Dotel, Octavio

Many moons ago Octavio Dotel was the annointed closer in waiting for the Mets, the Astros, then the Athletics and it just never really happened, his one real shot being in 2004 with decidedly mixed results, blown saves and a general consensus that closing was not for him. Now Dotel is 36 and will get the chance once more.

The question is whether he will succeed.

A prime quality for a closer is his ability to strike people out. A strikeout generally means an inherited runner doesn't score - at least on that play. Dotel does this in spades with a career strikeout rate of nearly 11. But it's about the only thing on his resume that resembles closer material. He's an extreme flyball pitcher so that even though his HR/FB isn't out of the ordinary most seasons, he has so many more flyballs that the number of home runs he allows is simply unacceptable. For reference Mariano Rivera's career HR rate is .5 per nine IP, Joe Nathan .83 - Dotel puts out a neat little 1.16. This on top of his 5.20 BB per nine and you have a formula for disaster.

You can't assume that a closer for a bad team will not get saves, Chad Cordero's good year for the Nationals and Joakim Soria's 2008 season for the hapless Royals jump to mind, but it certainly does not help the odds. 6-20-3.50-1.40-75. 60IP