Bailey, Andrew

The A's started 2009 with two leading candidates to be their closer (Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler) and ended up with a third, Bailey, saving 26 games. Bailey, who was mainly a starter at Wagner College and then through the lower minors, was converted into a reliever during the 2008 season at double-A Midland, where he enjoyed only mixed success. He rode into the Arizona Fall League where he was, in an admittedly small sample, lights out, earning himself a ticket to the majors and eventually the plum bullpen role.

He was so good that neither Ziegler (terrific in '08 but not generally thought of as more than a fill-in closer) and Devine (who was also good in 2008 and had been groomed as the closer) are talked about as this season's closer despite pro forma "competition is open" kinds of talk.

There are some reason to be nervous about his repeating the 1.84/0.88 line of 2009. He walked only 2.59 per inning, which was by far his lowest mark (only equaled in his junior year of college), and he had a stingy 5.6 HR/FB mark. A more normal HR/FB rate is 10% and Bailey is a fly ball type pitcher, so a change there could hurt. Even so, pitchers often have better control when converted to relief, as they use a smaller collection of their pitches, and HR/FB rates are notorious for not regressing on a season-by-season basis. It's a pretty mild cautionary.

The prime question for Bailey seems to be whether the A's will deliver save opportunities to the ninth inning. Given the composition of their rotation (not a good sign when you sign Jason Jennings and Brett Tomko on the same day) there looks to be plenty of bullpen work, but saves?

We like Bailey. 5-30-3.00-1.15-75 in 70 IP