Below, we explore what should happen in this week's NFL games. Of course, in the NFL, only half of what should happen actually does happen, but playing the percentages gives you the best chance of winning. Remember, think twice before benching a stud based on match-ups! We list the Vegas odds spread in parentheses and the Over/Under number in brackets.

Ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON (4:30pm ET)

New York Jets @ Cincinnati (-2.5) [34]

Erase Week 17 from your minds -- that's going to be the theme of Wild Card weekend. Basically everything that could have gone wrong for Cincinnati last week, did. The Bengals played the worst game possible. The Jets, on the other hand, played their best game possible. Expect both teams to converge somewhere closer to the middle this week. This 2.5 point line tells me that there are a lot of people putting money on the Jets right now, and that won't change. The line is going to continue to drop until it's practically a pick'em. People just can't get last week out of their heads. What's so different about this week's game? A profusion of situations.

The absolute most important difference is that it's now the playoffs, where rookie quarterbacks go to die. Many will point to the success of a rookie Joe Flacco in last year's tournament. Although the 2009 Jets are constructed much like the 2008 Ravens, Flacco is not the standard. He is an aberration. Mike Zimmer and his defense held back Sunday night. This week, the Bengals are going to stack the line and do whatever take to shut down the Jets #1 ranked run offense. If Thomas Jones starts running through seven men, bring eight. If eight doesn't work, bring nine. Stopping the run is integral to victory. If they are having problems slowing down the run, they'll have to turn to the offense for help. If the Bengals can jump out to an early lead, they will force the Jets to eventually abandon their potent running attack. Either way, the outcome is the same -- make Mark Sanchez beat you, because he won't. He'll start making bad decisions, which will inevitably lead to Cincy points.

This week, we get the return of Cedric Benson to the lineup. Imagine if anyone had said this two years ago in this type of positive connotation. People would have have introduced you to a padded room and one of those styling cross armed jackets. But now, Benson is the key cog that makes Cincy's offense go. They are a ball control, run-first team now, and the lack of Benson was on display against the Jets last week. As entertaining as it is to hear anything about Larry Johnson, he's actually quite terrible. His abilities have decayed at the same rate as Shaun Alexander's, and his cuts look like they were stolen from a game of electronic football (although he may not be that fast). With Benson back, it will force the Jets to commit to stopping him, leaving room Palmer to operate. 

The Jets will embody a very similar game plan if they're to come out with a road win, but the odds will be stacked against them. Thomas Jones will be the key to a Jets victory. If he can run effectively and prolong Jets' drives, New York will win in a walk. But, expect both defenses to be up to the task, leaving the fate of the game in the hands of Sanchez and Palmer. In the battle of former USC signal callers, I'll take the one with the experience and cold weather acclimation.

CIN 13, NYJ 10 (Pick: Cincinnati -2.5, under 34) 

Again, ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.