Billingsley, Chad

- Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Baseball Player Info

NL
Age	26
Bats or Throws	Right

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Itemized Billingsley

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Reviewed by SteveP
February 25, 2010
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Billingsley's record is veritable water-torture of small things going the wrong way, leading to a big thing going wrong. Billinglsey's strikeout, walk, HR/FB, GB/FB and strand rates all went the wrong direction - not much, but they all did. and as a result Billingsley's ERA jumped almost a full run.

Billngsley's 3.14 ERA in 2008 was a bit of a lucky result. His high walk rate generated a 1.34 WHIP which would normally translate to a higher figure, but Chad gave up a modest amount of home runs, kept the ball on the ground at a good rate and had an unusually good strand rate, So while you shouldn't expect that ERA unless he steps up the rest of his game, a return to close to that level should be in order. Like team mate Clayton Kershaw, the main obstacle between Bills and fantasy gold is the walk rate that elevates his pitch counts and prevents him from getting deep into games, so fewer total strikeout and Wins.

200Ks at 23a and just reaching 26 in July equals potential third round production for a ninth round pick. 16-0-3.50-1.30-200. 210IP

Positives / Upside	Bills reached 200Ks in 2008 as a 23 year old. So we would expect that, absent injury, he would attain that level again and again. The Dodger starting staff doesn't inspire confidence, but the bullpen was very effective. Barring a fire sale the offense should be a boon to the Dodger starters. He will not be an elite starter for fantasy purpose unless he is able to lower his walk rate. But despite that, even though it is not wonderful, Billingsley WHIP has been extremely reliable 1.33, 1.34 and 1.32 the past three seasons. Further, Billinglsey's disastrous July (7.52 ERA) was due almost entirely to a strand rate for the month of 53.7% most of which can be laid at the door of the bullpen. 17-0-3.30-1.25-200K 210IP
Negatives / Downside	Although high walk rate pitchers can thrive (see Ryan, Nolan) they do narrow their own margin for failure. We've already mentioned his July where fully 25% of his earned runs came across the plate. Some of that can be laid at the door of the bullpen, but of course someone did put those runners on base. All those "small" changes would have made less of an impact on his ERA had he been pitching with fewer base runners. 12-0-4.10-1.35-180. 190IP
Recommendation	Go the extra dollar
Draft Position	110