NFL - 2010 Fantasy Football Rookies

Posted by: ThePME

Tagged in: Fantasy Football

ThePME

Click here to read our thoughts on other rookies outside the Top Eight.

While it may seem a tad premature to assign fantasy value to players we’ve yet to see in the NFL, I say screw it, I’m doing it anyways. Every year a few rookies make an immediate impact on the fantasy landscape and whoever is savvy enough to draft them generally reaps the rewards through a fantasy championship. Lets breakdown which freshmen can have you reaping dividends in 2010.

#1. Ryan Mathews RB SD

There are very few analysts out there willing to proclaim Ryan Mathews as the best running back in this draft class -- and I’m right on board with them. But, for fantasy purposes, it’s more about opportunity than talent and Mathews finds himself in a better situation than any other rookie. Norv Turner has proclaimed Mathews ready to handle the load in San Diego as the feature back. I’d like to believe Turner, but this is the same guy who claims to be a 'championship' coach. Let’s just hope Mathews doesn’t inherit Turner's loser personality. You’ll be plenty upset when Mathews leads you to the fantasy playoffs only to disappear, costing you a championship. But let’s deal with that when the time comes. In the meantime, Mathews looks like he could receive 250+ carries while being spelled by Darren Sproles periodically. Some may be weary of Sproles poaching carries, but expect the Little Lighting Bolt to resume the same role he’s played for the past few years -- passing/3rd down back, while making an impact on special teams. That leaves the majority of carries (including the extra-valuable goal line carries) in the hands of Mathews. It’s difficult to project touchdowns, but anticipating a double digit total isn’t a pipe dream. The Chargers will remain a pass first team under Philip Rivers, but they have always shown a penchant to run once they settle inside the 10-yard line. 

#2. Dez Bryant WR DAL

I love Dez Bryant, but he's coming into the murkiest situation of all the top rookies this season. In Dallas, Bryant is basically a big fish in a big pond. He has the most talent of any receiver on the team, including Miles Austin, but will probably start the year as a tertiary option because of the Cowboys’ immense depth at skill positions. Bryant starts the year behind the aforementioned Austin and tight end Jason Witten in terms of looks from Tony Romo and he’ll compete with the rotting corpse of Roy Williams for the second receiver position. Fortunately, this is a battle he should win. Once Bryant gets a chance to make some plays, the Cowboys will witness his crazy play making abilities and make Bryant one of the focal points of this offense. The Cowboys spent too high a pick on Bryant to sit him on the bench. Receiver is a position where rookies can come in an make an immediate impact and Bryant is the best of the best of the 2010 crop. His size will give opposing DBs nightmares and he should get pretty favorable coverage with Austin taking on the oppositions’ best defender. I’m rolling the dice on Bryant this season, if you want to win, you should too.

#3. Jahvid Best RB DET

Best steps into a pretty enviable position in Detroit. And yes, I realize that reads like an oxymoron. With incumbent running back Kevin Smithexpected to miss at least six weeks recovering from knee surgery, Best will be thrust into the starting gig harder than Billy Bob at a pinball machine. Best’s value will actually be helped by a surprisingly scary looking Lions offense. With defenses needing to key on Calvin Johnson and the newly acquired Nate Burleson, Best should have the required space he needs to make an impact. Now, don’t expect the Lions to lead the league in total yards, but year two of the Matt Stafford experience should be an improvement over last season. Best will be relied on to carry the load until Smith can return to help out. Even when that happens, Best’s receiving ability allows the Lions to use him like the queen on a chess board, which will keep him producing the fantasy points. Expect Best to have a greater value in PPR leagues, but will still finish with very respectable totals.

#4 CJ Spiller RB BUF

Spiller the Thriller has some question marks coming into the season, but he has the skills to pay off the Bills. His talents are undeniable, but his role in the overcrowded Bills’ backfield are leaving many dubious that he can make an immediate imprint on the league. But not I. At the draft, the Bills wasted little time running out on stage to make Spiller theirs -- they’re going to use him. Spiller’s specific skill set is geared towards agility and breakaway speed. I envision Chan Gailey using Spiller much like Best will be used in Detroit. He’ll take snaps in the backfield and, considering the Bills’ lack of depth at receiver, he’ll see some time in slot as well. Spiller will also be heavily involved on special teams returning punts and kickoffs, so bump him up your draft boards if your league counts those stats. When I think about Spiller’s potential for this season I see shades of Reggie Bush’s rookie season. He’ll be significantly more valuable in PPR leagues than your standard formats, but should break off enough big plays to make him a very productive RB3/Flex with the potential for a lot more. 

#5 Golden Tate WR SEA

Although there's stench seeped into his core from his days at Notre Dame, Tate has a chance to learn from a real winner in Pete Carroll. Seattle is in full overhaul mode this season and Tate is one of the cornerstones the franchise is building around. He has all the ability of DeSean Jackson, making him an immediate threat in the vertical passing game and on special teams. Five years ago, I would have thought twice about drafting speedy, little rookie, but the recent success of the aforementioned Jackson and Percy Harvin have heightened my expectations on the impact a rookie wideout can make. For all the Notre Dame bashing that goes into my writing, I will admit that Tate may be the most NFL ready of all receivers from this draft playing three years in the pro-style offense that Charlie Weis was running. Carroll isn’t going to have any reservations inserting Tate into the starting lineup from day one. Fantasy owners should feel the same way too. Editor's Note: 9/4/10: Tate has had a tough preseason and is buried on the depth chart.

#6 Arrelious Benn WR TB

With the departure of Antonio Bryant to the Bengals this off-season, the Bucs decided to address their gaping hole at receiver through the draft, and more specifically with Benn. Benn is a pretty polished product coming out of Illinois and shouldn't have too much of a problem earning the number one receiver gig against the likes of Sammie Stroughter and Mike Williams. Don’t expect too much from Benn early in the season, he still needs time to develop a rapport with sophomore quarterback Josh Freeman. But once that happens, the skies the limit for former Illini. Benn will come at a discounted price on draft day and will pay dividends in the season’s second half. He won’t end the year as a top-20 wideout, but he should have enough late season value to fill out your WR3 slot or give you some bench depth. He’s an excellent late round flyer who could have the same sort of impact that Jermey Maclin gave the Eagles last season. While everyone of this list has excellent keeper value, bargain hunters should shoot for Benn. He’s being groomed as the Bucs stud receiver of the future, will have excellent long term value and will come at a better price than all other rookie receivers who can be usable this season. Editor's Note: 9/4/10: Mike Williams has proven to be far superior to Benn in the preseason and is the rookie TB WR to draft.

#7 Jermaine Graham TE CIN

After years spent overlooking the tight end position, the Bengals finally broke down and filled the hole with the stud out of Oklahoma. With the off-season acquisition of Antonio Bryant to compliment Ochocinco on the outside, Graham should have plenty of room to maneuver between the numbers. He has a distinct size advantage against anyone covering him and will operate as a safety valve for the suddenly weak armed Carson Palmer. Graham should finish the season as a top-12 tight end and has an upside much higher than that. 

#8 Eric Decker WR DEN

The Broncos may have spent a first round pick on the Rick James of receivers, Super Freak Demaryious Thomas, but he’s a work in progress. Decker, on the other hand, was a four year starter at Minnesota and will be relied upon to fill a need in Denver’s depleted receiving corps. Upper Decker enters the year behind Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley on Denver's depth chart, but any flash of his skill should propel him into a starting gig over those two deadweights sooner rather than later. Decker is another name that will be over looked on draft day, but he’ll make an excellent depth player that should help your team as the season moves forward. As they say in Minnesota, Gopher him.  

Click here to read our thoughts on other rookies outside the Top Eight. Ask a question about your dynasty draft or keeper league in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.
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