Ethier, Andre

- Outfield, Los Angeles Dodgers

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Baseball Player Info

NL
Age	29
Bats or Throws	Left

Editor review

Ethier like him or not

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Reviewed by SteveP
February 22, 2010
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Last updated: February 22, 2010

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Many people remarked on the contrast between Andre Ethier's performance with Manny Ramirez than without him in 2008 and predicted similar results for 2009. Owners were generally rewarded for doing so, however Ethier had an even larger inconsistency in previous seasons without Manny being involved. Ethier is capable of performing with the best sluggers out there for long stretches of time, followed by weeks and weeks of lack of production. On balance, the 28 year-old (in April) will produce season-end numbers that make him just a rung below the top groups of outfielders. Just remember to carry plenty of antacid.

Ethier's numbers against left-handers are very poor and have declined each year to a sub-Mendoza performance last season with a correspondingly bad .629 OPS. Although in general it's not a good practice to consider "protection" in real baseball or fantasy, for players with Ethier's increasingly extreme split, he's a lot more likely to find pitches in RBI situations with a big right-handed hitter hitting behind him (and here were are talking about Manny Ramirez). Placement in the order will be very important for Ethier

Watch also Ethier's fly ball rate (use the fly balls separated from line drives), as this should give you a good idea whether Ethier will be the .300/20 home run version or the .275/30 home run version. .275-95-30-105-5 in 600 AB

Positives / Upside	Ethier has increased his home run totals each year that he has played, posting 31 in 2009. Part of that is increased at-bats, but Ethier also put the ball in the air with greater regularity -- a significant 0.92 GB/FB, compared with 1.3 in the previous two seasons. Almost 10% more of his AB resulted in fly balls, and that means more home runs. Whether he can carry that over (or if it is desirable, see: negatives) is another question, but the extra fly balls came mainly at the expense of line drives, so presumably a regression would mean a return to a higher batting average. Ethier drove in 106 runs despite batting only .250 with RISP. It's hard to predict RISP, but were he to increase his efficiency there, a high RBI total would follow. Ethier turns 28 in April, so he is in the prime of his productive career. He's maddeningly inconsistent, but is so good (21 home runs and 57 RBI in 78 games from June to August last season) when hot that one can afford to wait out the lean stretches. .270-95-35-110-5 in 600 AB
Negatives / Downside	Much of Ethier's value is predicated on two things -- his ability to stay in the middle of the batting order and his ability to put the ball in the air. The Dodgers are notorious in in using different lineups daily, and with Ethier's propensity to disappear, that could mean many at bats in non-productive slots. If he returns to his previous fly ball rates, he becomes a 20 home run, .290 hitter, rather than a .270-something, 30 home run hitter -- a trade-off few fantasy owners would take. .280-75-20-80-5 in 525 AB
Recommendation	Buy at cost
Draft Position	36