NFL - 2010 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver (WR) Tiered Rankings

Posted by: DaveGawron

DaveGawron

Pretty soon, you will be able to see our 2010 player profiles for detailed analysis and projections, but here's the low-down on tight ends in 2010. OA is the current overall RotoCommunity ranking at the position. DG = Dave Gawron, PM = Pat Mayo, RS = Richard Schortenmeyer III, and AV = average.

Dave Gawron's text is in black, Pat Mayo's in blue.

!!! Tier rankings updated 9/4/10 !!!

STRATEGY

Wide receivers are the most readily available position on draft day. They're also easy waiver wire match-up pick-ups in-season. It's typically best to walk away from the draft with two top-notch, consistent ones and rotate others into the fantasy WR3 and FLEX positions. It's good to have a couple solid, "boring" ones on your bench along with some upside options.

 

TIER 1 (elite)

OA player DG PM RS AV wcoff nffc espn $
1 Andre Johnson HOU (Bye: 7) 1 1 1 1.00 310 260 210 47
2 Randy Moss NE (Bye: 5) 2 2 3 2.33 278 238 198 45
3 Calvin Johnson DET (Bye: 7) 5 4 5 4.67 275 232.5 190 43
4 Roddy White ATL (Bye: 8) 6 5 6 5.67 265 222.5 180 40
5 Larry Fitzgerald ARI (Bye: 6) 3 3 2 2.67 255 210 165 39
6 Reggie Wayne IND (Bye: 7) 4 10 7 7.00 258 210.5 163 36

You know what you're getting with these receivers, but CJ could really break out this season.

I like Roddy White as the 5th WR off the board, but he's not in the same class as the top four... The top three of Moss, Johnson and Fitzgerald are as safe as it gets, barring injury, at the position. All three could be first round picks in standard formats, and I'd be willing to go as high as 5 on Andre in PPR leagues... The biggest risk of the bunch is definitely Calvin Johnson. Blessed with unlimited potential, Megatron seems primed to be elite. Of course, the Lions offense could easily hold him back -- like last year -- but he's too good to be held down forever. I was drinking the Kool-Aid with Johnson last year, so I may be biased, but he's a guy last available in the 2nd round, with top-5 upside.

I'm down on Reggie Wayne. He's not someone I'd pass on at the right price, but the chances of his stats matching up with his draft position are very slim. After a really hot start to 2009, Wayne faded down the stretch for fantasy owners due to a combination of injury, defensive scheming and offensive options. The injury problems shouldn't be there to start the year, but the Colts' other options at receiver -- Collie, Garcon, Clark and Gonzalez -- leaves Manning with so many options that it could be easy for Wayne to get lost in the shuffle from week to week.

 

TIER 2 (star)

7 Miles Austin DAL (Bye: 4) 11 8 12 10.33 263 220.5 178 35
8 Brandon Marshall MIA (Bye: 5) 7 7 4 6.00 251.5 204 156.5 34
9 DeSean Jackson PHI (Bye: 8) 9 11 10 10.00 254 219 184 33
10 Marques Colston NO (Bye: 10) 10 16 11 12.33 238 200.5 163 30
11 Greg Jennings GB (Bye: 10) 12 14 9 11.67 230 190 150 29
12 Steve Smith CAR (Bye: 6) 16 15 17 16.00 226 188.5 151 28
13 Wes Welker NE (Bye: 5) 30 20 38 29.33 228 180.5 133 27

Again, you pretty much know what you're getting here. Jennings should rebound in 2010. All are fine choices.

Nothing wrong with Miles Austin, but there's always a chance that he regresses this season after coming out of nowhere in 2009. He's definitely the Cowboys best receiver, but with the plethora of options that Romo has at his disposal, Austin could become a bystander very quickly. It's not the most likely of scenarios, but something to keep in your mind... I would rather Marshall than White in PPR leagues, but I'll have to temper my expectations with Marshall playing for a new team. Marshall ranks near the of all NFL players in pure talent, and is clearly the best aerial option, by leaps and bounds, on the Dolphins. Despite his enormous talent on the outside, defenses will still have to key on stopping Miami's potent running attack, leaving Marshall free to reek havoc on opposing secondaries.  

DeSean Jackson is a boom or bust kind of player, but his boom can single handily win you a week. If the settings include special teams points for individual players, you may want to upgrade Jackson a bit higher. He's going at a pretty fair price and shouldn't disappoint... I tend to stay away from Colston every year. His talent is undeniable, but, like Wayne, I don't trust his consistency... Jennings is due for a rebound season. Many fantasy "experts" noticed this too, and it's made him slightly overvalued -- but only slightly. If you see him start to drop, make him yours... Even coming off a broken arm, Steve Smith is going too late. I've actually seen him go behind NYG's Steve Smith -- which is nuts. Always a deep threat, Smith showed decent chemistry with Matt Moore towards the end of 2009 and should keep that rolling into 2010.

Based on his movements in training camp, Welker looks primed by week three or four. Even missing the first few weeks shouldn't hinder his value all too much if you use a this strategy. Reach a bit on Welker, then make sure you take Julian Edelman a few rounds later and you can basically use them as one player. Edelman will be a suitable replacement while Welker works through his injury and won't be a significant drop off in production -- more so in PPR leagues. The two of them should combine to be a high end number two and a number one in PPR formats.

 

TIER 3 (solid)

14 Anquan Boldin BAL (Bye: 8) 13 9 14 12.00 215 172.5 130 26
15 Chad Ochocinco CIN (Bye: 6) 15 19 15 16.33 213 170.5 128 25
16 Hakeem Nicks NYG (Bye: 8) 21 22 27 23.33 210 175 140 24
17 Hines Ward PIT (Bye: 5) 19 26 21 22.00 210 170 130 23
18 Dwayne Bowe KC (Bye: 4) 26 21 16 21.00 210 170 130 22
19 Mike Sims-Walker JAC (Bye: 9) 22 23 23 22.67 208 173 138 21
20 Steve Smith NYG (Bye: 8) 20 36 20 25.33 210 167.5 125 20
21 Michael Crabtree SF (Bye: 9) 18 12 19 16.33 200 162.5 125 19
22 Donald Driver GB (Bye: 10) 24 24 22 23.33 200 165 130 18
23 Santana Moss WAS (Bye: 9) 27 43 26 32.00 205 167.5 130 18
24 Derrick Mason BAL (Bye: 8) 25 33 28 28.67 195 160 125 17
25 Jeremy Maclin PHI (Bye: 8) 23 18 25 22.00 190 157.5 125 16

Ward is a sneaky vet here, while Nicks and Maclin are exciting youngsters. Driver's knees could be fixed or they could go at any moment. Moss may or may not take to McNabb as a featured receiver. Also, Mason will share targets with Boldin, so beware there.

With a capable QB and a running game that will draw the focus of opposing defenses, Boldin's due to turn in a huge year in Baltimore. He's the guy I like the most from this tier, and he should come at a reasonable price... Ochocinco is a personal favorite of mine, but my distrust of Carson Palmer will have me looking in other directions on draft day... As for the other Steve Smith, or Squiggy, as I not-so-affectionately call him, I don't like him at all in any non-PPR league. While he'll pile up the catches, ol' Squigs is not really on the Giants' radar in the Red zone and doesn't have the speed to turn nothing in six points. Put him on the avoid list... Ward is pretty blase. He's old and has limited upside. I'd steer clear of Ward unless my team was built on a lot of risk early. He probably won't post multiple touchdown weeks, but is dependable on a weekly basis.

Many are flipping a coin between Bowe and Sims-Walker, but it's not that close. At least from my point of view. Bowe is due for a comeback year. With an extra year of work with Matt Cassel under his belt, he's currently undervalued. MSW, on the other hand, is notoriously streaky and not overly dependable. He's definitely the best receiver on the Jags, but that's really not saying much. He's a decent option as a WR3... Nicks is pretty banged up (knee and toe injuries), but I still like his upside the best form the Giants' receiving corps. He's a decent gamble at the price he's coming at... You'll notice that I have Crabtree ranked much higher than either of my colleagues. I may be off in my own world on this one, but I look at how big an impact he made despite missing the first half last season and I can't help but think of the upside. The 49ers possess an excellent running attack with Frank Gore, which will pull a safety up into the box. Vernon Davis will draw the coverage between the hash marks and Crabtree will have free reign on the outside. Crabtree is the type of gamble that leads to championships.

Do yourself a solid and don't draft Santana Moss. He's beyond terrible... The always overlooked Derrick Mason is a quality WR3 and PPR stalwart. Now with Boldin in town, he'll draw easier coverage and could definitely replicate his very sneaky Top-30 season form 2009. Don't be an ageist and hold that against him. He's a possession receiver who will pile up the catches. Don't forget his name on draft day... I'm the highest on Maclin in the bunch, which is no surprise. I'm a huge fan of the Eagles' passing attack. He has number one talent, but will see number two coverage. Exploit that match up.

 

TIER 4 (not as solid)

26 Percy Harvin MIN (Bye: 4) 17 17 18 17.33 179 149 119 14
27 Terrell Owens CIN (Bye: 6) 45 55 60 53.33 175 147.5 120 14
28 Dez Bryant DAL (Bye: 4) 31 25 50 35.33 170 142.5 115 13
29 Johnny Knox CHI (Bye: 8) 44 62 61 55.67 170 140 110 13
30 Devin Aromashodu CHI (Bye: 8) 49 32 37 39.33 175 145 115 13
31 Steve Breaston ARI (Bye: 6) 35 45 33 37.67 178 145.5 113 12
32 Nate Burleson DET (Bye: 7) 40 39 47 42.00 173 138 103 12
33 Laurent Robinson STL (Bye: 9) 68 60 68 65.33 178 145.5 113 11
34 Mike Wallace PIT (Bye: 5) 32 28 32 30.67 170 142.5 115 11
35 Malcom Floyd SD (Bye: 10) 66 79 55 66.67 163 135.5 108 10
36 Devin Hester CHI (Bye: 8) 33 51 44 42.67 160 132.5 105 10
37 Lee Evans BUF (Bye: 6) 36 37 34 35.67 165 137.5 110 10
38 Santonio Holmes NYJ (Bye: 7) 34 42 29 35.00 160 132.5 105 9
39 Eddie Royal DEN (Bye: 9) 63 61 59 61.00 160 130 100 9
40 Robert Meachem NO (Bye: 10) 29 31 31 30.33 166 141 116 9
41 Mike Williams SEA (Bye: 5)         163 133 103 9
42 Mike Williams TB (Bye: 4) 57 91 73 73.67 163 133 103 8
43 Pierre Garcon IND (Bye: 7) 38 43 30 37.00 160 135 110 8

This tier is an absolute box of chocolates. You don't know what you're going to get. Owens is a lottery ticket here. Driver's knees could be fixed or they could go at any moment. Knox, Aromashodu, and Hester could all move up or down. Burleson and Holmes on their new teams and the enigmatic Mike Williams (SEA) are unknown quantities as well. Royal could bounce back, but do yourself a favor and walk away with two receivers from tiers one-to-three.

Harvin is suffering from the same migraines that held him out of a few weeks last season. They tend to come out of nowhere which could lead to game day scratches when looking healthy. Not the sort of risk I want to take in my 2nd WR... Like the rest of the Bengals' receivers, Owens scares me a bit. I'll content with letting someone else find out if he has anything left in the tank... God bless the Dez Bryant injury. I love Dez Bryant and I certainly wasn't alone in my affection, but this foot injury has dropped his stock quite a bit. Now at a better value, you shouldn't have to duke it out with your league mates for Bryant's services. He has huge upside and should be available after the 8th round. Great value... Need some sleepers out of this group? Good, cause I've got a few. Devin Aromashodu has been a popular sleeper in the fantasy community since his four game tear to end the season last year. With Mike Martz installing a new, high octane offense, Aromashodu has the chance to really be the breakout star. He's my favorite of the Bears' receivers.

Who should you avoid? While many see the exodus of Anquan Boldin as a green light to draft Steve Breaston, I'm not buying it. Kurt Warner is gone, which had been inflating Breaston's stats, and I actually like 2009 late season breakout Early Doucet better... With Calvin Johnson playing on the opposite side of the field and the two big bodied tight ends clogging up the middle, Nate Burleson has the chance to go overlooked by defenses. He has extraordinary speed and Stafford's powerful arm could certainly lead to some long TDs... Someone on St. Louis will be forced to catch passes, why can't it be Laurent Robinson? He was surprisingly effective in spurts last season before a season ending injury put him out of commission... Many are on board with 60 Minutes, Mike Wallace now that Santonio Holmes has been run out of town, but I'm still on the fence. Wallace certainly has the potential and proper situation to excel, but I fear that the Steelers' passing game won't be up to snuff until Big Ben returns. He may make a better trade target after he disappoints in the first few weeks.

Devin Hester is a great talent, but he's really not the receiver threat many make him out to be. I'm already higher on Aromashodu and I'm ready to put Johnny "Hard" Knox ahead of him too. You won't find consistency in Knox, but he has much better big game potential than Hester. His outlandish speed give him a chance to score deep touchdowns at any point in the game... The closer we get to the season, the more I'm starting to like Eddie Royal for a comeback season... I would rather Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie over Reggie Wayne this season. I don't disagree that Wayne will post better numbers, but Collie and Garcon's final totals won't be too far behind and they come at a far greater value. 

 

TIER 5 (iffy)

44 Chris Chambers KC (Bye: 4) 37 30 36 34.33 155 130 105 8
45 Jerricho Cotchery NYJ (Bye: 7) 54 52 45 50.33 153 125.5 98 7
46 Braylon Edwards NYJ (Bye: 7) 39 40 35 38.00 148 123 98 7
47 Louis Murphy OAK (Bye: 10) 77 90 78 81.67 146 121 96 6
48 Bernard Berrian MIN (Bye: 4) 55 48 53 52.00 143 115.5 88 6
49 Josh Cribbs CLE (Bye: 8)         141 121 101 6
50 Dexter McCluster KC (Bye: 4) 48 56 64 56.00 135 112.5 90 5
51 Mike Thomas JAC (Bye: 9) 76 90 80 82.00 133 113 93 5
51 Jabar Gaffney DEN (Bye: 9) 79 80 72 77.00 135 112.5 90 5
53 T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA (Bye: 5) 28 34 24 28.67 133 105.5 78 4
54 Vincent Jackson SD (Bye: 10) 14 13 13 13.33 130 110 90 4
55 Devery Henderson NO (Bye: 10) 50 41 54 48.33 133 110.5 88 4
56 Mohamed Massaquoi CLE (Bye: 8) 64 68 66 66.00 128 105.5 83 3
57 Kenny Britt TEN (Bye: 9) 53 29 42 41.33 128 108 88 3
58 Arrelious Benn TB (Bye: 4) 43 38 52 44.33 128 100.5 73 3
59 Mario Manningham NYG (Bye: 8) 47 53 41 47.00 128 105.5 83 3
60 Austin Collie IND (Bye: 7) 59 27 48 44.67 128 103 78 2
61 Jacoby Jones HOU (Bye: 7) 51 58 70 59.67 125 102.5 80 2

Berrian could rebound from his 2009 injury. Massaquoi could get some garbage time production. Britt could go up or down. Jacoby Jones could move up if he gets past Walter.

Getting down deep now, lets try to make this as painless as possible. Cotchery will be better while Holmes is out of the line up, but has a very limited upside... Stay away from Braylon Edwards. Edwards, the Rainman -- King of the Drops -- will endlessly frustrate owners with his spotty play. Give me teammate Santonio Holmes, even after a four game suspension, over Edwards... In comparison to the other rankers, I'm particularly high on Henderson, Britt, and Collie. I like all three of their situation and could all be serviceable as upside WR3s. Britt definitely has the highest upside, but is also not as refined as the others.

With Harvin still suffering form his migraine issue, a now healthy Bernard Berrian could be a great value late in drafts... Dexter McCluster may not be a great standard draft pick, but he'll definitely be on every one of my PPR teams. He could crack 60 catches... One of the Giants' receivers is going to be huge, but I don't think it's Mario Manningham. He's just too streaky... I love me some Jacoby Jones. Look for Jones to hop ahead of Kevin Walter on the Texans' depth chart. His overall talents, in that powerful offense, makes him a great breakout candidate...

 

TIER 6 (long shots)

62 Sidney Rice MIN (Bye: 4) 8 6 8 7.33 124 104 84 1
63 Antonio Bryant CIN (Bye: 6) 41 44 39 41.33 123 103 83 1
64 Nate Washington TEN (Bye: 9) 67 57 62 62.00 118 95.5 73 1
65 Joey Galloway WAS (Bye: 9)         118 98 78 1
66 Brian Hartline MIA (Bye: 5) 71 78 76 75.00 118 95.5 73 1
67 Davone Bess MIA (Bye: 5) 70 67 46 61.00 116 88.5 61 1
68 Kevin Walter HOU (Bye: 7) 69 63 40 57.33 118 95.5 73 1
69 Greg Camarillo MIN (Bye: 4)         112 87 62 1
70 Brian Robiskie CLE (Bye: 8) 58 90 79 75.67 111 91 71 1
71 James Jones GB (Bye: 10) 78 74 74 75.33 111 91 71 1
72 Anthony Gonzalez IND (Bye: 7) 60 77 65 67.33 113 93 73 1
73 Golden Tate SEA (Bye: 5) 42 35 67 48.00 108 90.5 73 1
74 Early Doucet ARI (Bye: 6) 56 49 56 53.67 108 88 68 1
75 Josh Morgan SF (Bye: 9) 74 82 63 73.00 108 88 68 1
76 Devin Thomas WAS (Bye: 9) 61 65 57 61.00 108 88 68 0
77 Roy E. Williams DAL (Bye: 4) 62 66 51 59.67 108 90.5 73 0
78 Legedu Naanee (Bye: 10)         98 78 58 0
79 Julian Edelman NE (Bye: 5) 65 50 58 57.67 96 76 56 0
80 Lance Moore NO (Bye: 10) 72 90 75 79.00 93 75.5 58 0
81 Chaz Schilens OAK (Bye: 10) 52 54 69 58.33 93 78 63 0
82 Jason Avant PHI (Bye: 8)         93 75.5 58 0
83 Jordy Nelson GB (Bye: 10)         92 74.5 57 0
84 Steve Johnson BUF (Bye: 6)         92 72 52 0
85 Michael Jenkins ATL (Bye: 8)         87 69.5 52 0
86 Sammie Stroughter TB (Bye: 4)         86 66 46 0
87 Harry Douglas ATL (Bye: 8)         87 67 47 0
88 Patrick Crayton SD (Bye: 10)         82 67 52 0

There's not much to like here. Bess could help in deep PPR leagues. Ditto with Robiskie.

Bess is another PPR-only option, but I'd rather have Hartline based on upside... I was full of glee when Seattle announced they had selected Notre Dame standout Golden Tate. Tate's unique skill set out of the slot position, mixed with the Seahawks' overall lack of talent is a perfect receipt for a breakout rookie season. There's no reason he can't replicate Percy Harvin's season totals from last year. But more on that here... As discussed earlier, make sure to handcuff Edelman to Welker... Schilens was interesting last year but couldn't get anything going with Russell. Maybe the chance to Campbell will do him some good... Jordy Nelson should be a consistent catch machine and could evolve into a PPR machine for very little cost...

Despite not making the cut in the top 80 average, I had Ted Ginn relatively high among the back end WR. Now in San Francisco, Ginn will have the luxury to play third fiddle to Vernon Davis and Crabtree. He's from the same ilk as Burleson and Knox and will go undrafted in most leagues. He should have 3 or 4 big games in him this season.

 

ALSO

Our 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Kit can help you win your league this year, so check out the whole kit. And don't forget, we will promptly answer any questions you may have about your team, line-up, waiver wire, and trades in our FORUM. It just takes a minute to REGISTER a username and password for our site (allowing you to download draft kit files and post reviews, comments, blogs, and forum topics).

Trackback(0)
Comments (0)Add Comment

Write comment
You must be logged in to post a comment. Please register if you do not have an account yet.

busy