We feel that the following players are likely to not end up earning their ADP (average draft value). Rookies are not included here. They have their own article.

 

QUARTERBACKS

There really aren't any "busts" at the QB position in 2010. However, here are a couple players we're not as fond of as others:

• McNabb, Donovan WAS - Washington is not Philadelphia. He is not supported there by the weapons he had in Philly, nor the offensive line scheme, nor the offensive philosophy/scheme. He'll have his good weeks, but he'll have his bad ones, and he is likely to come up with an injury or two along the way. Leave him for another owner going on name recognition.
• Ryan, Matt ATL - Matt Ryan is an excellent up-and-coming NFL quarterback, but he will be just a fantasy QB2 again in 2010, though some see him as a QB1. They'll still hand the ball off to Turner plenty.
• Manning, Eli NY - He's not an awful pick, but because the defense underachieved last season, and the running game faltered, the Giants had to pass often. They may have a better defense and running game in 2010, causing them to pass much more infrequently.
• Roethlisberger, Ben PIT - Some owners are trying to be sneaky and take Ben at a discount. Don't be one of those. He'll miss too much time, likely be rusty for a bit when he returns, and then struggle down the stretch vs. a tough schedule.

 

RUNNING BACKS

McCoy, LeSean PHI

He might run well between the twenties and catch some passes, but he should rarely get red zone looks. Just because he is replacing Brian Westbrook, that doesn't mean he IS Brian Westbrook. The Eagles have passed often with McNabb and will pass often with Kolb. Don't expect miracles from McCoy. He'll be decent, but we don't trust him where he's going (#45 overall) in drafts.

ALSO

• Brown, Ronnie MIA - Brown will have his big games, but he's in a true time-share with Ricky Williams, so you never know when they'll come. Also, of course, he has trouble staying healthy. We like youngsters like Wells, Mathews, and Moreno better.
• Barber, Marion DAL - Granted, he was playing hurt last season, but didn't it look like he lost a step? The team is clearly transitioning to Felix Jones, and while Barber should still see plenty of carries, including those of the goal line variety, he's being drafted too high based on name recognition.
• Harrison, Jerome CLE - You look at what he did late last season, and you start to salivate. However, remember that it's just a small sample size. The Browns seem intent on keeping Harrison out of full-time work. He should get plenty of receptions as a change-of-pace and third-down back in PPR leagues, but you have to expect Montario Hardesty to win the starting job and limit Harrison's fantasy effectiveness. Editor's Note: 9/4/10: Hillis replaces Hardesty, but we still think Harrison won't earn his ADP.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Smith, Steve NYG

Hicks is emerging, Manningham is still around, Boss is getting more involved, and the Giants simply won't pass as much in 2010. All signs point to Smith's reception, yardage, and touchdown totals dropping this season (though he's still worth drafting as long as your league-mates don't over-value him).

ALSO

• Driver, Donald GB - Maybe the surgeries on both knees did the trick, and he's healthier than he's been in a while. Then again, he's 35 and just had surgery on both knees! There are certainly safer bets out there in fantasy.
• Meachem, Robert NO - He is a good, young talent, for sure, but he's coming off a toe injury and he has a slew of other receivers to share targets with. He won't totally stink, but he'll be inconsistent, and he may not live up to expectations.
• Edwards, Braylon NYJ - He drops too many passes, and he's on a running team with perhaps the best defense in the league. The Jets will have Santonio Holmes back before you know it, and Edwards still has to share targets with Cotchery, Keller, and Tomlinson, as well. Stay away from Edwards.

 

TIGHT ENDS

This is a deep position with no real busts. In leagues where you can start a TE at the FLEX position or deep (14+) team leagues, taking a top tight end like Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates early is more acceptable than it would be in a 10 or 12 team league. In those leagues, you can wait until later and take a low-end option or two and focus on RB and WR early without losing much at the TE position. So, in a shallow league, we wouldn't use the "B" word, but we'd recommend avoiding the top tight ends like Clark and Gates since value can be had later.

 

KICKERS & DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Any kicker or D/ST that you draft before the final round or two of your draft is a potential bust. Even the best aren't very stable from year to year when it comes to fantasy points, so it's hard to say that one will be that much better than another. Also, week-to-week consistency is tough to find at the positions, so you may as well play match-ups, just drafting decent options with a good Week 1 match-ups on draft day.