categories, but elite at none. There's very little difference between Cain and the starters going four rounds later. 13-0-3.30-1.25-170 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 92 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
23 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 211 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Soria will get you the saves you desire and even rack up an impressive strikeout total. 3-38-1.90-0.95-80 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Soria hit the DL last year and could be a repeat offender. Also, playing for the Royals will limit his save chances. 3-28-2.40-1.15-65 in 55 IP |
Analysis:
Soria should end up as a top-10 closer by year's end, but be careful spending too much for him. Playing for the Royals will offer less save opportunities than your average closer. 3-33-2.10-1.05-75 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 100 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
22 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 248 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Lackey has put together back-to-back solid seasons, and has really settled into the category of good-but-not-great starter. He'll get plenty of run support in Boston, which will help him win games, and he's a virtual lock to post a sub-4.00 ERA. 15-0-3.65-1.23-160 in 200 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Lackey's 2008 and 2009 numbers are nearly identical, but they signal a drop from his numbers the previous three seasons. He has taken a step back the past couple years, and although he is still a solid option, another regression is a possibility. Lackey never developed into the ace many thought he'd be. 13-0-3.85-1.28-140 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
John Lackey is one of those rare guys who makes an off-season move from one contender to another. Pitching in the AL East may be a little more brutal than the AL West, but not as much as you may think, thanks to the Orioles and Jays. I think Lackey improves his numbers some in 2010 and wins a few more games. 15-0-3.75-1.25-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 104 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
22 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 281 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Nolasco overcame a bumpy start by finishing 2009 with a flourish, posting a 7-2 record, 4.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in the second half -- while striking out 105 batters in 97.1 innings of work. Nolasco's 195 strikeouts was the seventh-best K total in the National league, and more of the same should be in store for 2010. 18-0-3.60-1.18-210 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
If "more of the same" includes another ERA of five-plus, then count us out. Even when he was going well last season, Nolasco was maddeningly inconsistent -- mixing strings of quality starts with occasional implosions. We need to see more before investing an extra dollar in Nolasco. 10-0-4.30-1.25-180 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Nolasco's inflated ERA of a season ago should hold his draft day price down, and that's a good thing -- for we believe the Marlins' right-hander is in for a fine season in 2010. 15-0-3.85-1.20-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 103 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
22 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 215 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bell is one of the better strikeout closers out there, so he'll be a factor in the overall totals. 5-38-2.80-1.10-80 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
42 saves is a lot. On an uninspiring Padres team, it's unlikely Bell repeats that gaudy total. many expect the Padres to trade him at the deadline, meaning he might go back to being a set-up man in August and September. 3-30-3.00-1.18-75 in 65 IP |
Analysis:
Heath Bell turned in a stellar 2009, finishing as a Top 5 closer. His excellent season will inflate his 2010 draft value so, despite his potential, you'll find better value deeper in the draft. 5-33-2.90-1.15-80 in 70 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 101 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
22 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 200 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jimenez usually ends up with a decision every time he takes the mound, good or bad. He could end up in the top-10 in strikeouts for the season has seen his ERA drop three straight years. 18-0-3.35-1.23-205 in 220 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
If you can't handle up and downs, look elsewhere. 13-0-3.95-1.35-190 in 200 IP |
Analysis:
Jimenez is horribly inconsistent, but can single-handedly make your week. If you don't mind rolling the dice on pitchers, Jimenez is definitely your guy. He's improved three straight years and could be on the cusp of a breakthrough. 15-0-3.65-1.28-200 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 102 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
22 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 206 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Before his injury Webb was an above average performer across the board. If he returns to form, Webb will could be the value pick that wins your season. 15-0-3.40-1.20-170 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Injuries of course. No one knows how he is going to rebound from his shoulder surgery, but it may not be good. 10-0-3.65-1.28-120 in 160 IP |
Analysis:
The uncertainty surrounding Webb's health will drop his value to the point where you can take a calculated risk on him. He reminds me of Chris Carpenter in last year's draft. He's primarily a sinker-baller who looks to makes batters pound the ball into the ground. Since Webb isn't a power pitcher, a return to form is more likely coming off an arm injury. 15-0-3.50-1.25-150 in 190 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 113 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 200 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bills reached 200Ks in 2008 as a 23 year old. So we would expect that, absent injury, he would attain that level again and again. The Dodger starting staff doesn't inspire confidence, but the bullpen was very effective. Barring a fire sale the offense should be a boon to the Dodger starters. He will not be an elite starter for fantasy purpose unless he is able to lower his walk rate. But despite that, even though it is not wonderful, Billingsley WHIP has been extremely reliable 1.33, 1.34 and 1.32 the past three seasons.
Further, Billinglsey's disastrous July (7.52 ERA) was due almost entirely to a strand rate for the month of 53.7% most of which can be laid at the door of the bullpen. 17-0-3.30-1.25-200K 210IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Although high walk rate pitchers can thrive (see Ryan, Nolan) they do narrow their own margin for failure. We've already mentioned his July where fully 25% of his earned runs came across the plate. Some of that can be laid at the door of the bullpen, but of course someone did put those runners on base. All those "small" changes would have made less of an impact on his ERA had he been pitching with fewer base runners. 12-0-4.10-1.35-180. 190IP |
Analysis:
Billingsley's record is veritable water-torture of small things going the wrong way, leading to a big thing going wrong. Billinglsey's strikeout, walk, HR/FB, GB/FB and strand rates all went the wrong direction - not much, but they all did. and as a result Billingsley's ERA jumped almost a full run.
Billngsley's 3.14 ERA in 2008 was a bit of a lucky result. His high walk rate generated a 1.34 WHIP which would normally translate to a higher figure, but Chad gave up a modest amount of home runs, kept the ball on the ground at a good rate and had an unusually good strand rate, So while you shouldn't expect that ERA unless he steps up the rest of his game, a return to close to that level should be in order. Like team mate Clayton Kershaw, the main obstacle between Bills and fantasy gold is the walk rate that elevates his pitch counts and prevents him from getting deep into games, so fewer total strikeout and Wins.
200Ks at 23a and just reaching 26 in July equals potential third round production for a ninth round pick. 16-0-3.50-1.30-200. 210IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 110 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 224 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
When Burnett is on, he is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. If he can keep it all together over the course of an entire season, he has the potential to be an elite option, especially pitching in the Bronx where wins will be aplenty. 18-0-3.90-1.30-200 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
When Burnett is off, he can be downright awful. He is too inconsistent to be relied on as anything more than a number two fantasy starter and has an extensive injury history. Yes, he has stayed healthy the past two seasons, but it seems like it is only a matter of time before injury strikes again. 13-0-4.20-1.38-155 in 170 IP |
Analysis:
When you take a step back and just look at Burnett's 2009 numbers, you'll see that they really weren't anything overly exciting, 13-4.04-0-195-1.40. He is far too inconsistent to post elite numbers, and even when he is dominant, he walks too many batters. I don't think his 2010 numbers are much better than his 2009 stats. 15-0-4.00-1.35-190 in 205 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 112 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 179 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Job security makes Cordero a highly sought after reliever. He won't blow you away in any category expect for saves. 3-38-2.80-1.30-70 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
2.18 '09 ERA was a mirage. He's getting up in age and could start losing some zip on his fastball. 3-30-3.40-1.40-50 in 58 IP |
Analysis:
Francisco Cordero has one of the safest gigs in all of baseball. If only the Reds could win more games... He makes a ton of money on team with a low payroll, with no one remotely capable behind him, and he does the job effectively enough. The only time he won't be closing games is if he's hurt. Cordero's the perfect closer for the player who doesn't want fish for saves all season long. 3-35-3.10-1.35-60 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 107 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 210 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Rodriguez exploded onto the fantasy scene in 2009, winning 14 games, posting an outstanding 3.02 ERA and fanning 193 batters in 205.2 innings of work. The Houston lefty delivered on the promise he had shown in his injury-shortened 2008 season, especially at home -- where he finished 9-3 with a stellar 2.08 ERA. If he continues to progress (and picks up some run support along the way), Rodriguez could become a top-notch starter this year. 15-0-3.10-1.23-200 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Wandy may have exploded onto the scene, but explosions have a way of ending badly. His '09 numbers were well below his career norms, and at age 31, his upside is limited. His walk rate is still a bit high, so his WHIP should remain rather elevated. Oh by the way, that awesome performance at home was offset by his awful 4.05 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. Holy lineup juggling, Batman. 10-0-3.85-1.33-160 in 185 IP |
Analysis:
Rodriguez is a well-know "homer" -- he has clearly been a different pitcher at Minute Maid Park each of the past three seasons, and until he solves his road woes, he's not likely to ascend into the realm of No. 1 fantasy starter. 13-0-3.45-1.28-185 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 111 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
21 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 181 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Bailey is fairly intriguing, because although the A's curtailed his innings as the season wore along, he was getting more than an inning a turn after he turned closer early in the season. As a result, the 91 strikeouts he posted don't look like a product of longer set-up appearances. Leading credence to believe his control was real, Bailey only walked two batters in 22 appearances from August on. If the improvement in control is real, and the A's continue to give him this much work (almost a necessity with the starting rotation currently on tap), Bailey looks like a poor man's Johnathan Broxton. 5-35-2.75-1.00-90 in 80 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
All that it would take for Bailey to become irrelevant would be for him to return to walking four a game as he did throughout his minor league career and giving up a normal number of home runs on his excessive fly ball rate. Worse, if Joey Devine is healthy and effective (he of the 0.59/0.83 in 2008) during a Bailey cold stretch, Bailey could lose the job altogether. 5-20-3.50-1.30-75 in 65 IP |
Analysis:
The A's started 2009 with two leading candidates to be their closer (Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler) and ended up with a third, Bailey, saving 26 games. Bailey, who was mainly a starter at Wagner College and then through the lower minors, was converted into a reliever during the 2008 season at double-A Midland, where he enjoyed only mixed success. He rode into the Arizona Fall League where he was, in an admittedly small sample, lights out, earning himself a ticket to the majors and eventually the plum bullpen role.
He was so good that neither Ziegler (terrific in '08 but not generally thought of as more than a fill-in closer) and Devine (who was also good in 2008 and had been groomed as the closer) are talked about as this season's closer despite pro forma "competition is open" kinds of talk.
There are some reason to be nervous about his repeating the 1.84/0.88 line of 2009. He walked only 2.59 per inning, which was by far his lowest mark (only equaled in his junior year of college), and he had a stingy 5.6 HR/FB mark. A more normal HR/FB rate is 10% and Bailey is a fly ball type pitcher, so a change there could hurt. Even so, pitchers often have better control when converted to relief, as they use a smaller collection of their pitches, and HR/FB rates are notorious for not regressing on a season-by-season basis. It's a pretty mild cautionary.
The prime question for Bailey seems to be whether the A's will deliver save opportunities to the ninth inning. Given the composition of their rotation (not a good sign when you sign Jason Jennings and Brett Tomko on the same day) there looks to be plenty of bullpen work, but saves?
We like Bailey. 5-30-3.00-1.15-75 in 70 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 117 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
20 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 209 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Job security. The Tigers made the move to get Valverde because their bullpen is pretty dreadful. Valverde should be in line for 35-45 save chances while helping your ratios and strikeout numbers. 3-40-2.50-1.10-70 in 65 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Playing on the Tigers. Because of their brutal bullpen Valverde could see fewer save opportunities than he's accustom to. Detroit's leads may not make it to him in the 9th inning. 3-30-3.10-1.20-65 in 55 IP |
Analysis:
Jose Valverde takes over the closer job for the Tigers this season after Fernando Rodney left via free agency. Look for Valverde to rack up a good number of saves for the Tigers. He should be able to post above average ratios, while striking out around a batter per inning. 3-35-2.90-1.15-65 in 60 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 118 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
20 |
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$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 198 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Marmol has some of the best stuff in the game and strikes out a ton a guys for a reliever (93 in 74 IP in 09). With Kevin Gregg out of Chicago, and the Cubs likely to win more games in 2010, Marmol should be able to double the 15 saves he recorded in the 2009. He is clearly one of the more intriguing young arms in the game. 3-35-3.10-1.25-95 in 75 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Walks. Lots of walks. In his 74 IP last year, Marmol walked 65 batters. For perspective, he only allowed 43 hits. The huge walks total will prevent him from posting a great WHIP. Last year it was 1.46, and giving guys free bases is a great way to blow saves. 3-25-3.55-1.40-90 in 70 IP |
Analysis:
Marmol needs to learn to tone it down some. His intensity leads to the control problems I discussed, but I think he learns to harness his incredible stuff this year. I like Marmol to outproduce his cost/draft position. 3-30-3.25-1.30-95 in 75 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 125 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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$ |
20 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 183 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Wilson pitches a lot of innings and can provide help in WHIP and strikeouts on top of saves. 3-40-2.95-1.1.20-85 in 73 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Because the Giants turn to Wilson in non-save opportunities, he comes up with a fair share of losses. If your league counts losses, you may want to look in a different direction. 3-30-3.65-1.30-70 in 60 IP |
Analysis:
This Brian Wilson may not pump out jams like Good Vibrations and Surfin' USA, but he should pile up the saves anyways. Wilson might possibly hurt your ERA, but he'll be an excellent contributor in K and WHIP. 3-35-3.15-1.25-80 in 70 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 119 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
20 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 203 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Street is a flamethrower and should get a ton of save changes on a quality Rockies team. He'll help in saves, K, and WHIP, while not killing your ERA. 5-35-3.20-1.10-70 in 65 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Injuries have plagued Street in the past, but two consecutive seasons at full strength would have me believe those days are behind him. 5-35-3.20-1.10-70 in 65 IP |
Analysis:
Street is back and has a crew of fireballers setting him up to make sure the lead is still there by the time the ninth comes around. He should have a good chance of improving on his 35 saves from last year. 5-35-3.20-1.10-70 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 124 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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$ |
20 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 198 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Saves. The Angels plays a lot of close games, which gives Fuentes ample opportunity to pile them up. 3-45-3.10-1.20-55 in 60 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
His ERA & WHIP are borderline embarrassing for a closer, and with his heavy volume of innings, they'll actually hurt your overall totals. And he could lose his job. 3-25-4.00-1.40-45 in 60 IP |
Analysis:
Fuentes did lead the league in saves with 48, but his ERA and WHIP got out of control. I don’t expect the Angles to be nearly as good as last year with their loss of talent plus the improvement of the division's other teams, so look for his opportunities to diminish. The signing of Fernando Rodney would lead me to believe that Fuentes may not have the long leash that he had in 2009. 3-35-3.60-1.30-50 in 60 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 136 |
Recommendation: Avoid |
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$ |
19 |
|
$ |
0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 203 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Weaver has a nose for wins -- he's been in double digits for all of his four major league seasons. He'll produce a quality number of strikeouts, but nothing that will both you away. If your league counts complete games, upgrade Weaver a bit. 18-0-3.60-1.25-175 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Consistency continues to plague Weaver, causing his ERA to perennially inflated. 13-0-4.00-1.35-165 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Jered Weaver is inconsistent. If you could find a way to weed out his terrible starts, he'd be rather legendary. But as it is, he's just resigned to being a pitcher that wins you some weeks and loses you others. He's currently going around the same time as Brandon Webb and Wandy Rodriguez -- both better options. 15-0-3.80-1.30-170 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 126 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 195 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Jurrjens posted the fifth-best ERA among major league starting pitchers last season, and at just 24 years of age, still has considerable upside. His WHIP dropped significantly last season, while his walk rate showed a modest decrease over his rookie season of 2008. Jurrjens doesn't attract much attention, but his respectable K rate and improving command should mean that more good things are in store for 2010. 15-0-3.05-1.23-170 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Jurrjens' command may have improved a bit last season, but he won't be mistaken for Greg Maddux any time soon. His BABIP of .268 last season will be tough to replicate, so it's easy to imagine him falling back in 2010. 10-0-3.70-1.35-140 in 195 IP. |
Analysis:
Jurrjens is a solid major league starting pitcher, but he won't light it up in any specific category. ERA is where he'll provide the most help, along with a decent strikeout rate. Don't overpay for last year's numbers, but you could do worse than Jurrjens as your No. 4 fantasy starting pitcher. 13-0-3.40-1.30-155 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 127 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 201 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Soriano flashed some dominant stuff in 2009, saving 27 games in 31 chances for Atlanta, while holding opposing batters to a BA of .194. His trade to Tampa Bay and subsequent $7.25 million contract guarantees him a stranglehold on the closer job for at least the foreseeable future. The Rays typically generate plenty of closing chances, as their relievers combined for 63 save opportunities in '09. Soriano could be the missing piece in a bullpen that blew an unacceptable 22 save chances in 2009, and his wicked stuff could produce some very strong numbers in '10.
5-35-2.65-1.10-95 in 80 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Soriano has battled shoulder and elbow problems his entire career and missed a big chunk of the 2008 season due to an elbow problem that eventually required surgery. While he has been very effective when healthy, his inability to consistently stay on the field should make a potential fantasy owner very leery indeed. 3-15-3.40-1.20-45 in 55 IP. |
Analysis:
Two words are the key with Soriano: "If healthy." There is no doubting his closer's stuff, and he should rack up plenty of saves as the Rays' ninth-inning man -- as long as he can stay on the field. While it wouldn't surprise us to see Soriano spend some time on the DL, we're willing to bet that he remains healthy enough to be a useful fantasy reliever this year. 5-30-2.85-1.15-80 in 65 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 135 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 191 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
If Aardsma can keep his 2009 momentum going into this year, he'll be an excellent source of saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. 3-38-3.10-1.20-80 in 70 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
2009 could have been a mirage and Aardsma falls back to earth this season. 3-20-3.90-1.50-60 in 50 IP |
Analysis:
Aardsma is currently the 15th closer coming off the board despite his highly successful 2009 campaign. I’m a huge proponent of waiting for closers in the middle-to-late rounds, and Aardsma is a guy who can be had for cheap and produce like a #1 closer. 3-33-3.30-1.30-70 in 60 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 135 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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19 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 205 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
What started off as an open audition for the closer job last season ended when Franklin ran away with the job. He finished with tremendous numbers, including a sub-2.00 ERA and 38 saves. Closing games for one of the NL's best will guarantee plenty of save opportunities again in 2010. 3-35-2.80-1.20-40 in 60 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Prior to his tremendous 2009 season, Ryan Franklin was nothing more than a serviceable set-up man. He'd had some good seasons but just as many mediocre ones. At 36, it looked like he was going to finish out his career with a couple of more years pitching in middle relief. Once given the opportunity, Franklin certainly stepped up last season, but a big regression is likely. 3-20-3.60-1.40-35 in 55 IP |
Analysis:
Franklin is the latest of Dave Duncan's projects, and this one earns an A+ in my book. However, it is clear that Franklin is not as good of a pitcher as his 2009 totals reflect. If Franklin falters, it wouldn't be the first time one of Duncan's projects ended up being a one year wonder. Plus, with young arms like Jason Motte waiting in the trenches, Franklin's leash will probably be shorter than most guys coming off of 38-save seasons. 3-30-3.10-1.30-40 in 60 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 133 |
Recommendation: Only at a discount |
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Hits: 220 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Oswalt posted an ERA above 4.00 for the first time in his nine-year career last season, and he is focused on bouncing back in 2010. A new workout regimen will hopefully alleviate the back problems that caused him to be shut down in September, and a little more support from his bullpen and offense should boost his win total this season. 15-0-3.35-1.20-160 in 210 IP. |
Negatives/Downside:
Uhm, who exactly is the closer in Houston these days? The 'Stros threw big bucks at Brandon Lyon to be a set-up man, but, after all, he is still Brandon Lyon. There are a lot of miles on Oswalt's tires, and his slight frame does not inspire confidence that he'll make it through the season without a DL stint or two. 11-0-3.75-1.30-130 in 175 IP |
Analysis:
Despite his dismal season, Oswalt's peripheral numbers were still solid last year -- so a bounceback could indeed be in order for '10. Don't reach for Oz, as both his bullpen and offense figure to be woeful this year. He does, however, present a fine buy-low opportunity as your draft enters those awkward teen rounds. 13-0-3.45-1.25-150 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 148 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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18 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 200 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
A rocky second half inflated Shields' 2009 numbers, but over the past two and a half seasons he had been one of baseball's more consistent starting pitchers. A jump in his BABIP may have been the culprit for his second-half swoon, but it's worth noting that he still posted a very respectable walk rate and K/BB ratio. that crummy second half will lower Shields' draft day price, and he's definitely a bargain worth grabbing. 15-0-3.85-1.20-170 in 215 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
That second-half nosedive might have been a run of bad luck, or perhaps the league was catching up to Shields. He relies heavily on a great change-up as his out pitch, and if a hitter guesses right -- and he doesn't spot it well -- bad things happen. 11-0-4.35-1.30-145 in 195 IP |
Analysis:
Shields didn't post those two fine seasons in '07 and '08 by accident -- and his 3.42 ERA in the first half of '09 was no mirage, either. He's not fooling as many hitters as he used to: his BAA has climbed each of the past two seasons. Still, Shields is a quality major league pitcher, and he is well worth grabbing after a dozen rounds or so have gone by the boards. 13-0-4.00-1.25-160 in 210 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 149 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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Hits: 230 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Baker's a command guy who also gets strikeouts, making him an attractive fantasy option. He should be able to provide an excellent WHIP once again, similar to last year's 1.19 mark. An improved Twins offense will help him maintain strong win totals, and he may benefit from moving to Target Field, where cool temperatures in the beginning and end other season could adversely affect offense. |
Negatives/Downside:
Limiting home runs is a challenge for Baker, and his HR/9 rate has increased modestly over the last three seasons. If he can't improve on this, his ERA will end up over 4.00 again, rather than returning to its 2008 level of 3.45. Opposing hitters' BABIP against Baker was down a bit in 2009, another cause for concern with respect to Baker's ERA. |
Analysis:
Last season, Baker enjoyed some buzz heading into fantasy drafts as some projected a breakout on the heels of an impressive 2008. Even if it's more likely he posts an ERA over, rather than under, 4.00 this year, Baker is an asset as a starting pitcher who will make positive contributions in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP. 14-0-4.20-1.18-160 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 142 |
Recommendation: Buy at cost |
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18 |
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0.0 (0) |
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Hits: 237 0 |
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Positives/Upside:
Garza pitched in some tough luck last season, garnering only eight wins despite a decent 3.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 203 innings of work. His strikeout rate increased significantly over 2008, and his .233 BAA should tell you all you need to know about this up-and-comer's wicked stuff. 14-0-3.60-1.22-185 in 210 IP |
Negatives/Downside:
Garza still has problems away from Tropicana Field, as his ERA ballooned to 4.85 on the road last season. His walk rate jumped dramatically last year, and until he gains better command he won't be thought of as a budding fantasy ace. 10-0-4.20-1.29-165 in 190 IP |
Analysis:
Garza possesses ace-quality stuff, and if he learns to spot it well, he could be a fearsome fantasy force. There is still upside here, and Garza certainly has the potential to post breakout numbers in 2010. An improved Rays bullpen and better run support should get him back into double-digit win territory. 12-0-3.85-1.25-175 in 200 IP |
| Recommended Draft Position: 141 |
Recommendation: Go the extra dollar |
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