Peavy, Jake

- Starting Pitcher, Chicago White Sox

0.0 (0)

Baseball Player Info

NL
Age	30
Bats or Throws	Right

Editor review

Two Jakes

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Reviewed by SteveP
February 23, 2010
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Last updated: February 23, 2010

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This Jake plays in a hitters park facing the DH and That Jake played in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks ever. But This Jake still doesn't give up hits, is still stingy with the long ball (far better than average even on the road), and is likely to K close to 9/9 even without facing the pitcher. Plus, he's playing on a better team.

That's not to say you want to spend as if he was Tim Lincecum, nor expect that he will perform that way -- but I'd take him before a closer or a power challenged OF (without balancing speed). 18-0-3.00-1.05-195 in 210 IP

Positives / Upside	In trying to predict AL/NL switches for pitchers, there are a couple of things to keep in mind. Strikeout-types will tend to benefit more from facing the pitchers in the NL, and pitchers who don't give up hits will suffer less moving to the junior circuit. Although Peavy is a fine strikeout pitcher, the main reason he succeeds is that he doesn't allow hits -- 7.72/9 for his career. He should continue to be one of the top pitchers in baseball. Peavy, like most pitchers, gives up more home runs outside of Petco than in, but aside from 2008, the split has been pretty mild and his overall rates outside of Petco are well above league average in any case. Further, Peavy's 3.45 ERA last season was almost entirely a fluke. His WHIP and HR rates were better than 2008 when he posted a 2.85. Peavy's numbers should translate very well from the NL into the AL. 18-0-2.90-1.05-200 in 215 IP
Negatives / Downside	The percentage call on Peavy would be to take last year's results and round up due to the move to AL and from a run-sucking vortex like Petco into a moderately healthy hitter's park. Even if he doesn't give up hits, This Jake isn't facing the pitcher, and that means at least 0.5 fewer K's per start, so perhaps 15 or 16 fewer then That Jake if he can remain healthy the bulk of the season. So That 215 K Peavy becomes This 200 K Peavy, and while still good, in combination with the expected hit on ERA and WHIP, that puts him down to the next tier. 15-0-3.30-1.15-175 in 190 IP
Recommendation	Go the extra dollar
Draft Position	82