MLB - 2010 Fantasy Baseball 1/31/10 Expert Mock Draft Analysis
Posted by: buck
on Feb 7, 2010
On Sunday, January 31, 2010, RotoCommunity.com participated in a fantasy baseball mock draft (on Mock Draft Central) with the other industry experts listed below. Player position eligibility was provided by Mock Draft Central. We assumed standard 5x5 category roto scoring with 23 starters and no reserves (for the purposes of the mock). Here's how the draft went down round-by-round, with analysis following each round.
You can go here to read about my first mock draft of the season last week. That one was a 12-teamer, and this one is a 15-teamer. Obviously, the talent pool doesn't run as deep with three more teams in play, and a blown pick here can be extremely costly. My strategy in deep formats is pretty much in line with my tried-and-true draft philosophy:
- Load up on offense early, grabbing four and five category performers where possible.
- Bargain shop for starting pitchers, look for top-notch #2 and #3 rotation guys, with high-K hurlers given preference.
- Watch for "boring" veterans to fall too far.
- Keep positional scarcity in mind, and
- Don't overpay for saves.
ROUND 1
| Round | Team | Player | Pos | Team |
| R1 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Pujols, Albert | 1B | STL |
| R1 P2 | @joelhenard | Ramirez, Hanley | SS | FLA |
| R1 P3 | aaron marks | Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | NYY |
| R1 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Braun, Ryan | OF | MIL |
| R1 P5 | Running with Scissors | Teixeira, Mark | 1B | NYY |
| R1 P6 | @fantasytaz | Kemp, Matt | OF | LA |
| R1 P7 | asyd blues | Fielder, Prince | 1B | MIL |
| R1 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Crawford, Carl | OF | TB |
| R1 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Utley, Chase | 2B | PHI |
| R1 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Longoria, Evan | 3B | TB |
| R1 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Mauer, Joe | C | MIN |
| R1 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Howard, Ryan | 1B | PHI |
| R1 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Cabrera, Miguel | 1B | DET |
| R1 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Kinsler, Ian | 2B | TEX |
| R1 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Lincecum, Tim | SP | SF |
Braun is a no-brainer pick here, especially in a format with five starting outfielders. Mauer at No. 11 was a bit of a surprise, but if he replicates last year's numbers, he'll be a top-10 fantasy pick next season. Miggy at 13 was a nice little bargain -- for a guy who posted .324-34-103 last season, he's not getting much respect in the early going.
ROUND 2
| R2 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Votto, Joey | 1B | CIN |
| R2 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Tulowitzki, Troy | SS | COL |
| R2 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Reynolds, Mark | 3B | ARI |
| R2 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Wright, David | 3B | NYM |
| R2 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Ellsbury, Jacoby | OF | BOS |
| R2 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Holliday, Matt | OF | STL |
| R2 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Greinke, Zack | SP | KC |
| R2 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Youkilis, Kevin | 1B | BOS |
| R2 P9 | asyd blues | Werth, Jayson | OF | PHI |
| R2 P10 | @fantasytaz | Zimmerman, Ryan | 3B | WAS |
| R2 P11 | Running with Scissors | Martinez, Victor | C | BOS |
| R2 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Rollins, Jimmy | SS | PHI |
| R2 P13 | aaron marks | Phillips, Brandon | 2B | CIN |
| R2 P14 | @joelhenard | Sizemore, Grady | OF | CLE |
| R2 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Hernandez, Felix | SP | SEA |
Shortstop runs a bit thin at the upper levels this season, so I wanted to grab a big-time talent early on. J-Roll is a virtual lock for 20-plus homers and 30-plus steals, but he'll need to bump his average back up to the .280 range to warrant a pick this early in the draft. I think he will. Votto at #13 and Werth at #24 seemed a bit early to me, but there's no denying that Joey-V is capable of some big things in 2010.
ROUND 3
| R3 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Haren, Dan | SP | ARI |
| R3 P2 | @joelhenard | Reyes, Jose | SS | NYM |
| R3 P3 | aaron marks | Upton, Justin | OF | ARI |
| R3 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Roberts, Brian | 2B | BAL |
| R3 P5 | Running with Scissors | Halladay, Roy | SP | PHI |
| R3 P6 | @fantasytaz | Verlander, Justin | SP | DET |
| R3 P7 | asyd blues | Pedroia, Dustin | 2B | BOS |
| R3 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Sabathia, CC | SP | NYY |
| R3 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Gonzalez, Adrian | 1B | SD |
| R3 P10 | 10-4-Drew | McCann, Brian | C | ATL |
| R3 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Suzuki, Ichiro | OF | SEA |
| R3 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Jeter, Derek | SS | NYY |
| R3 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Granderson, Curtis | OF | NYY |
| R3 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Lind, Adam | OF | TOR |
| R3 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Markakis, Nick | OF | BAL |
It was a bit of a reach for Roberts here, but with such a dearth of elite talent in the middle infield, I wanted to act quickly... and B-Rob would not have made it back. Pedroia was also a possibility here, and I really don't have a preference between the two. Grandy at 3.13 struck me as too early. The guy can't hit lefties, people!
ROUND 4
| R4 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Cano, Robinson | 2B | NYY |
| R4 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Morneau, Justin | 1B | MIN |
| R4 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Zobrist, Ben | 2B | TB |
| R4 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Dunn, Adam | OF | WAS |
| R4 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Morales, Kendry | 1B | ANA |
| R4 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Sandoval, Pablo | 3B | SF |
| R4 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Broxton, Jonathan | RP | LA |
| R4 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Cruz, Nelson | OF | TEX |
| R4 P9 | asyd blues | Papelbon, Jonathan | RP | BOS |
| R4 P10 | @fantasytaz | Butler, Billy | 1B | KC |
| R4 P11 | Running with Scissors | Bourn, Michael | OF | HOU |
| R4 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Bay, Jason | OF | NYM |
| R4 P13 | aaron marks | Santana, Johan | SP | NYM |
| R4 P14 | @joelhenard | Hill, Aaron | 2B | TOR |
| R4 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Lee, Carlos | OF | HOU |
Theft... larceny... an absolute crime getting Bay with the 57th overall pick. Not too shocking, though. I've found that "boring" veteran players tend to get overlooked in many industry drafts, with the fantasy pros opting for high-upside guys instead. That's fine with me, as I'll be there to give the old guys their due. I see Bay dropping off a bit this year, but he'll still post solid numbers for the Mets. Cruz is a very risky pick here, but he could pay big dividends. I prefer drafting proven players in the early going, and Bay fits that bill perfectly.
ROUND 5
| R5 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Choo, Shin-Soo | OF | CLE |
| R5 P2 | @joelhenard | Victorino, Shane | OF | PHI |
| R5 P3 | aaron marks | Upton, B.J. | OF | TB |
| R5 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Wainwright, Adam | SP | STL |
| R5 P5 | Running with Scissors | Hamilton, Josh | OF | TEX |
| R5 P6 | @fantasytaz | Lee, Cliff | SP | SEA |
| R5 P7 | asyd blues | Abreu, Bobby | OF | ANA |
| R5 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Ramirez, Aramis | 3B | CHC |
| R5 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Rivera, Mariano | RP | NYY |
| R5 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Ethier, Andre | OF | LA |
| R5 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Ramirez, Manny | OF | LA |
| R5 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Lester, Jon | SP | BOS |
| R5 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Bruce, Jay | OF | CIN |
| R5 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Nathan, Joe | RP | MIN |
| R5 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Figgins, Chone | 3B | SEA |
Wainwright was one of the last true #1 starting pitchers on the board, so I decided to pull the trigger. I'm a big fan of grabbing a couple of second and third-tier starting pitchers in the middle rounds rather than overspending to land that big-time ace. Man-Ram seems to be falling way too far in drafts, and I can foresee him ending up on a few of my teams at this price.
ROUND 6
| R6 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Jones, Adam | OF | BAL |
| R6 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Pence, Hunter | OF | HOU |
| R6 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Gonzalez, Carlos | OF | COL |
| R6 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Lee, Derrek | 1B | CHC |
| R6 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Pena, Carlos | 1B | TB |
| R6 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Beltran, Carlos | OF | NYM |
| R6 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Beckham, Gordon | 3B | CHW |
| R6 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Bartlett, Jason | SS | TB |
| R6 P9 | asyd blues | Young, Michael | 3B | TEX |
| R6 P10 | @fantasytaz | Lopez, Jose | 2B | SEA |
| R6 P11 | Running with Scissors | Carpenter, Chris | SP | STL |
| R6 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Berkman, Lance | 1B | HOU |
| R6 P13 | aaron marks | Drew, Stephen | SS | ARI |
| R6 P14 | @joelhenard | Hunter, Torii | OF | ANA |
| R6 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Cain, Matt | SP | SF |
Another classic "veteran coming off a down year falls too far" scenario. Berkman managed .274-25-80 last season in just 136 games. He's far from through at age 34, and he's a steal 87 picks into this draft. I was sorry to see Cain go, as I was targeting him for the next round.
ROUND 7
| R7 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Uggla, Dan | 2B | FLA |
| R7 P2 | @joelhenard | Hanson, Tommy | SP | ATL |
| R7 P3 | aaron marks | Gallardo, Yovani | SP | MIL |
| R7 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Duchscherer, Justin | SP | OAK |
| R7 P5 | Running with Scissors | Johnson, Josh | SP | FLA |
| R7 P6 | @fantasytaz | Ramirez, Alexei | SS | CHW |
| R7 P7 | asyd blues | McCutchen, Andrew | OF | PIT |
| R7 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Beckett, Josh | SP | BOS |
| R7 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | McLouth, Nate | OF | ATL |
| R7 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Soria, Joakim | RP | KC |
| R7 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Posada, Jorge | C | NYY |
| R7 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Jimenez, Ubaldo | SP | COL |
| R7 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Nolasco, Ricky | SP | FLA |
| R7 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Peavy, Jake | SP | CHW |
| R7 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Rodriguez, Francisco | RP | NYM |
A good draft gone bad... My battles with the MDC interface and server continue, as I lose a pick to the AI for the second straight draft. Duchscherer was in my queue as a late-round flier pick, and unfortunately the AI grabbed him when I lagged out. Josh Johnson was my "real" pick here, but I never got to make it. I think I've solved the issue with the draft app (too many "live updates" running at the same time), and I'm glad I got it worked out before the season started. Hey, that's what mocks are for, right? This isn't a knock on MDC -- I just overloaded my computer -- but I'll definitely trim things down while drafting from here on out.
ROUND 8
| R8 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Garza, Matt | SP | TB |
| R8 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Bell, Heath | RP | SD |
| R8 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Rodriguez, Wandy | SP | HOU |
| R8 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Soriano, Alfonso | OF | CHC |
| R8 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Cordero, Francisco | RP | CIN |
| R8 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Kershaw, Clayton | SP | LA |
| R8 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Span, Denard | OF | MIN |
| R8 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Prado, Martin | 2B | ATL |
| R8 P9 | asyd blues | Vazquez, Javier | SP | NYY |
| R8 P10 | @fantasytaz | Montero, Miguel | C | ARI |
| R8 P11 | Running with Scissors | Ibanez, Raul | OF | PHI |
| R8 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Suzuki, Kurt | C | OAK |
| R8 P13 | aaron marks | Wieters, Matt | C | BAL |
| R8 P14 | @joelhenard | Cuddyer, Michael | OF | MIN |
| R8 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Fuentes, Brian | RP | ANA |
Two-catcher formats mandate that you focus on the position a little earlier than otherwise, and Suzuki is a rock-solid No. 1 backstop. I'll wait (and wait) on catchers in single-catcher leagues, but I can't afford that luxury here. I think Kershaw could develop into a real fantasy force this season, and Ibanez represents nice value this late.
ROUND 9
| R9 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Marmol, Carlos | RP | CHC |
| R9 P2 | @joelhenard | Lackey, John | SP | BOS |
| R9 P3 | aaron marks | Stewart, Ian | 3B | COL |
| R9 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Jones, Chipper | 3B | ATL |
| R9 P5 | Running with Scissors | Bailey, Andrew | RP | OAK |
| R9 P6 | @fantasytaz | Valverde, Jose | RP | HOU |
| R9 P7 | asyd blues | Martin, Russell | C | LA |
| R9 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Wagner, Billy | RP | ATL |
| R9 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Kubel, Jason | OF | MIN |
| R9 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Hamels, Cole | SP | PHI |
| R9 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Feliz, Neftali | SP | TEX |
| R9 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Morgan, Nyjer | OF | WAS |
| R9 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Soriano, Rafael | RP | TB |
| R9 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Quentin, Carlos | OF | CHW |
| R9 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Wilson, Brian | RP | SF |
Third base dries up very quickly this year, and Chipper gives me at least a viable option at the hot corner. If you get him, though, make sure to back him up with another strong option -- Chipper's just too brittle for most managers' comfort levels. I considered a closer here, but saves are generally available on the waiver wire during the season, while good starting third basemen aren't.
ROUND 10
| R10 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Beltre, Adrian | 3B | SEA |
| R10 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Weaver, Jered | SP | ANA |
| R10 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Jurrjens, Jair | SP | ATL |
| R10 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Street, Huston | RP | COL |
| R10 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Cantu, Jorge | 1B | FLA |
| R10 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Tejada, Miguel | SS | HOU |
| R10 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Davis, Chris | 1B | TEX |
| R10 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Soto, Geovany | C | CHC |
| R10 P9 | asyd blues | Franklin, Ryan | RP | STL |
| R10 P10 | @fantasytaz | Wells, Vernon | OF | TOR |
| R10 P11 | Running with Scissors | Escobar, Yunel | SS | ATL |
| R10 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Billingsley, Chad | SP | LA |
| R10 P13 | aaron marks | Kendrick, Howie | 2B | ANA |
| R10 P14 | @joelhenard | Molina, Bengie | C | SF |
| R10 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Burnett, A.J. | SP | NYY |
Billingsley is a fine strikeout pitcher who needs only to harness his plus stuff in order to achieve top-shelf fantasy status among starting pitchers. He's still only 25 years old, and that 3.38 ERA with 119 K in 125-plus innings he laid on the board in the first half last year shows that the tools for greatness are there. I like Adrian Beltre this year, but with Tim in the draft, I knew there was no way he'd fall to me.
ROUND 11
| R11 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Kouzmanoff, Kevin | 3B | SD |
| R11 P2 | @joelhenard | Jenks, Bobby | RP | CHW |
| R11 P3 | aaron marks | Baker, Scott | SP | MIN |
| R11 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Davis, Rajai | OF | OAK |
| R11 P5 | Running with Scissors | Gordon, Alex | 3B | KC |
| R11 P6 | @fantasytaz | Webb, Brandon | SP | ARI |
| R11 P7 | asyd blues | Cabrera, Asdrubal | SS | CLE |
| R11 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Anderson, Brett | SP | OAK |
| R11 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Hawpe, Brad | OF | COL |
| R11 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Aardsma, David | RP | SEA |
| R11 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Danks, John | SP | CHW |
| R11 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Francisco, Frank | RP | TEX |
| R11 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Qualls, Chad | RP | ARI |
| R11 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Hoffman, Trevor | RP | MIL |
| R11 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Rivera, Juan | OF | ANA |
Davis hit .325 and stole 30 bases in the second half last season. By way of comparison, Jacoby Ellsbury went .306 with 30 steals during the same period. Davis should have a regular starting gig this year, and 60-70 steals is not out of the question. I love the Brett Anderson pick and was sorry to see all of my targeted closers leave the board this round. Oh well, let's wait a little longer at that position.
ROUND 12
| R12 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Aybar, Erick | SS | ANA |
| R12 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Shields, James | SP | TB |
| R12 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Reimold, Nolan | OF | BAL |
| R12 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Iannetta, Chris | C | COL |
| R12 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Kazmir, Scott | SP | ANA |
| R12 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Lilly, Ted | SP | CHC |
| R12 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Dempster, Ryan | SP | CHC |
| R12 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | LaRoche, Adam | 1B | ATL |
| R12 P9 | asyd blues | Ortiz, David | DH | BOS |
| R12 P10 | @fantasytaz | Damon, Johnny | OF | NYY |
| R12 P11 | Running with Scissors | Swisher, Nick | OF | NYY |
| R12 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Rios, Alex | OF | CHW |
| R12 P13 | aaron marks | de la Rosa, Jorge | SP | COL |
| R12 P14 | @joelhenard | Jones, Garrett | OF | PIT |
| R12 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Napoli, Mike | C | ANA |
I just couldn't resist the potential value Rios presents at this point in the draft. In last year's "down season", Rios still popped 17 homers and stole 24 bags -- and I'm thinking that there's no way the .281 career hitter bats .247 again in 2010. Ozzie Guillen wants Rios to run more, and Alex swiped 32 bases "way" back in 2008. Reimold is a great sleeper pick, while the Damon selection may or may not pan out, depending on where -- and if -- he signs.
ROUND 13
| R13 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Doumit, Ryan | C | PIT |
| R13 P2 | @joelhenard | Andrus, Elvis | SS | TEX |
| R13 P3 | aaron marks | Stubbs, Drew | OF | CIN |
| R13 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Pierzynski, A.J. | C | CHW |
| R13 P5 | Running with Scissors | Weeks, Rickie | 2B | MIL |
| R13 P6 | @fantasytaz | Rodney, Fernando | RP | ANA |
| R13 P7 | asyd blues | Peralta, Jhonny | 3B | CLE |
| R13 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Cameron, Mike | OF | BOS |
| R13 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Borbon, Julio | OF | TEX |
| R13 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Jackson, Edwin | SP | ARI |
| R13 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Scherzer, Max | SP | DET |
| R13 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Floyd, Gavin | SP | CHW |
| R13 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Cabrera, Orlando | SS | MIN |
| R13 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Hudson, Tim | SP | ATL |
| R13 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Gonzalez, Mike | RP | BAL |
Pierzynski and Yadier Molina were the last two catchers I was comfortable with, so A.J. got the nod here. I like Mike Cameron and Edwin Jackson, but Stubbs' name might have been called a tad early. I like him, but his minor league track record suggests that last season's power surge may have been a fluke.
ROUND 14
| R14 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Coghlan, Chris | OF | FLA |
| R14 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Konerko, Paul | 1B | CHW |
| R14 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Ruiz, Carlos | C | PHI |
| R14 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Ross, Cody | OF | FLA |
| R14 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Nunez, Leo | RP | FLA |
| R14 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Ludwick, Ryan | OF | STL |
| R14 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Price, David | SP | TB |
| R14 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Harang, Aaron | SP | CIN |
| R14 P9 | asyd blues | Loney, James | 1B | LA |
| R14 P10 | @fantasytaz | Molina, Yadier | C | STL |
| R14 P11 | Running with Scissors | Guerrero, Vladimir | DH | ANA |
| R14 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Oswalt, Roy | SP | HOU |
| R14 P13 | aaron marks | Pierre, Juan | OF | CHW |
| R14 P14 | @joelhenard | Snider, Travis | OF | TOR |
| R14 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Gomez, Carlos | OF | MIL |
More "veterans falling too far" fun here, as Oswalt joins my pitching staff for a bargain price. Oz has implemented a new workout regimen, which is apparently doing wonders for his problematic back. I'm a big believer in an Oswalt rebound this season, and at this late stage, I consider him a absolute steal. Price was a great pick here, as his command improved dramatically in the second half of '09. He's poised for a breakout season, and at only 24 years of age, he still has considerable upside. There's something just not right about seeing Vlad Guerrero still on the board in Round 14. Health is a concern, but drafting him is a chance worth taking this late in the draft.
ROUND 15
| R15 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Capps, Matt | RP | WAS |
| R15 P2 | @joelhenard | Encarnacion, Edwin | 3B | TOR |
| R15 P3 | aaron marks | Saunders, Joe | SP | ANA |
| R15 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Lidge, Brad | RP | PHI |
| R15 P5 | Running with Scissors | Wood, Kerry | RP | CLE |
| R15 P6 | @fantasytaz | Gutierrez, Franklin | OF | SEA |
| R15 P7 | asyd blues | Podsednik, Scott | OF | COL |
| R15 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Dotel, Octavio | RP | CHW |
| R15 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Buchholz, Clay | SP | BOS |
| R15 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Fowler, Dexter | OF | COL |
| R15 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Furcal, Rafael | SS | LA |
| R15 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Johnson, Kelly | 2B | ARI |
| R15 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Sanchez, Jonathan | SP | SF |
| R15 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Hart, Corey | OF | MIL |
| R15 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Zambrano, Carlos | SP | CHC |
Woo-hoo, a closer! Lidge's 2009 disaster was so far out of character that I'm willing to bet he won't repeat it in 2010. He underwent shoulder and knee surgery in the offseason, and if he's fully healthy, he could regain some of the form that made him one of the game's best just two seasons ago. It's amazing to see Zambrano fall this far, but I get it -- the guy gives my ulcers headaches. Pods is a nifty pick -- I just love cheap speed, and the vet should swipe a bunch in K.C.'s small-ball attack.
ROUND 16
| R16 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Theriot, Ryan | SS | CHC |
| R16 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Slowey, Kevin | SP | MIN |
| R16 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Porcello, Rick | SP | DET |
| R16 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Cueto, Johnny | SP | CIN |
| R16 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Drew, J.D. | OF | BOS |
| R16 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Lopez, Felipe | 2B | MIL |
| R16 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Cabrera, Everth | SS | SD |
| R16 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | DeRosa, Mark | 3B | SF |
| R16 P9 | asyd blues | Wolf, Randy | SP | MIL |
| R16 P10 | @fantasytaz | Branyan, Russ | 1B | SEA |
| R16 P11 | Running with Scissors | Byrd, Marlon | OF | CHC |
| R16 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Helton, Todd | 1B | COL |
| R16 P13 | aaron marks | Johnson, Nick | 1B | NYY |
| R16 P14 | @joelhenard | Cust, Jack | OF | OAK |
| R16 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Escobar, Alcides | SS | MIL |
He's no longer a power threat, but Helton rebounded to post .325-15-86 last year. I'll take that from my corner infielder. I liked the Marlon Byrd pick, but I was less than thrilled with the J.D. Drew selection.
ROUND 17
| R17 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Scutaro, Marco | SS | BOS |
| R17 P2 | @joelhenard | Happ, J.A. | SP | PHI |
| R17 P3 | aaron marks | Matsuzaka, Daisuke | SP | BOS |
| R17 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Sheets, Ben | SP | MIL |
| R17 P5 | Running with Scissors | Blanton, Joe | SP | PHI |
| R17 P6 | @fantasytaz | Lowe, Derek | SP | ATL |
| R17 P7 | asyd blues | Correia, Kevin | SP | SD |
| R17 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Harden, Rich | SP | TEX |
| R17 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Jackson, Conor | OF | ARI |
| R17 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Bedard, Erik | SP | SEA |
| R17 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | McGehee, Casey | 3B | MIL |
| R17 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Hardy, J.J. | SS | MIN |
| R17 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Rasmus, Colby | OF | STL |
| R17 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Crisp, Coco | OF | OAK |
| R17 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Ordonez, Magglio | OF | DET |
I think Oakland GM Billy Beane is a pretty smart guy, and if he saw enough in Sheets' side session to offer Big Ben $10 million, then I'm willing to risk a 17th round draft pick. Big risk here, but enormous upside... and I'm down with that, here in the late going. Harden is another risk/reward pick, and I like Scutaro and Hardy as solid veteran value here.
ROUND 18
| R18 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Lewis, Colby | SP | TEX |
| R18 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Headley, Chase | OF | SD |
| R18 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Niemann, Jeff | SP | TB |
| R18 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Pineiro, Joel | SP | STL |
| R18 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Matsui, Hideki | DH | ANA |
| R18 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Izturis, Maicer | 2B | ANA |
| R18 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Bailey, Homer | SP | CIN |
| R18 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Hudson, Orlando | 2B | LA |
| R18 P9 | asyd blues | Heyward, Jason | OF | ATL |
| R18 P10 | @fantasytaz | DeJesus, David | OF | KC |
| R18 P11 | Running with Scissors | Atkins, Garrett | 3B | BAL |
| R18 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Maybin, Cameron | OF | FLA |
| R18 P13 | aaron marks | Matusz, Brian | SP | BAL |
| R18 P14 | @joelhenard | Thornton, Matt | RP | CHW |
| R18 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Dye, Jermaine | OF | CHW |
Maybin is still only 22 years old, and he posted .293-3-10 during his September call-up. The kid mashed out a .319 average at AAA last year, so maybe he's ready for the bigs. It would be nice to see him start running again, though. I like the Hudson pick, but I'm not a fan of a post-Dave Duncan, American League Joel Pineiro -- low strikeout rate and still an injury risk in my book. Matusz has some nice upside here, and maybe this is the year Homer Bailey finally puts it together.
ROUND 19
| R19 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Dukes, Elijah | OF | WAS |
| R19 P2 | @joelhenard | Gregerson, Luke | SP | SD |
| R19 P3 | aaron marks | Wood, Brandon | 3B | ANA |
| R19 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Blake, Casey | 3B | LA |
| R19 P5 | Running with Scissors | Barmes, Clint | 2B | COL |
| R19 P6 | @fantasytaz | Buehrle, Mark | SP | CHW |
| R19 P7 | asyd blues | Madson, Ryan | RP | PHI |
| R19 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Raburn, Ryan | OF | DET |
| R19 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Sizemore, Scott | 2B | DET |
| R19 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Baker, John | C | FLA |
| R19 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Willingham, Josh | OF | WAS |
| R19 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Bradley, Milton | OF | SEA |
| R19 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Polanco, Placido | 2B | PHI |
| R19 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Liriano, Francisco | SP | MIN |
| R19 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Freese, David | 3B | STL |
You know what you're getting with Casey Blake, and I see no reason why he won't come close to replicating the .280-18-79 he put on the board a season ago. Barmes was a fine pick here, and in hindsight, one I wish I had made. Oh well. Liriano carries a huge risk, but if he can continue his fine progress he started in Winter League, the rewards will be sweet indeed. I'm not buying the Elijah Dukes pick -- his power vanished last year, and he has more baggage than Southwest Airlines. No thanks.
ROUND 20
| R20 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Latos, Matt | SP | SD |
| R20 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Hafner, Travis | DH | CLE |
| R20 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Smith, Seth | OF | COL |
| R20 P4 | Scott Gilroy | Frasor, Jason | RP | TOR |
| R20 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Iwamura, Akinori | 2B | PIT |
| R20 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Strasburg, Stephen | SP | WAS |
| R20 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Avila, Alex | C | DET |
| R20 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Kuroda, Hiroki | SP | LA |
| R20 P9 | asyd blues | Millwood, Kevin | SP | BAL |
| R20 P10 | @fantasytaz | Thome, Jim | DH | CHW |
| R20 P11 | Running with Scissors | Myers, Brett | SP | PHI |
| R20 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Matsui, Kaz | 2B | HOU |
| R20 P13 | aaron marks | Venable, Will | OF | SD |
| R20 P14 | @joelhenard | Arroyo, Bronson | SP | CIN |
| R20 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Scott, Luke | OF | BAL |
Matsui finished strong last season, batting .290-4-14 with six steals in September. It's all about staying healthy for Kaz, but when he's out there, he's a fine fantasy option. This is about right for Strasburg, and I'd have grabbed him myself if I'd had the chance.
ROUND 21
| R21 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Gonzalez, Gio | SP | OAK |
| R21 P2 | @joelhenard | Marquis, Jason | SP | WAS |
| R21 P3 | aaron marks | Howell, J.P. | RP | TB |
| R21 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Downs, Scott | RP | TOR |
| R21 P5 | Running with Scissors | Olivo, Miguel | C | COL |
| R21 P6 | @fantasytaz | Uribe, Juan | 3B | SF |
| R21 P7 | asyd blues | Flores, Jesus | C | WAS |
| R21 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Buck, John | C | TOR |
| R21 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Santana, Ervin | SP | ANA |
| R21 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Huff, Aubrey | 1B | DET |
| R21 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Wang, Chien-Ming | SP | NYY |
| R21 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Inge, Brandon | 3B | DET |
| R21 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Kennedy, Adam | 3B | OAK |
| R21 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Rodriguez, Ivan | C | WAS |
| R21 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Placeholder, SP | SP | FA |
This draft was before the Kevin Gregg signing, so Downs looked to be heading for a competition with Jason Frasor for the Jays closer's job. The lefty did a decent job in the ninth for Toronto last year, and has always been one of the game's better set-up men.
ROUND 22
| R22 P1 | Tim@RotoRob | Santana, Carlos | C | CLE |
| R22 P2 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Hernandez, Ramon | C | CIN |
| R22 P3 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Saltalamaccia, Jarrod | C | TEX |
| R22 P4 | Scott Gilroy | League, Brandon | RP | SEA |
| R22 P5 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Lannan, John | SP | WAS |
| R22 P6 | 10-4-Drew | Fox, Jake | 3B | OAK |
| R22 P7 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Posey, Buster | C | SF |
| R22 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | Young, Delmon | OF | MIN |
| R22 P9 | asyd blues | Chamberlain, Joba | SP | NYY |
| R22 P10 | @fantasytaz | Pavano, Carl | SP | MIN |
| R22 P11 | Running with Scissors | Lyon, Brandon | RP | HOU |
| R22 P12 | Buck@RotoRob | Lindstrom, Matt | RP | HOU |
| R22 P13 | aaron marks | Bumgarner, Madison | SP | SF |
| R22 P14 | @joelhenard | Shoppach, Kelly | C | TB |
| R22 P15 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Sanchez, Anibal | SP | FLA |
Lindstrom was awful last season, but his stuff should earn him the first shot at closing for the 'Stros. Posey is a great prospect, but the signing of Bengie Molina may mean another year in AAA. Bumgarner is an intriguing pick -- the kid's only 20 but may start the year in the Giants rotation.
ROUND 23
| R23 P1 | Steve@optimalbaseball | Kotchman, Casey | 1B | BOS |
| R23 P2 | @joelhenard | Storen, Drew | RP | WAS |
| R23 P3 | aaron marks | Mathis, Jeff | C | ANA |
| R23 P4 | Buck@RotoRob | Hughes, Philip | SP | NYY |
| R23 P5 | Running with Scissors | Penny, Brad | SP | STL |
| R23 P6 | @fantasytaz | Zumaya, Joel | RP | DET |
| R23 P7 | asyd blues | Pettitte, Andy | SP | NYY |
| R23 P8 | Peter's Dawgs | VandenHurk, Rick | SP | FLA |
| R23 P9 | Matt Vandenbrand- FBTM.com | Rzepczynski, Marc | SP | TOR |
| R23 P10 | 10-4-Drew | Wells, Randy | SP | CHC |
| R23 P11 | Darryl Houston Smith - Rotowire | Feldman, Scott | SP | TEX |
| R23 P12 | Scott Gilroy | Barajas, Rod | C | TOR |
| R23 P13 | Ivar Anderson-Fantasy Gameday | Perez, Chris | RP | CLE |
| R23 P14 | Bob Sikon - Fantasy Baseball Trade Market | Ellis, Mark | 2B | OAK |
| R23 P15 | Tim@RotoRob | Moore, Adam | C | SEA |
I love Hughes this year -- his mound demeanor and wicked stuff scream "starter", and the Yanks look like they are finally ready to oblige him with a spot in the rotation. If he gets off to a hot start, look out. Storen may eventually supplant Capps as the closer in Washington, while Rzepczynski could be a surprise for the rebuilding Jays.
All in all, it was a decent draft for me. If Johnson is subbed in for Duchscherer, I have a solid starting rotation, good team speed, and a decent amount of power potential. I'm hurting for saves right now, but as I've said before, that's a category that regularly shows up on the waiver wire, so I'm not worried.
ALSO
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