MLB - 2010 Fantasy Baseball 1/17 and 1/19 Expert Mock Draft Trends Analysis
Posted by: ThePME
on Jan 26, 2010
I participated in two recent mock drafts on 1/17 and 1/19. I wrote the analysis/recap for the 1/17 draft, and fellow RC staff member, Jorge Pacheco Salib will soon recap the 1/19 draft. You can read those by clicking through the link(s). I'm here today to look back at both drafts and analyze positional, categorical, youth, and injury risk trends. (My team rosters are listed at the end of the article.)
Feel free to ask a question about your team/keepers in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.
POSITIONAL TRENDS
From these two drafts there were a few glaring trends -- most notably, the first round-first base run. If you can't get your hands on one of the elite five at the position -- Pujols, Teixeria, Cabrera, Howard, and Fielder -- you should just wait it out and attack more scarce positions. There's plenty of value to be had later on with guys like Lance Berkman, Kevin Youkilis, and Adrian Gonzalez all slipping down draft boards.
Historically, second base has been a weak position, but 2010 provides us with plethora of quality options. The problem is, you need to get on it early. Between the two drafts, the upper echelon of second-baggers is gone by the beginning of the fourth round. Who are the upper echelon of second baseman? Well, in a non-specific, but kind of specific order (I haven't finished my full rankings yet) those second baseman, with their projected round are -- Utley (1), Kinsler (2), Phillips (3), Hill (3), Cano (4), Pedroia (4), Roberts (4). You should think of going one of two ways. If you can grab Utley or Kinsler, go for it. You won't regret the pick come September. If you miss out on those two, start thinking about Jose Lopez later on. His buzz is increasing, but he was taken in the 8th and the 7th in these two drafts and should be considered at the bottom end of the previously listed group. Taking Lopez in the 8th is far better value than Hill in the third, it's quite possible they post identical stat lines this year.
After years of producing loads of fantasy talent, the left side of the infield is no longer so deep. If you don't get one of the top four (maybe 5) shortstops, you'll have a collection of lottery tickets to scratch later on. Hanley is the consensus number 2 pick, so unless you pick second, you're not getting him. Troy Tulowitzki is next off the board in Round 2, followed by Rollins and Reyes later on in the round. Jeter is going anywhere between the 3rd and 5th and after him it's anyone's game. So be wary, there's going to be some excellent shortstop value later on in the draft, but right now it's very hard to say who it's going to be. The safe play would be to take one of those early guys and not have to worry about it anymore. If you don't, you'll need to hit the jackpot on someone like Asdrubal Cabrera, Yunel Escobar, or Erick Aybar if you want elite production from the position.
Third base stinks this year, and it took me time to figure that out. In my first draft, I went with A-Rod with the third pick and didn't really pay attention to what was happening at the position. In the second draft, I went without a third-bagger until the 12th, when I picked up Chipper Jones -- which didn't exactly produce a feeling of euphoria, followed by a listen of Kool and the Gang's Celebration. After A-Rod, Miggy Cabrera, and David Wright, things start getting dicey. I like Ryan Zimmerman, but I really feel like the second round is too high. Mark Reynolds is going way too high -- what are the chances he can replicate his astonishing 2009? Sandoval is a nice player, but I wouldn't call him elite. The lack of depth is pushing Gordon Beckham up into the 6th round and making people believe in Aramis Ramirez again. 3B is really a crapshoot after the first three guys, so waiting until the 6th-8th and taking the bottom end of the 2nd-tier guys (Young, Figgins, Stewart) may be your best value.
Catching is pretty simple. If you don't get Mauer, Martinez, or McCann just wait for the second tier of catchers to go from Rounds 10-15 and grab one there. I like Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, or Ryan Doumit in those rounds.
There will always be value at a position so deep, so I would recommend getting three top-15 outfielders in the first ten rounds, if you can that is, and you'll be set.
I don't believe these drafts are indicative of what will happen in non-expert leagues when it comes to pitching. Pitching was down-played to the extreme in both drafts. But, that doesn't mean you shouldn't follow this strategy. Don't waste your high picks on pitching, there's really no need for it. I always like to grab an ace or two from Rounds 5-8 and then mix and match later down the line. Pitching is always available -- both now and during the season. If you can't find a stud pitcher on the waiver wire as the season progresses, you're just not paying attention.
CATEGORICAL TRENDS
I tend to overlook these players at the start of the draft and then focus on this type of player from Rounds 15 on. Speed will always be there -- maybe not elite speed, but some. I was able to grab Nyjer Morgan in the 9th round in one league, and he didn't go until the end of the 12th in the other. Somewhere in between is where you'll be able to get him. He's the prototype of an elite speed guy. With Morgan on your squad, you should need only a handful of steals on top of his to compete for the category.
Julio Borbon is trending up due to his massive speed potential as well, but he can still be had quite cheap -- Round 16 in one and 13 in the other. He's a threat to swipe 50 bags when all is said and done. Don't worry if you miss on Borbon, you can always take speedster Rajai Davis in the 16th. Don't pay too much for speed unless it is complimented by a another category, preferably power.
20/20, 30/30 guys are the key to fantasy teams. It's the reason Matt Kemp is a first-round pick this year. It's the reason everyone loved Soriano all those years and why Barry Bonds was one of the best fantasy players ever. These guys tend to go pretty early, so you must jump on them accordingly. I was able to nab Grady Sizemore in one draft and Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton in the other, but I had to pay for them. There are some guys in the middle rounds that could fill this role. Adam Jones is one, and Carlos Gonzalez is another, but there are so few of these players... and all sure bets will be gone by round three.
Power can be cheap if you look in the right place. At the end of both drafts, there were 20+ HR potential still available. Guys like Ryan Ludwick, Josh Wilingham, Magglio Ordonez, Mark DeRosa, Adam LaRoche, and Vernon Wells -- they'll all be available and will boost your power numbers.
Saves are easy to come by. If you're someone who doesn't play the waiver wire all season long, I suggest you bite the bullet and get yourself two top-10 closers. If you do plan on paying attention, you can wait until he end to grab some. By May, there will be at least five new closers than there were at start the year. Some will be good, some will be bad, but as long as they pick up some saves, who cares.
YOUTH/ROOKIES
In expert drafts, youth and rookies tend to actually be overvalued because everyone wants to appear smart and ahead of the curve on young talent. Drafters also know that they're probably not the only ones who like a certain player, so they end up taking him far earlier than he should go, just to get him. This year, players like Gordon Beckham, Billy Butler, Shin-Soo Choo, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Hanson and Carlos Gonzalez (who I overpaid for in both drafts) will all go lower than they did in these drafts. They comprise the burgeoning talent pool that we all want to say we knew about first, or at least believed in first. I like all these guys, and in a league that doesn't have 12 guys who do this for a "living", you'll get a better price on them.
INJURY RISKS
Josh Hamilton is going far too high with the injury history he's had. Generally, when you're drafting, don't let one injury plagued year turn you off off of someone. It's the guys who live on the DL that you want to avoid. Hamilton is one of those guys. Alfonso Soriano is another. If you love the often-injured, high upside guys, wait until the end of the draft so they don't kill you. I was able to grab Rich Harden in the 18th round in one draft. That's an acceptable amount of risk for someone who can finish as a top-10 pitcher, but odds are he'll likely spend a chunk of the year in my DL spot.
Another year removed from Tommy John surgery, and Francisco Lirano is worth a flier. He made some enemies last season (including myself) because of the 6th-8th round pick needed to get him. When he turned out to be horendous, he garnered instant hatred from all his owners. This season, he's going between rounds 19-25. If he's awful, just drop him, no skin off your back, But there's always the chance that he can recapture some of his magic and make you look like a genius.
CONCLUSION
When planning for the draft, try to address position scarcity with players that contribute across all categories. Once that's accomplished, use the later rounds to fill up on pitching and categorical specialists. This way you can bring a safe balance to the team and then beef up those stats later one -- one category at a time.
MY ROSTERS
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