NFL - 2010 Fantasy Football Quarterback (QB) Tiered Rankings

Posted by: DaveGawron

DaveGawron

Pretty soon, you will be able to see our 2010 player profiles for detailed analysis and projections, but here's the low-down on tight ends in 2010. OA is the current overall RotoCommunity ranking at the position. DG = Dave Gawron, PM = Pat Mayo, RS = Richard Schortenmeyer III, and AV = average.

Dave Gawron's text is in black, Pat Mayo's in blue.

!!! Tier rankings updated 9/4/10 !!!

STRATEGY

On one hand, it's a deep position, so you can wait. On the other hand, if everybody in your league agrees with that statement, we couldn't argue with you zigging where they zag if a player like Peyton Manning falls to the fourth round.

There's really two effctive strategies you can apply when choosing quarterbacks:

The Anchor 

Selecting a pivot from the two top tiers, putting them in for week one, and only making a change because of an injury or bye week. You're giving yourself a player that should finish in the top 10 in total points and relieves the headache that can come with streaming quarterbacks and playing match ups. The Anchor brings the sort of stability that all fantasy owners crave. 

That all sounds good and all, so what's the catch? The problem in drafting one of these guys is related directly to the price tag involved in taking them. To obtain the services of anyone form these two tiers, you'll need to use a top 40 (maybe 35) pick, which is around the time that the last bastion of elite players at WR and RB are going. You may find yourself thin at either position if you take a quarterback in the first few rounds.

The Pat Mayo Deluxe

I have no problem going early on a quarterback, but I want the best of the best (Rodgers) if I do. More than likely, I'll sit out of the QB melee, fill up at WR and RB, then roll the dice on two upside guys later in the draft. I'll warn you now: Deploying this method can lead cause serious swings in your blood pressure. Without the luxury of an elite QB, you'll have to find the guy that is on the cusp of the next level (think 2009 Matt Schaub) and hope (praying doesn't hurt either) this is the right year. If performed correctly, THE PMD will afford you greater depth at all other positions without much drop off at the pivot. In the base case scenario, both your upside guys come through and become valuable trade chips to make up for some under performing picks -- it happens to everyone. Although if one of the guys comes through, that's really all you're hoping for.

TIER 1 (elite)

OA player DG PM RS AV wcoff nffc espn $
1 Aaron Rodgers GB (Bye: 10) 2 1 4 2.33 310 409 300 38
2 Drew Brees NO (Bye: 10) 1 2 1 1.33 307 418 294 36

These two are fantasy monsters, but somebody will likely take them earlier than they should.

There should only be one guy in this tier and that's Aaron Rodgers. Brees is a fine fantasy option, but he's closer to the tier 2 guys than to Rodgers. The Packers' QB will continue to sling the ball around the field and his valuable rushing yards is what separates him from the rest of the pack. If you're going to spend the high pick to nab a QB, Rodgers is your guy.

TIER 2 (star)

3 Tom Brady NE (Bye: 5) 4 5 5 4.67 301 406 291 34
4 Tony Romo DAL (Bye: 4) 7 6 7 6.67 303 409 290 32

Not quite as good as Brees or Rodgers, but as close as you can get if you wait a bit longer. Brady is another yer removed from surgery, with Moss on a contract year. Romo gets yet another weapon in Dez Bryant.

If you are a true gambler, it wouldn't be the craziest thing to see Brady have a huge year... Romo may very well be the draft's best value. He's being selected behind the tier two guys by a substantial margin, but there's very little difference between them.  Romo actually finished ahead of Brady last year and, with the addition of future superstar Dez Bryant, could find himself out performing the entire bunch. His current ADP is 51, two whole rounds after Brady and Manning. If you're looking for an elite QB, but don't want to shell out the big dollars for the top end guys, Romo is your man

TIER 3 (solid)

5 Peyton Manning IND (Bye: 7) 3 3 2 2.67 287 392 274 30
6 Philip Rivers SD (Bye: 10) 6 8 3 5.67 290 390 280 28
7 Matt Schaub HOU (Bye: 7) 5 4 6 5.00 290 391 277 26
8 Jay Cutler CHI (Bye: 8) 10 10 9 9.67 298 402 278 22

Rivers could be hurt by the Vincent Jackson situation. Cutler could thrive in the Martz offense.

I'm a bit down on Rivers this season. The entire offense has been revamped, and while I don't think it will necessarily hurt the Chargers in the standings, it could have a negative impact on Rivers stats. With Tomlinson now in NYC and Vincent Jackson suspended for three games, and threatening to hold out, two of Rivers' three best options have disappeared. Call me crazy, but I have tough time believing that Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Nene will cause much of a problem in the outside.

The familiarity that comes with year two, combined with Mike Martz' spread offense could be a perfect storm for the Vanderbilt product, Cutler. The talent has never been questioned, but consistency has plagued Cutler for his entire career. This could be the year that those issues are put to rest and it won't cost you much to find out. He has top-5 potential.

TIER 4 (not as solid)

9 Brett Favre MIN (Bye: 4) 8 7 8 7.67 258 353 248 12
10 Joe Flacco BAL (Bye: 8) 9 9 13 10.33 252 338 239 10
11 Kevin Kolb PHI (Bye: 8) 11 11 16 12.67 245 334 232 9
12 Matt Ryan ATL (Bye: 8) 12 12 14 12.67 235 317 222 7
13 Eli Manning NYG (Bye: 8) 13 18 10 13.67 222 302 212 6
14 Donovan McNabb WAS (Bye: 9) 14 17 11 14.00 219 291 211 5
15 Vince Young TEN (Bye: 9) 24 14 20 19.33 223 283 213 4

You have to worry about Favre's advanced age, but he still put up the numbers last year, anyway. Flacco could thrive with Boldin, Housh, and Stallworth in tow, plus two fine rookie tight ends. Kolb should thrive in a full-time starter role.

I like Favre a lot, but it's crazy to think he can build on a career year at such an elevated age. If he starts slipping down your draft board, go ahead and pull the trigger, but don't overpay on name value alone... Otherwise, if you're planning on using the PMD, these are the guys you should be targeting. Flacco has teased before but looks ready to break out in a big way. He is my easily my favorite of the group, and you can read about that here. To paraphrase, he's now in his third year, finally has an impact receiver, has a strong running game to alleviate pressure, and can finally put some good use to his rocket laser arm.

I would be weary of drafting Kolb as my starter, but he's definitely an upside back up. 

TIER 5 (iffy)

16 David Garrard JAC (Bye: 9) 27 24 24 25.00 221 284 208 3
17 Chad Henne MIA (Bye: 5) 20 15 19 18.00 214 289 199 3
18 Jason Campbell OAK (Bye: 10) 23 16 29 22.67 216 284 201 3
19 Carson Palmer CIN (Bye: 6) 16 25 12 17.67 210 280 200 2
20 Kyle Orton DEN (Bye: 9) 29 31 26 28.67 198 266 185 2
21 Matt Cassel KC (Bye: 4) 15 19 17 17.00 187 249 172 2
22 Mark Sanchez NYJ (Bye: 7) 22 21 25 22.67 191 255 176 1
23 Matthew Stafford DET (Bye: 7) 19 23 21 21.00 177 236 162 1
24 Alex Smith SF (Bye: 9) 18 13 18 16.33 177 243 164 1
25 Matt Moore CAR (Bye: 6) 28 28 27 27.67 168 230 158 1
26 Derek Anderson ARI (Bye: 6) 21 26 22 23.00 172 236 157 1

For one reason or another, these quarterbacks cannot be counted upon on a weekly basis. They're better being saved (rotated in) when matched up against a poor pass defense. If anything, Palmer could do better another year removed from injury, Cassel in his second year in the KC system, Henne and Stafford in their second years in the league, and Campbell on his new team.

This is a pretty tough group to peg. You know what you're getting with Manning and McNabb. Consistency and limited upside. Both should make serviceable back ups. If you want upside, Ryan is the popular name that stands out. It's hard to disagree with, but his value may be inflated because of the hype. For cheaper upside guys, you'll want to roll the dice on Alex Smith, Chad Henne or Vince Young. All three guys are in good situations, that could help them find their way into the top-10 this season.

Don't draft Carson Palmer. The Bengals have been transformed into a run first, ball control, defense heavy team. Combine that with Palmer's deteriorating skills and you have a bust. Stafford is still a year away form being useful in standard formats. The big unknown is Jason Campbell. If you have an elite QB, take a chance on the Raiders' pivot. He plays in a weak division and certainly has weapons around him. If he can manage to harness that talent, watch out.

TIER 6 (only in 2-QB leagues)

27 Ben Roethlisberger PIT (Bye: 5) 17 20 15 17.33 162 218 149 1
28 Josh Freeman TB (Bye: 4) 25 30 30 28.33 164 214 149 1
29 Jake Delhomme CLE (Bye: 8) 30 27 28 28.33 142 191 127 1
30 Matt Hasselbeck SEA (Bye: 5) 26 22 23 23.67 137 185 124 1
31 Sam Bradford STL (Bye: 9) 31 38 32 33.67 119 163 104 1
32 Trent Edwards BUF (Bye: 6) 32 29 31 30.67 124 166 112 1
33 Charlie Whitehurst SEA (Bye: 5) 35 37 40 37.33 67 87 64 0
34 Michael Vick PHI (Bye: 8) 39 35 34 36.00 56 67 53 0
35 Seneca Wallace CLE (Bye: 8) 37 39 38 38.00 47 61 44 0
36 Dennis Dixon PIT (Bye: 5) 33 33 33 33.00 44 61 39 0
37 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF (Bye: 6) 36 36 36 36.00 47 59 42 0
38 Tarvaris Jackson MIN (Bye: 4) 40 40 37 39.00 39 50 36 0
39 Matt Leinart FA 38 34 35 35.67 31 42 28 0
40 A.J. Feeley STL (Bye: 9) 34 32 39 35.00 30.5 41.5 26.5 0

Big Ben could be a sleeper, but he faces a tough stretch of pass defenses down the stretch. Bradford is a good dynasty league pick.

Because of injuries and bye weeks, there's a good chance that you'll be forced into using at least one of the guys from this tier at some point this season. If you have the bench room, stash Roethlisberger away. He'll be fine once he returns, and you can get him at the end of drafts. Good value there... Vick is an interesting sleeper should something happen to Kolb. He looked good in limited action towards the end of last season. He's not draft worthy, but definitely scoop him up should he become the starter.

ALSO

Our 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Kit can help you win your league this year, so check out the whole kit. And don't forget, we will promptly answer any questions you may have about your team, line-up, waiver wire, and trades in our FORUM. It just takes a minute to REGISTER a username and password for our site (allowing you to download draft kit files and post reviews, comments, blogs, and forum topics).

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