Below, we explore what should happen in this week's NFL games. Of course, in the NFL, only half of what should happen actually does happen, but playing the percentages gives you the best chance of winning. Remember, think twice before benching a stud based on match-ups! We list the Vegas odds spread in parentheses and the Over/Under number in brackets.

Ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.

SATURDAY NIGHT (8:00pm ET)

Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-6) [44]

People sure seem to love Baltimore this week. I don't get that at all. A pasting of a banged-up Patriots team proves nothing. The Ravens are 0-7 against Manning and the Colts over the last decade or so, and I have no doubt that streak gets extended to 0-8 this Saturday. Unlike New England, the Colts have a bevy of options to choose from on offense. The one thing the Ravens really excel at, stopping the run, won't come into play, because Indy never runs. Manning will get the isolated match-ups he wants and expose a secondary that was playing over their heads last week.

So, what do the Ravens need to do to pull off the upset? First off, they need to get pressure Manning. Sacks would be nice, but even some disruption of the pocket or clogging passing lanes will suffice. The majority of Batimore's points last week came off turn overs. Don't expect Peyton and company to cough up the ball like a beat-up Brady if he has all day to stand in the pocket. Secondly, keep Manning off the field. The Ravens key strength comes in the form of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. If the Ravens can control the clock with the run, they may be able to keep it close enough to have a chance at the end.

While I concede the game will probably be close, I think you're crazy to bet on a team that consistently loses close games. Especially against a team with the MVP, that always finds ways to win close games, and has beaten them seven straight times. Take Manning and the Colts to cruise to the AFC Championship. 

IND 32, BAL 23 (Pick: Indianapolis -6, over 44) 

Again, ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.