NFL - 2010 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Posted by: ThePME

Tagged in: Fantasy Football

ThePME

(Main write-ups by Mayo, "ALSO" write-ups by Dave Gawron)

We feel that the following players are likely to out-earn their ADP (average draft value). ADP provided by mockdraftcentral.com.


QUARTERBACK

Flacco, Joe BAL (Positional ADP 15, PME RANK 9)

The days of the Ravens’ defensive supremacy are quickly coming to an end. After what seems like decades of a run between the tackles, ball control offense in Baltimore, Flacco has been given a plethora of options to use at his disposal. The Ravens still boast a dominating running game, led by the dynamic Ray Rice and the touchdown poaching Willis McGahee. The constant threat of the run will give Flacco the time he needs to put his gigantic arm to good use. Newly acquired Anquan Boldin should have a profound impact on the passing game. For the first time since moving back to Baltimore, the Ravens have a star receiver. Boldin’s playmaking abilities make him a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball and, more importantly for Flacco, the extra coverage he draws will leave the collection of Derrick Mason, Dante Stallworth, Todd Heap and Mark Clayton with some pretty favorable match-ups. Flacco’s fantasy value will really depend on the aforementioned Rice. Rice will need to draw defenders into the box to mitigate the pass rush, but he’ll also need to duplicated the impact he made in the receiving game -- 78 catches, 702 yards, 1 touchdown -- for Flacco to take the next step into fantasy stardom. Flacco is currently the 15th quarterback coming off the board, 94th overall, and is being taken after the likes of Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb and Matt Ryan -- three guys Flacco should blow out of the water. Although he’s currently being drafted a as back-up in standard leagues, Flacco has the potential to take his game to the next level in 2010 -- think of him as this year’s Matt Schaub.   

ALSO

  • Romo, Tony DAL - We all know he's good, but he has a shot at putting up elite numbers this season with Austin, Dez Bryant, Witten, and Felix Jones all hauling in passes.
  • Cutler, Jay CHI - Two words: Mike Martz. And if Cutler still has his accuracy and decision-making problems from last year, he didn't cost you much. Do walk away from your draft with another solid QB in tow, just in case, but Cutler could potentially pay huge dividends for you.
  • Kolb, Kevin PHI - He is in a great spot for a QB, surrounded by excellent weapons, a decent offensive line, and a great offensive scheme for quarterbacks. And you had better believe that the Eagles will do everything they can to help him put up numbers to justify letting McNabb go.
  • Palmer, Carson CIN - The Bengals added some weapons in Antonio Bryant at WR and the rookie Gresham at TE. Shipley looks like a good slot receiver, and Caldwell is still hanging around. Palmer continues to progress from his big injury a couple years back. There's talk of a more Colts-like offense in Cincy. He absolutely should not be your starter, but he's worth taking a shot on as your fantasy QB2.
  • Stafford, Matthew DET - The Lions added the rookie Best at RB, Burleson at WR, and Scheffler at TE. Add that to Calvin Johnson and a year of experience for Stafford last season, and you have yourself a fantasy QB2 that can play like a #1 for several weeks in the 2010 season.

 

RUNNING BACK

Beanie Wells RB, Arizona (Positional ADP 14, PME RANK 8)

The time has finally come for head coach Ken Whisenhunt to implement the run first, ball control style of offense that was expected from him when he was lured away from the Steelers. Unfortunately for that plan, the pieces in place when he took over didn’t really lend themselves to a run heavy system. There was no credible ground threat in the desert. The only threat Edgerrin James posed that season was to my sanity. To make matters worse, the offensive line was in complete disarray; getting absolutely no push and losing the majority of battles in the trenches. While that all may seem like bad news, Whisenhunt did inherit an explosive passing game that carried the team to two consecutive playoff births and a Super Bowl appearance in 2008. Enter 2010. Future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner has been put out to pasture. Superstar receiver Anquan Boldin was shipped off to Baltimore. The loss of these two key cogs in that high octane aerial attack, combined with the unproven Matt Leinhart taking over under center, makes it high time to get to that ground game going. This is all good news for one Beanie Wells. The Cards have upgraded the offensive line over the last two years and the addition of perennial Pro Bowler Alan Faneca this off-season will give them the veteran leadership that has been lacking. As for possible usurpers, Tim Hightower is still kicking around, but with his receiving abilities and putrid ypc (career 3.5), he’s better suited for a third down role. It took Wells about half a season to get acclimated to the NFL game, but showed us why the Cards used a first round pick on him in the second half. Beanie totaled 662 yards and 6 scores from weeks 9-16 (with a 4.74 ypc) and his numbers will only improve with his expanded role in his sophomore season. Wells has all the ability to be a top-10 running back and now has the perfect situation, well maybe the second best situation, to go along with it. When running backs start flying off the board at the end of the first/early second round, don’t panic. Just wait on Wells and you won’t be sorry.

ALSO

  • Forte, Matt CHI - Don't go overboard for him, as he could lose serious touches to Chester Taylor, but there's also a chance that Mike Martz turns him into Marshall Faulk. Don't let him slip too far based on a bad 2009.
  • Jones, Felix DAL - It could be a pretty even timeshare with Marion Barber, but Jones should be very effective in PPR leagues. His timeshare situation is driving his ADP below his value.
  • Bush, Michael OAK - Again, a timeshare with Darren McFadden is hurting his ADP, but with Jason Campbell at quarterback, a real passing game should emerge, opening up running lanes for Bush. Editor's Note: 9/4/10: Bush will miss September due to injury but is still worth taking at a discount as the eventual starter when he returns.
  • Tomlinson, LaDainian NYJ - Forget the guy that was drafted #1 overall just a few short years ago. However, don't avoid this shell of a superstar completely. Like the Panthers, the Jets should run enough to support two running backs, Greene and Tomlinson. Tomlinson should see many touchdowns and receptions -- enough to be a useful FLEX player.
  • Slaton, Steve HOU - Slaton was awful in 2009, but much of that was due to injury. He should stay buried a bit in his Houston RBBC with Foster and Tate, but he should do enough on the receiving end to be a good FLEX player.
  • Maroney, Laurence NE - We're not incredibly high on Maroney, but he does share the backfield with two aging backs in Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor. He has failed thus far but is only 25 and worth a selection late in your draft to reserve until he becomes the featured back. Editor's Note: 9/4/10: Maroney has had a rough preseason. Just watch him on the waiver wire instead of drafting him.
  • Johnson, Larry WAS - Johnson may end up being worthless this season, but reports out of camp are excellent. Stash him as a reserve back, because at some point, he could easily push Portis into a third-down back role and take hold of downs one and two.

 

WIDE RECEIVER

Golden Tate WR, Seattle (Positional ADP 57, PME RANK 35)

Pete Carroll and company really got a golden ticket when Tate fell to them at pick 58. Having played in a pro-style offense at Notre Dame, Tate should quickly acclimate himself in the Seahawks’ offense. He gets to play relatively stress free, serving as the slot receiver on a team that’s essentially in a rebuilding year. While projecting Tate for 2010, I look no further than Percy Harvin’s tremendous rookie campaign. It may be presumptuous to assume that Tate can make the same sort impact as the 2009 rookie of the year, but I don’t think it’s necessarily out of the question. Comparing the numbers from their final years in college led to some glaring similarities.    

 Stats Tate - 2009 Harvin - 2008
 REC 9340 

 REC Yds 

 1496644 
 REC Avg 16.116.1 
 RUSH 2570 
 RUSH Yds 186660 
 RUSH Avg 7.49.4 
 Punt Returns 32
 PR Yds 171
 REC TD 15
 RUSH TD 210 
 PR TD 1
 Total TD 1817 

Their stats show that they’re both from cut from the same mold. Both their games are built around using speed in space. The only difference between the two for 2010 will be the offense they play in. Harvin finished his tremendous rookie campaign with 60 catches, 790 yards and 6 TD through the air. He chipped in 1156 return yards and an extra two TDs on special teams. Harvin was able to accomplish all this despite missing a game and playing sparingly in two others. Now Tate doesn’t a have a future Hall of Famer throwing him the ball, but his ability to make short catches and turn them into home runs is too much to over look. The Golden boy is currently being drafted as the #57 receiver, behind the likes of Bernard Berrian, Devin Hester, Demaryious Thomas, Eddie Royal, Kevin Walter, and Muhammad Massaquoi. Tate has a much higher upside than any of these albatrosses, even with Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst tossing him the ball. He’ll outperform his ADP by a substantial margin and should make an excellent WR3, which is great at the price he’s currently going for. 18 touchdowns at any level of football shows a distinct nose for the end zone which fantasy owners will soon fall in love with. If your league counts return stats, bump him up a bit more. Editor's Note: 9/4/10: Sorry, Pat, but Tate has had a tough preseason and is buried on the depth chart.

  • Crabtree, Michael SF - He has a shot at being a PPR machine. The only thing holding him back might be his team's structure of focusing on a solid defense and running game, thus limiting his total targets.
  • Nicks, Hakeem NY - He is a superstar waiting to happen. He was a dinged up rookie last year. He could really establish himself as an elitewide-out in his second year in the NFL.
  • Welker, Wes NE - He's simply falling too low. As of now, with the murky timetable on his return, if you draft him a little before his current ADP, you're still getting value even if he only gives you the last eight weeks of elite PPR value. Draft Julian Edelman late, and you're covered.
  • Bryant, Dez DAL - Very rarely does a rookie so exciting enter the league. He has a pretty good chance of out-earning his ADP.
  • Burleson, Nate DET - He should get some nice open looks and plenty of targets across from Megatron.
  • Knox, Johnny CHI - The Mike Martz offense should turn him into at least a solid fantasy WR3.
  • Jones, Jacoby HOU - He is more talented than Kevin Walter and should take over the WR2 spot on the Texans this season.

 

TIGHT END

Brent Celek TE, Philadelphia (Positional ADP 8, PME RANK 4)

There is no better friend to an inexperienced quarterback than a sure handed tight end. Celek proved this last season while Kevin Kolb was at the helm. In two games, Celek posted 16 catches, 208 yards and a TD. Not too shabby. The Captain is coming off a breakout year which saw him catch 76 balls for 971 and 8 TD, placing him in the top 5 at the position. Many will argue that tight end is very deep this season, but I don’t see it that way. All I see is a myriad of question marks surrounding some bigger names. Do you really trust Jason Witten anymore? I certainly don’t. How about Tony Gonzalez? Not so much. The fantasy community seems to be sold on Jermichael Finley. I can’t dispute the talent, but he lacks the type of consistency that fantasy owners crave. This is why Celek is the best option after the upper tier (Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, and Antonio Gates) is long gone. He’s dependable every week, still has room to improve on his terrific stats, and, most importantly, his floor is much higher than all the other second tier guys. Just like The Dude, many players abide by the strategy of waiting on tight ends. If you’re one of these people, target Celek for all your teams. He won’t disappoint.  

ALSO

  • Cooley, Chris WAS - He should come at a big injury discount after last year. The good news is that McNabb likes his tight ends, and Cooley could get a whole bunch of red zone targets. The bad news is that Fred Davis is a capable TE2 on the Redskins, and he could take half of those potential red zone targets. He's a risk, so couple him with another decent TE, but he's going late, so he's worth considering.
  • Winslow, Kellen TB - Normally, we'd tell you to stay away from an injury risk with bad knees. However, he's been going pretty late. If you can get him at a discount and then draft another tight end like Zach Miller, say, in rounds seven and eight, you're in good shape at tight end.
  • Miller, Zach OAK - Remember his one huge game last season? He may not have another one that big this year, but with an actual NFL quarterback tossing him the pigskin, look for more consistent numbers in 2010, surely exceeding his ADP. He should be this year's version of the 2009 Vernon Davis, to a lesser extent.

 

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