Duke, Zach

- Starting Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Baseball Player Info

NL
Age	26
Bats or Throws	Left

Editor review

Lame Duke

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Reviewed by SteveP
March 10, 2010
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Last updated: March 10, 2010

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Zach Duke came up at age 22 and posted a 1.81ERA and a shiny 10-3 record for the Bucs. In the process he struck out 6.2 per nine innings and people complained. That rate turned out to be optimistic and Duke hasn't been able to generate so much as a five per nine rate ever since.

The old Axiom is that a pitcher can have a single year below 4.5 strikeouts per nine and still succeed, but under 4.5 and you reall have no shot. Duke has been south of that number since 2006, and you'd be hard-pressed to call what he has done a success. He has excellent control and throws a lot of ground balls and that was what helped him to a 4.05 ERA last season. Given that he turns 27 in April, you wouldn't exactly say that he can't succeed. But if you bet against that strikeout rate in and of itself, you'd be right 95% of the time. 8-0-4.50-1.40-80. 180IP

Positives / Upside	Duke averaged 6-2/3's innings per start in 2009. As long as a pitcher does that he will generate decisions (27 decisions in 32 starts in 2009) and even a terrible pitcher will get some wins. It's the Pirates of course, and their bullpen is still terrible so it won't be a lot, but still. If he pitches that number of innings he also won't be that far off the strikeout numbers posted by the Jon Garlands of this world. 11-0-4.00-1.35-100. 210IP
Negatives / Downside	In innings limited worlds, Zach is poisonous at his 2009 rate of 4.48 strikeouts per nine, and that was his high mark over the past three seasons. Given the Pirates won't win and he can't miss bats so is unlikely to post anything resembling a decent WHIP and you have a pitcher to avoid. 6-0-4.90-1.45-65. 145IP
Recommendation	Buy at cost
Draft Position	430