Santana, Johan

- Starting Pitcher, New York Mets

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Baseball Player Info

NL
Age	32
Bats or Throws	Left

Editor review

Santana delivers, a swing and a riff

Dollar Value:

Reviewed by JSchuman
February 22, 2010
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In 2001, Pedro Martinez experienced arm woes and was only able to tally 116+ IP. In the process, he threw up some freakish strikeout totals over the first two months of the season -- 121 K in 81 IP, which was well over his career rate. June went to hell and, unlike Santana, Pete was unable to continue much farther, making four starts in June and then a handful at the end of the year. It's eerily familiar to Santana's situation last season (Pedro was 29, Santana 30 coming into last season) with years of overuse, an initial period of extreme strikeouts (see positives), and then injury.

The good news is that Pedro came back the following year to post one of his top two or three years, going 20-4 with a 2.26 ERA and 239 strikeouts. You'll want to watch Johan's fly ball rates (in this case going down probably being an indication that he is switching pitches to save his arm), but there's every precedent here for excellence.

Although there are significant questions in the bullpen, and defensive metrics distinctly do not like this team (Jason Bay is rated as one of the worst outfielders, and even David Wright, who has such a good reputation, showed up poorly on the defensive metrics in 2009), there's every indication Santana will perform in this park. Moderate your bid, but he is currently going at a bargain price for his potential. 15-0-3.20-1.15-210 in 220 IP

Positives / Upside	Santana is only 31, and prior to the elbow woes retuning, he was en route to his best season since his tenure with Minnesota. Through May, Santana had struck out 86 batters in 66 innings with an ERA below 2.00. He's not the same thrower he was as a kid in Minnie, but he's clearly still a top pitcher when healthy. Even after the elbow started acting up, Santana was still, except for a couple of starts in June, a perfectly usable fantasy pitcher. Santana's stuff is so good that he was able to turn from a devastating strikeout style (withstanding 70%+ fly balls plus line drives) to a more ground ball oriented approach as the wheels didn't quite come off in July and August. Santana is healthy, despite a report of Santana icing down his elbow (as pitchers do after workouts) causing his ADP to drop through the floor. Citi is a great field for Santana, as it depressed the one negative of the fly ball style -- the home run. Even in an "off" year, Santana posted a 2.43-1.10 in Citi, and that's not too bad, I would say. 18-0-3.05-1.10-220 in 230 IP
Negatives / Downside	Santana was a real trooper last season, pitching with an obvious arm problem for a couple of months before shutting it down as the Mets finally succumbed to the freakish number of injuries. The real concern here remains health. After posting six straight seasons with K rates well over a K an inning, but 230 IP each year, Santana moved to the NL, where one could expect that facing the pitcher, he would have even more success. He was very good of course, but the K rate dropped below 8 (often a sign of injury or coming injury) and, well, here we are. 10-0-3.75-1.25-130 in 140 IP
Recommendation	Buy at cost
Draft Position	46