MLB - 2010 Fantasy Baseball Market Watch (Week 18)

Posted by: RichardSchortemeyerIII

RichardSchortemeyerIII

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For the first time since the All-Star Game became the "Home Field Advantage Game", the NL finally came out on top this season, and being the 'weaker' league, it needed it. Maybe the weakest NL division leader, San Diego, improved their team at the trade deadline the most with the offensive additions of OF Ryan Ludwick and IF Miguel Tejada, while other contenders like Atlanta and St. Louis added ancillary players. Yes, the Phillies did add All-Star pitcher Roy Oswalt, but with him being helpful only every fifth day, the bullpen still a sticky situation, and all the recent injuries to their All-Stars, it just might not be enough. The team I believe baseball fans are most rooting for is the Atlanta Braves, with this being legendary manager Bobby Cox's last dugout reign with the Braves. With no real clear cut favorite, it should be real interesting to see who represents the 'weaker' league in October.

The two favorites to represent the 'stronger' league in the World Series, reside in the AL East. With the trade deadline coming and going, the Yankees were the aggressors, picking up a reliable bat with 1B/DH Lance Berkman, decent outfield depth with OF Austin Kearns, and their projected eighth-inning guy RP Kerry Wood. There was some disappointment that the Rays basically stood pat. They did pick up reeling reliever Chad Qualls, but it wouldn't have happened if Grant Balfour didn't get hurt not being able to control his wrestling urge. However after taking two out of three vs. the Yankees last weekend and then taking two out of the first three from the Twins, Tampa Bay finds itself back in the driver's seat in the AL East. With this being All Stars Carl Crawford's and Carlos Pena's possible last seasons as Rays, and the Rays having something to prove after missing the postseason last season, there's reason to believe that Tampa can hold on to the driver's seat for the rest of the season. However, let's not count out those Rangers, who bolstered their already impressive staff and lineup by adding a premier pitcher in Cliff Lee and slugging IF Jorge Cantu respectively. And you can never sleep on the Twins, who always find their way into the Big Dance.

These last two months are the most exciting last two months of any sports season. Drama, excitement, heartbreak, triumph...it gets no better than this.

This week 'At the Market', this week's special is "Houston, we actually don't have a problem." I'll talk about a former Astros draft pick who's taking advantage of his first real opportunity and a young lefty who has something to prove after becoming a trade deadline victim.

Chris Johnson - 3B - Houston

Pedro Feliz had one of his best overall offensive outputs last season with the Phillies. His HR total was lowest since becoming a full-time starter, but he had the most 2B (30) and RBI (82) since '06, and his BA (.266) was his highest since '04. However, when the Phillies decided to go in a different direction and sign FA Placido Polanco, Feliz became available. It didn't even take a week after before Houston snatched him to fill their 3B vacancy. There were some decent offensive expectations in '10 with now having Feliz, All-Star 1B Lance Berkman, and a good outfield trio of Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn and Carlos Lee. However, it simply hasn't worked out that way, and Feliz has alot to do with that. With only 3 HR and 24 RBI while batting just .229 after the first three months, manager Brad Mills decided to go for a youth movement with his team going nowhere. And one of the beneficiaries is a 2006 fourth-round draft pick of the Astros out of Stetson who has spent most of the first four seasons in the Minors.

In his four-plus Minor League career, Johnson batted .277 with 49 HR and 259 RBI in 444 games. He really opened up some eyes for AAA Round Rock this season after being sent down there in mid-April. In 38 games, he batted .329 with 8 HR and 33 RBI. It looks like being sent down has paid off because he has looked more ready for the BIGS the second time around. Since being called back up in late June, he has 5 HR and 26 RBI while raising his BA from .227 to .350 in 34 games.

With the trade of the veteran Berkman and inserting rookie Brett Wallace at 1B and now rookie Angel Sanchez getting a majority of the playing time at SS, it looks like Johnson will continue to see a majority of the playing time at 3B the rest of the way. That's great for them, but it isn't the most intriguing for fantasy owners. Since Johnson has spent most of the time in the #7 lineup spot, he's surrounded by Wallace and fellow rookie C Jason Castro. However, in a division that features three poor pitching staffs (Cubs, Brewers, Pirates), fantasy owners in NL-only and deep mixed leagues could find some room for the Astros new occupant of the hot corner.

J.A. Happ - SP - Houston

After a few years of speculation and rumors, SP Roy Halladay got moved out of Canada, with the Phillies acquiring him a three-team trade. However, in that trade, the Phillies traded All-Star and '09 World Series hero Cliff Lee to Seattle. So thinking about it, trading ace for ace, the Phillies kept their chances high of returning to the World Series for the third consecutive year. However, with some key injuries to their offense and bullpen struggles, the Phillies have been looking up at the Braves in the NL East for awhile. One of the key injuries was Mr. Happ, who was sidelined in April with a left forearm injury. Returning a little over a week ago after an over three-month stint on the DL, he looked good in his return start vs. Colorado on July 25th (5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 K). However, with All-Star ace Roy Oswalt available during the trade deadline, the Phillies decided to acquire him a trade, which included giving up Happ, who quietly shined brightly in his rookie season in '09 (12-4, 3 CG, 2 SO, 2.93 ERA).

In his first start as an Astro, he showed why Houston will look back in a few years and smile for making this trade. Facing a strong Milwaukee lineup, he shut them out for six innings, giving up only 2 H while striking out six. Yes, he did struggle mightily against the Cardinals in his last start, but you shouldn't look much into that since they have had Happ's number so far in his career (0-2, 14 ER in three career starts).

There are two things going for Happ: 1) Looking at the schedule the rest of the way, besides a three-game series vs. STL, a four-game series @ PHI, and a three-game series vs. CIN, the Astros will play teams that either struggle offensively (ATL, LAD, NYM, FLA), or have under .500 records (WAS, MIL, CHC, PIT, ARI) and 2) Their overall bullpen has been bad, but in the last two innings, setup man Brandon Lyon (18 Holds, 1 HR allowed, 3.40 ERA) and closer Matt Lindstrom (22 SV in 26 chances, no ER allowed in July) have been decently reliable when they are handed the ball, especially recently.

With all that, a chip on his shoulder and something to prove, I would take a flyer on Happ as a 4th or 5th starter on your fantasy team's rotation.

Again, ask a question about your team in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below. 

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