Call it a gut reaction, but I’m just not feeling it. Especially not as the 5th running back coming off the board. I just don’t trust him. The whole goal with first round picks is to make sure you avoid risk, and Turner just reeks of it. He’s a 28 year old running back coming off an ankle injury that basically cost him the season’s second half. Why basically? Well, after suffering the injury against the Panthers in week 9, Turner just couldn’t remain on the field. He returned two week later against the Bucs, struggled, then was removed from the game. Turner was all set to go at the Meadowlands week 15 but could only muster one carry. We learned quickly after the game that his season was finished. This was news that fantasy owned could have used back in week nine, instead we got six weeks of false hope. Turner doesn’t have a storied history of injury problems and he’s had ample time to recover, but I’ve plugged his scenario into my bust formula and found some troubling results:

RB is running back

IA is Injured Ankle

Bust is Michael Turner

See. Story checks out. Beyond the ankle, I still have some grievances I need to get off my chest. As much as Turner apologists will try to convince you, he doesn’t present the type of consistency that a first round pick needs to have. Two years ago, Turner’s breakout season, he totaled 1699 yds, and 17 TD. A season for the ages. But a close examination of that season will reveal some startling numbers. Of the 1699 yds, 532 of them came in games against the 0-16 Lions, 2-14 Chiefs, and 2-14 Rams -- 31% of his yards. 6 of his 17 touchdowns came in those three games as well -- 35%. You can’t fault Turner for a joke schedule, but I’m convinced that no team in football is as awful as those three teams were. Those stats probably won you three weeks in 2008, but these type of performances make him up and down every week. It’s basically a more productive version of the Santana Moss Effect (which we’ll talk about later). 

Bust may be too strong a word for Turner and I think that ranking him inside the top ten shows that, but there is no scenario I can envision that will have me calling his name at the draft this season. If you want Turner, you’ll have to give up a first round selection (or a bunch of cash early on in auctions) for his services. That’s far too steep a price to pay for a running back that will be inconsistent and poses injuries concerns. There’s far too much risk involved with selecting Turner and that drops him out of the first round for me. Give me Andre Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, or Frank Gore at pick five instead. 

When Williams found out his season was over with, again, ankle problems, I think we all got a clear look at the future in Carolina. The Daily Show, Jonathan Stewart. Coming off the injury, and into a contract year, this will be the last year we see The Angel-O in a Panthers uniform. This season, expect more of the same from this two headed bulldozer -- basically a 50/50 split of the carries. I’m sure John Fox will ride a hot hand in game, his job is on the line, but at the end of the year, all things being equal, the totals will be around each other across the board. I’ll keep this short and sweet. DeAngelo is massively overvalued because of Jonathan Stewart. I like Stewart better anyways, but for guys who carry the ball equally and run behind the same offensive line; why not take the one who comes at a discount? Stewart is currently the 17th selected running back in drafts -- 32nd overall --  and will produce eerily similar stats. Do yourself a favor. Say no to Williams, take Stewart. 

Sure he has upside, but this is backfield that still has more members than the Jeff Sanford Cartoon Jazz Orchestra. Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats and eugenics enthusiast Arian Foster all made an impact at one time or another last season and all three are still in Houston. If anything, is just more evidence that Gary Kubiak’s propensity to switch running backs mid-game at the first sign of trouble is here to stay. The starter really could be any one of the four. Tate could very well emerge as the guy, but I’m just not willing to make that bet where’s he going. Currently, Tate is going around the same pick as Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Jerome Harrison -- not guys I love, but certainly have far more value than Tate. The sixth round is just far too high for someone who will labor to find playing time. If you want to point out that the Texans’ used a second round selection on him, go ahead. They did the same thing to Steve Slaton two years ago and seem to have given up on him rather quickly. Because the starter’s job is such a crap shoot, the better value resides with Foster and Moats -- both going after pick 175. You assume far too much risk drafting Tate this high. If he starts falling down draft boards as we get closer to kickoff, let’s say to the 8th round and below, that’s good value on his potential.