Reyes, Jose

On the face of it, the risks surrounding Jose Reyes seem to overwhelm his potential value to a fantasy owner. After all, so much of his value is tied to the stolen bases generated by those knotted up legs, right? Well, yes and no. Let's look at the risk.

Stolen bases don't equate well with runs scored, on-base percentage and batting position do. Carl Crawford has stolen over 50 bases five times, yet scored 100 runs only twice in his fine career (the years when he was predominantly a lead-off man). When Ian Kinsler scored 101 runs with an OBP of .327, it was the just third time in the past decade that any player with an OBP of less than .330 scored 100. Jose Reyes isn't an on-base machine by any means, but he'll be batting third behind quality batters and then shift to lead-off when Beltran arrives. He's had had one of the most consistent walk rates amongst big leaguers since he "got it" in 2006. He'll get his runs even if he doesn't steal.

And if he spends a significant stretch in the three hole, as it seems likely with Beltran missing because of a controversial knee surgery, he could add-on some to his RBI totals. So what does Reyes look like in case he can't run? 100+ runs, 70-80 RBI, maybe 20 steals? (If those numbers look familiar, they should because that's what the top shortstops are looking at unless their name is Hanley, Troy or Rollins... and it's not far off Rollins even if Reyes doesn't run.

Price is everything here. If Reyes doesn't run he'll earn about as much as Derek Jeter (except in BA) and if he does run he instantly becomes lottery. So if Reyes' price tag drops, it seems like an excellent opportunity. We think he'll run some and out-earn every shortstop except Hanley .290-100-15-75-35 in 580 ABs