NFL - 2010 Fantasy Football 9/1/10 IDP Expert League Draft Analysis

Posted by: SteveP

SteveP

On Wednesday, September 1, 2010, RotoCommunity.com participated in a fantasy football league with the other industry experts, called the RotoCommunity Triple Crown Football IDP League. League rules include PPR scoring with 13 starters and 7 reserves (Q-R-R-W-W-W-T R/W/T-K-DL-LB-DB-DL/LB/DB). CLICK HERE to visit the league site.

 

MY TEAM

  • Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
  • Benson, Cedric RB CIN; Brown, Ronnie RB MIA; Forsett, Justin RB SEA; Harrison, Jerome RB CLE; Bush, Michael RB OAK; Jennings, Rashad RB JAC
  • Wayne, Reggie WR IND; Crabtree, Michael WR SF; Edwards, Braylon WR NYJ; Williams, Mike WR TB; Murphy, Louis WR OAK; Rice, Sidney WR MIN
  • Miller, Heath TE PIT Olsen, Greg TE CHI
  • Crosby, Mason K GB; Umenyiora, Osi DL NYG; Odom, Antwan DL CIN; James, Bradie LB DAL; Tillman, Charles DB CHI

 

ANALYSIS 

We here at RotoCommunity were really pleased to have such a strong field of experts and our 'regular guy' Scott Gilroy assembled for this season's Triple Crown IDP league. This league uses IDP and no team defense with PPR, as a result the top 25 scoring players from last season included 11 Quarterbacks, 5 RB, 8 WR and 1 TE. The roster set was 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR 1 TE and a RB/WR/TE flex. Only the very top tier of running backs score more than the top 10-15 receivers, and a more rank-and-file NFL starting tailback will score slightly less.

Round one

Michael Turner, grabbed by Tim McCullough of RotoExperts was the main surprise here. Turner is primed for a good season, but is a less likely proposition in a PPR league. Ray Rice dropped to 5th after FantasyFootballSherpa grabbing Andre Johnson. Last season Rice scored 308 points vs. the Texan's studly wide-out's 306. In this format the bottom end running backs score slightly less than the bottom end Wide Receivers so it made sense for the Sherpa's to grab one of the top end receivers for the flexibility to go either way on the on the WR/RB/TE flex position later on. In non-PPR leagues it would be cut and dried that you would find a starting running back for that position.

Our Pick: Aaron Rodgers. Although Rodgers is generally overpriced this season, he was still the #1 points scorer for 2009 in this format, beating out even Chris Johnson. We had passed the big group of runners and elected to Come Back with the Pack.

Round Two 

RapidDraft's Matt Schauf grabbed Jamaal Charles with the 20th overall pick, just ahead of DeAngelo Williams. Charles is going up and down in drafts this season with some owners fearing Thomas Jones stealing time and with others concerned about the little back's durability. Charles, was one of the best runners in football down the stretch last season, particularly in PPR format.

Our Pick: Reggie Wayne...with fear and trepidation at 14 overall. Wayne scored a lot better than the running backs available in this position. But our next pick was 35th overall and what RB would be left?

Round Three

Aaron Fox of FantasyFox, kind enough to join us from overseas, is a man of his convictions. And we sure hope his choice of Joe Flacco at #25 overall, the first pick of the third round doesn't send him straight to jail. Don't get us wrong, we kind of like Flacco (particularly in this format that punishes turnovers), but the consensus was that he could have been had two, three or more rounds later.

Our Pick: Cedric Benson. We followed this up a couple of picks later with Ronnie Brown. It was at this point that we started to declare that we hated our team. Benson is unlikely to be a part of the passing game and that limits his upside here. Still, he is a horse and should be a relaible source of points, if not an explosive one. We like the Cincinnati offense better this season as a whole.

Round Four

This round featured some of the younger, less established backs. Jahvid Best, Arian Foster and C.J. Spiller. Dan Dobish of the OpenSports squad grabbed Percy Harvin here which could be a bonanza or it could be a bust if his playing is restricted at all with his health concerns. The pick that we hated (because we wanted the guy) and loved (because it should be good value) was McCulluough's selection of Jermichael Finley. Although he is a little banged up after the most recent pre-season game, Finley has clearly been a featured target for Rodgers all over the field and in the Red Zone. The big guy can create space for himself even when he is unable to separate. But he is often able to separate because of his speed against linebackers and even some slower backfield players. Although some remakred that he could have been taken a round later, I can assure RotoExperts that he would not have been there.

Our pick: Ronnie Brown. Will Rickey Williams continue to steal scores and touches? Will Brandon Marshall mean less and less of the game is run through Brown? Yes and Yes. But Brown is still a team carrying back on those days when he is going and we were able to pull up some complementary backs to play matchup.

Round Five

The news here was the BigGuyFantasySports team had a last minute problem with their drafter, and the substitute drafter did a fine job, but wasn't used to the IDP system. CBSSports, where we held this draft is a fine interface and a great site. But their defensive rankings are mixed in with the offensive rankings and the players are ranked comically high in relation to their actual value. So the BigGuy gets Jared Allen in round five, the next defense player was taken in round eight. RotoExperts had another great pick in Tim Hightower. He'll be overlooked in many PPR leagues because he isn't starting, but he's going to get a lot of PT and we see a lot of catches in his future. The inimitable Mr. Puig of Team RotoWire grabbed Hakeem Nicks in another pick we love. Steve Smith is still probably the PPR money receiver in Eli Manning's distribution style attack, but Nicks (and to a lesser extent Manningham) have the chance to break out a bit this season and go vertical.

Our Pick: OpenSports grabbed our guy, Mike Sims-Walker just before us, so we went with Michael Crabtree who was a revelation down the stretch for the Niners. If Crabtree can bring some consistency to his world of talent, we may have a steal here.

Rounds Six to Eight

One of the interesting discussions this evening was about the Colts passing offense. Mike Blewitt of FantasyPros911 chose Pierre Garcon in the 6th. Will there be enough balls to go around for Garcon and Austin Collie and does Anthony Gonzalez get some looks as he has in the pre-season? Skilled player + great QB + great system = can't go far wrong. Blewitt followed that up in the 8th inning with the ageless wonder Derrick Mason. If he can keep the wheels on, that's a quality pick so late. Jeffrey Sock and John Zaktansky of ChinstrapNinja's finished a tight end run with Brent Celek. Obviously there is uncertainty with the Kevin Kolb era upon us in Philly, but we sure like the idea of grabbing the end of the tier a round or two later than the start of that tier in a positional run.

Our picks: Justin Forsett 6, Braylon Edwards 7, Jerome Harrison 8. The 'Hawks love Forsett and if his running game fails, well he's the possession passing game that would take its place. As long as he doesn't lose playing time (Leon Washington, Julius Jones) he should score nicely in PPR. We have our doubts about Jerome Harrison, but in four games as a starter, including the past three of last season his low game was 121 yards and he totalled 682 yards. A case of pre-season fumbles doesn't particularly worry us -- he had two all of last season. Edwards is a of an enigma. With Santonio Holmes suspended and Jericho Cotchery the forgotten man, Edwards has a chance to establish himself as the #1 man for Gang Green. 80 catches and 1200+ yards a couple of seasons ago for the talented, but erratic receiver also came in a poor passing game, with an iffy QB.

Rounds Nine through Twelve

KFFL's Cory Bonini had two of the good picks in these rounds, snagging Kellen Winslow in the 9th and then Big Ben Roethlisberg in the 10th. There's a possibility that Ben's suspension gets knocked back, which would make him a huge bargain here and Winslow has the potential to be a PPR nightmare, particularly since the Tampa wide-outs aren't a proven commodity. Mike Blewitt of FP911 grabbed Visanthe Shiancoe in the 11th - he's one of Brett Favre's favorite red zone targets. And Scott Gilory grabbed Devin Aromashodu. Most of the pre-season receiving buzz in Chicago has surrounded Johnny Knox, but Aromashodu has outplayed him on many occasions. If Jay Cutler can get it going, Devin will be one of the prime beneficiaries.

Our Picks: Heath Miller, Louis Murphy, Sidney Rice and Greg Olsen. We like Miller much better with the possibility of a few more games with Roethlisberger throwing to him. Rice may hit the IR, but a half season of the big guy would be nice. Murphy could be the primary target in Oakland and Jason Campbell brings more to the passing game than ol' what's his name. Olsen was inconsistent and there are questions as to what role the TE plays in Mike Martz' offense, but he's Cutler's roomie and pal and he looks to him in the Red Zone.

Rounds Thirteen and on 

FantasyFootballSherpa drew much praise for their Devery Henderson pick-up in the 13th. No New Orleans receiver can be entirely discounted. Lance Moore was a popular grab by BigGuyFantasySports. Moore looks healthier than he has in years and has always been a red zone kind of guy. Mike Blewit of FP911's selection of Legedu Naanee drew the high praise of groans from people who had hoped to slip him through. The SD receiver moves into pass happy land with the possibility of seeing serious action depending on Vincent Jackson's status and whether Malcom Floyd is able to step it up. Mario Manningham has been drawing rave reviews in Giants camp and Dan Dobish scooped him for the OpenSports squad.

All-in-all this was an excellent and challenging draft. There were several novel approaches to the task, and the RC team looks primed with potential, although we did not skimp on the risk side of the equation. 

 

DRAFT LOG

Round 1    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Johnson, Chris RB TEN
2 FantasyPros911 Peterson, Adrian RB MIN
3 ChinstrapNinjas Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Johnson, Andre WR HOU
5 RapidDraft Rice, Ray RB BAL
6 KFFL Gore, Frank RB SF
7 RotoExperts Turner, Michael RB ATL
8 RotoWire Moss, Randy WR NE
9 BigGuyFantasySports Manning, Peyton QB IND
10 OpenSports Jackson, Steven RB STL
11 RotoCommunity Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
12 JintMan Mendenhall, Rashard RB PIT
Round 2    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Johnson, Calvin WR DET
2 RotoCommunity Wayne, Reggie WR IND
3 OpenSports Brees, Drew QB NO
4 BigGuyFantasySports White, Roddy WR ATL
5 RotoWire Austin, Miles WR DAL
6 RotoExperts Brady, Tom QB NE
7 KFFL Mathews, Ryan RB SD
8 RapidDraft Charles, Jamaal RB KC
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR
10 ChinstrapNinjas Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI
11 FantasyPros911 Smith, Steve WR NYG
12 FantasyFox Jennings, Greg WR GB
Round 3    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Flacco, Joe QB BAL
2 FantasyPros911 Romo, Tony QB DAL
3 ChinstrapNinjas Marshall, Brandon WR MIA
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Grant, Ryan RB GB
5 RapidDraft Colston, Marques WR NO
6 KFFL Boldin, Anquan WR BAL
7 RotoExperts Welker, Wes WR NE
8 RotoWire Schaub, Matt QB HOU
9 BigGuyFantasySports Thomas, Pierre RB NO
10 OpenSports Bush, Reggie RB NO
11 RotoCommunity Benson, Cedric RB CIN
12 JintMan Jackson, DeSean WR PHI
Round 4    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan McCoy, LeSean RB PHI
2 RotoCommunity Brown, Ronnie RB MIA
3 OpenSports Harvin, Percy WR MIN
4 BigGuyFantasySports Foster, Arian RB HOU
5 RotoWire Best, Jahvid RB DET
6 RotoExperts Finley, Jermichael TE GB
7 KFFL Greene, Shonn RB NYJ
8 RapidDraft Ochocinco, Chad WR CIN
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Forte, Matt RB CHI
10 ChinstrapNinjas Addai, Joseph RB IND
11 FantasyPros911 Spiller, C.J. RB BUF
12 FantasyFox Moreno, Knowshon RB DEN
Round 5    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Gates, Antonio TE SD
2 FantasyPros911 Clark, Dallas TE IND
3 ChinstrapNinjas Rivers, Philip QB SD
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Bowe, Dwayne WR KC
5 RapidDraft Smith, Steve WR CAR
6 KFFL Ward, Hines WR PIT
7 RotoExperts Hightower, Tim RB ARI
8 RotoWire Nicks, Hakeem WR NYG
9 BigGuyFantasySports Allen, Jared DL MIN
10 OpenSports Sims-Walker, Mike WR JAC
11 RotoCommunity Crabtree, Michael WR SF
12 JintMan Houshmandzadeh, T.J. WR SEA
Round 6    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Gonzalez, Tony TE ATL
2 RotoCommunity Forsett, Justin RB SEA
3 OpenSports Floyd, Malcom WR SD
4 BigGuyFantasySports Witten, Jason TE DAL
5 RotoWire Wells, Beanie RB ARI
6 RotoExperts Wallace, Mike WR PIT
7 KFFL Owens, Terrell WR CIN
8 RapidDraft Davis, Vernon TE SF
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Driver, Donald WR GB
10 ChinstrapNinjas Jones, Felix RB DAL
11 FantasyPros911 Garcon, Pierre WR IND
12 FantasyFox Barber, Marion RB DAL
Round 7    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Breaston, Steve WR ARI
2 FantasyPros911 Stewart, Jonathan RB CAR
3 ChinstrapNinjas Celek, Brent TE PHI
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Bradshaw, Ahmad RB NYG
5 RapidDraft Palmer, Carson QB CIN
6 KFFL Kolb, Kevin QB PHI
7 RotoExperts Thomas, Mike WR JAC
8 RotoWire Miller, Zach TE OAK
9 BigGuyFantasySports Berrian, Bernard WR MIN
10 OpenSports Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG
11 RotoCommunity Edwards, Braylon WR NYJ
12 JintMan Manning, Eli QB NYG
Round 8    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Brown, Donald RB IND
2 RotoCommunity Harrison, Jerome RB CLE
3 OpenSports Favre, Brett QB MIN
4 BigGuyFantasySports Moss, Santana WR WAS
5 RotoWire Maclin, Jeremy WR PHI
6 RotoExperts Williams, Ricky RB MIA
7 KFFL Knox, Johnny WR CHI
8 RapidDraft Williams, Cadillac RB TB
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Jackson, Vincent WR SD
10 ChinstrapNinjas Woodson, Charles DB GB
11 FantasyPros911 Mason, Derrick WR BAL
12 FantasyFox Meachem, Robert WR NO
Round 9    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Washington, Leon RB SEA
2 FantasyPros911 Maroney, Laurence RB NE
3 ChinstrapNinjas Gaffney, Jabar WR DEN
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Ryan, Matt QB ATL
5 RapidDraft McFadden, Darren RB OAK
6 KFFL Winslow, Kellen TE TB
7 RotoExperts Collie, Austin WR IND
8 RotoWire Jackson, Fred RB BUF
9 BigGuyFantasySports Willis, Patrick LB SF
10 OpenSports Portis, Clinton RB WAS
11 RotoCommunity Williams, Mike WR TB
12 JintMan Hardesty, Montario RB CLE
Round 10    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Holmes, Santonio WR NYJ
2 RotoCommunity Bush, Michael RB OAK
3 OpenSports Sproles, Darren RB SD
4 BigGuyFantasySports Tomlinson, LaDainian RB NYJ
5 RotoWire Evans, Lee WR BUF
6 RotoExperts Ware, DeMarcus LB DAL
7 KFFL Roethlisberger, Ben QB PIT
8 RapidDraft Bryant, Dez WR DAL
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Massaquoi, Mohamed WR CLE
10 ChinstrapNinjas Peppers, Julius DL CHI
11 FantasyPros911 Cutler, Jay QB CHI
12 FantasyFox Daniels, Owen TE HOU
Round 11    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Cotchery, Jerricho WR NYJ
2 FantasyPros911 Shiancoe, Visanthe TE MIN
3 ChinstrapNinjas Beason, Jon LB CAR
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Cooley, Chris TE WAS
5 RapidDraft Tuck, Justin DL NYG
6 KFFL McCluster, Dexter WR KC
7 RotoExperts Edwards, Ray DL MIN
8 RotoWire Cole, Trent DL PHI
9 BigGuyFantasySports Williams, Mario DL HOU
10 OpenSports Hester, Devin WR CHI
11 RotoCommunity Miller, Heath TE PIT
12 JintMan Aromashodu, Devin WR CHI
Round 12    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan* Huggins, Kareem RB TB
2 RotoCommunity Rice, Sidney WR MIN
3 OpenSports Harrison, James LB PIT
4 BigGuyFantasySports Jones, Jacoby WR HOU
5 RotoWire Weddle, Eric DB SD
6 RotoExperts Nelson, Jordy WR GB
7 KFFL Jones, Thomas RB KC
8 RapidDraft McNabb, Donovan QB WAS
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Norwood, Jerious RB ATL
10 ChinstrapNinjas Taylor, Chester RB CHI
11 FantasyPros911 Woodley, LaMarr LB PIT
12 FantasyFox Bell, Yeremiah DB MIA
Round 13    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Williams, D.J. LB DEN
2 FantasyPros911 Robinson, Laurent WR STL
3 ChinstrapNinjas Harris, David LB NYJ
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Henderson, Devery WR NO
5 RapidDraft Slaton, Steve RB HOU
6 KFFL Laurinaitis, James LB STL
7 RotoExperts Pollard, Bernard DB HOU
8 RotoWire Smith, Alex QB SF
9 BigGuyFantasySports Winfield, Antoine DB MIN
10 OpenSports Smith, Will DL NO
11 RotoCommunity Olsen, Greg TE CHI
12 JintMan Stafford, Matthew QB DET
Round 14    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Fletcher, London LB WAS
2 RotoCommunity Murphy, Louis WR OAK
3 OpenSports Wilson, Adrian DB ARI
4 BigGuyFantasySports Cassel, Matt QB KC
5 RotoWire Posluszny, Paul LB BUF
6 RotoExperts Henne, Chad QB MIA
7 KFFL Atogwe, Oshiomogho DB STL
8 RapidDraft Britt, Kenny WR TEN
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Garrard, David QB JAC
10 ChinstrapNinjas Amendola, Danny WR STL
11 FantasyPros911 Dansby, Karlos LB MIA
12 FantasyFox Mathis, Robert DL IND
Round 15    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Sanchez, Mark QB NYJ
2 FantasyPros911 Freeney, Dwight DL IND
3 ChinstrapNinjas Royal, Eddie WR DEN
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Gonzalez, Anthony WR IND
5 RapidDraft Berry, Eric DB KC
6 KFFL Dixon, Anthony RB SF
7 RotoExperts Choice, Tashard RB DAL
8 RotoWire Buckhalter, Correll RB DEN
9 BigGuyFantasySports Scott, Bernard RB CIN
10 OpenSports Lewis, Ray LB BAL
11 RotoCommunity James, Bradie LB DAL
12 JintMan Kampman, Aaron DL JAC
Round 16    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Edelman, Julian WR NE
2 RotoCommunity Jennings, Rashad RB JAC
3 OpenSports Hartley, Garrett K NO
4 BigGuyFantasySports Moore, Lance WR NO
5 RotoWire Jackson, Tanard DB TB
6 RotoExperts Morrison, Kirk LB JAC
7 KFFL Avril, Cliff DL DET
8 RapidDraft Chambers, Chris WR KC
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Orakpo, Brian LB WAS
10 ChinstrapNinjas Taylor, Fred RB NE
11 FantasyPros911 McCourty, Devin DB NE
12 FantasyFox McGahee, Willis RB BAL
Round 17    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Cribbs, Josh WR CLE
2 FantasyPros911 Naanee, Legedu WR SD
3 ChinstrapNinjas Walter, Kevin WR HOU
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Smith, Justin DL SF
5 RapidDraft Burleson, Nate WR DET
6 KFFL Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA
7 RotoExperts Gostkowski, Stephen K NE
8 RotoWire Abraham, John DL ATL
9 BigGuyFantasySports Jones, James WR GB
10 OpenSports Ruud, Barrett LB TB
11 RotoCommunity Crosby, Mason K GB
12 JintMan Branch, Tyvon DB OAK
Round 18    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan McClain, Rolando LB OAK
2 RotoCommunity Umenyiora, Osi DL NYG
3 OpenSports Manningham, Mario WR NYG
4 BigGuyFantasySports Akers, David K PHI
5 RotoWire Flowers, Brandon DB KC
6 RotoExperts Tate, Golden WR SEA
7 KFFL Camarillo, Greg WR MIN
8 RapidDraft Vilma, Jonathan LB NO
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Suggs, Terrell LB BAL
10 ChinstrapNinjas Heyward-Bey, Darrius WR OAK
11 FantasyPros911 Dawkins, Brian DB DEN
12 FantasyFox Longwell, Ryan K MIN
Round 19    
Pick Team Player
1 FantasyFox Ryans, DeMeco LB HOU
2 FantasyPros911 Kaeding, Nate K SD
3 ChinstrapNinjas Bironas, Rob K TEN
4 FantasyFootballSherpa Polamalu, Troy DB PIT
5 RapidDraft Hawthorne, David LB SEA
6 KFFL Matthews, Clay LB GB
7 RotoExperts* Ringer, Javon RB TEN
8 RotoWire Gould, Robbie K CHI
9 BigGuyFantasySports Faulk, Kevin RB NE
10 OpenSports Morris, Sammy RB NE
11 RotoCommunity Tillman, Charles DB CHI
12 JintMan Feely, Jay K ARI
Round 20    
Pick Team Player
1 JintMan Ivory, Chris RB NO
2 RotoCommunity Odom, Antwan DL CIN
3 OpenSports Scheffler, Tony TE DET
4 BigGuyFantasySports Keller, Dustin TE NYJ
5 RotoWire* Cushing, Brian LB HOU
6 RotoExperts* Pettigrew, Brandon TE DET
7 KFFL Carpenter, Dan K MIA
8 RapidDraft Rackers, Neil K HOU
9 FantasyFootballSherpa Graham, Shayne K BAL
10 ChinstrapNinjas Orton, Kyle QB DEN
11 FantasyPros911 Greenway, Chad LB MIN
12 FantasyFox* Delmas, Louis DB DET

 

ALSO

Our 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Kit can help you win your league this year. And don't forget, we will promptly answer any questions you may have about your team, line-up, waiver wire, and trades in our FORUM. It just takes a minute to REGISTER a username and password for our site (allowing you to download draft kit files and post reviews, comments, blogs, and forum topics).

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