Below, we explore what should happen in this week's NFL games. Of course, in the NFL, only half of what should happen actually does happen, but playing the percentages gives you the best chance of winning. Remember, think twice before benching a stud based on match-ups! We list the Vegas odds spread in parentheses and the Over/Under number in brackets.

Ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.

• Against Spread: 12-4
• Straight Up: 13-3
• Over/Under: 11-4-1

THURSDAY NIGHT

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+3) [41.5]

Manning, Wayne, Clark and company will get another week to strut their stuff. Jacksonville had their five game home wining streak stopped by the upstart Dolphins last week and it looks like they'll build on a that losing streak now. The Colts are better than the Jags in every way and will show it to a "national" audience on the NFL Network. While MJD usually owns the Colts, but he looks to be slowing down in his first season as the feature back. He hasn't eclipsed 100 yards in four straight weeks and gets a Colts team that has tightened the bolts on the run defense. In a short week, take the better team. IND 27, JAC 14 (Pick: Indianapolis -3, over 41.5)

SATURDAY NIGHT

Dallas at New Orleans (-7) [53.5] 

No one hates the Holidays quite like the Cowboys. Is it possible for Dallas to draft some heart or grit in 2010? The Cowboys continue their now hilarious 0-for-December streak and get to travel to into the unfriendly confines of the Superdome. The Saints starters look like they'll get their reps, which can only spell doom for the Cowboys. DeMarcus Ware (neck) is trying his best to play, but it would seem unlikely considering the extent of his injury. Missing your best defensive player in a game against one of the most prolific offenses of all time is not a good thing. This game gets its own night to shine, so expect the Saints to flex their muscles one more time before the playoffs. NO 31, DAL 25 (Pick: Dallas +7, over 53.5) 

SUNDAY EARLY

Arizona at Detroit (+11.5) [46.5]

After watching Detroit get handled by the Ravens so easily last week, expect another blowout. The Cards are coming off a classic letdown at San Francisco and will look to take out some frustrations on the lowly Lions. This will be an excellent forum for Tim Hightower to regain his confidence and Beanie Wells to let his grow. There is no competition here. ARI 38, DET 7 (Pick: Arizona -11.5, over 46.5)

Atlanta at New York Jets (-6) [40]

Chris Redman against the Jets stingy defense? Don' think so. Even if Kellen Clemens gets another start for the Franchez, the Jets should have no problem keeping their playoff hopes alive. Just like last week, expect a lot of Thomas Jones and just like last week, expect it to be highly effective. "The Shadowman" Darrelle Revis will take Roddy White out of this game and a combination of Redman, Gonzalez, Snelling, Norwood and an awful defense will prove to be no match for the Jets at the Meadowlands. NYJ 19, ATL 14 (Atlanta -6, under 40)  

Chicago at Baltimore (-10) [40.5]

In the confusion that is the AFC playoff race, it is the Ravens that have pulled out to a slight lead. Chicago has easily been the year's most disappointing team, and their woes won't be cured with a trip to Baltimore. Ray Rice will treat the Bears' penetrable defense like a 30 dollar hooker -- he'll have his way with them. Chicago's only chance is if the Ravens' bus encounters Baltimore's resident street crazy Omar (or is that Randy Moss?) on the way to the game. The Ravens will win, but 10 is a lot of points to give.  BAL 24, CHI 13 (Pick: Baltimore-10, under 40.5)

Cleveland at Kansas City (-2) [36.5]There is a distinct possibility that there will be more people at this game than actually watching it on TV. The only ones watching will be fantasy players. Cleveland has looked better lately, and Kansas City should be able to move the ball through the air much easier than they did last week against a surprisingly good Bills secondary. Much like the Lions/Browns clash from a few weeks back, expect this game to be abnormally high scoring and close. But once again, the victor will be the home team. KC 28, CLE 25 (Pick: Kansas City -2, over 36.5)

Houston at St. Louis (+10.5) [43]

Thinking about picking St. Louis? Go ahead, throw your pick away. HOU 35, STL 7 (Pick: Houston -10.5, over 43) 

Miami at Tennessee (-3) [42]

Forget Cowboys/Saints -- this is the real game of the week. Vince Young will be in action as the he tries to spoil the Dolphins' playoff hopes. The blossoming of Chad Henne has been greatly overstated. You'll hear analysts talk like he's put this team on his back and gotten them into playoff contention all by himself. He shows flashes of what we can expect down the road, but he's nowhere near that yet. This team is being led by Ricky Williams and the defense right now, and both will have to be at the top of their game if they want leave Nashville still in the playoff race. It's been a nice run, but Miami will have no answer to Chris Johnson, who will continue his torrid match into the record books. TEN 24, MIA 20 (Pick: Tennessee -3, over 42) 

New England at Buffalo (+7.5) [40.5]

Boy does New England need this one. A win this week will basically propel them into the playoffs (they should beat either the Jags or Texans in the next two weeks). They'd better not overlook the Bills though. Yes, the Bills are pretty awful, but they do have some Patriot kryptonite -- Fred Jackson. Jackson has dominated the Pats in the last two meetings and is the only reason the games stayed close. You may remember Week One, when the Bills were one late fumble away from the upset. An upset in this one would be very welcomed, but unlikely. Expect it to come down to the wire, when the Bills will miss a field goal to lose. NE 18, BUF 16 (Pick: Buffalo +7.5, under 40.5)  

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-8.5) [44.5]

Winning Monday night gave the 49ers some playoff hope -- the same hope that translated into a Chargers playoff birth last year. Problem is, the 49ers aren't half as good as the 2008 Chargers, and the Cardinals are twice as good as the 2008 Broncos (plus, Arizona plays Detroit and St. Louis the next two weeks). The Eagles are soaring after that crazy win against the Giants and should take advantage of a West coast team playing in the early Sunday game. Gimme them Eagles. PHI 30, SF 14 (Pick: Philadelphia -8.5, over 44.5)  

SUNDAY LATE

Cincinnati at San Diego (-6.5) [44] 

Sometimes over analysis can be good for picks. But sometimes under analysis is necessary. The Bengals haven't won a game west of the Mississippi this year. That's good enough for me. San Diego will win and basically wrap up the playoff bye. SD 25, CIN 13 (Pick: San Diego -6.5, under 44)  

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-0.5) [40]

How can Pittsburgh be favored in this game? This line just dares you to take the Pack. Green Bay is hot, and the Steelers are coming off a loss to Cleveland. Dare me to make less sense. Let's go Pittsburgh! PIT 20, GB 18 (Pick: Pittsburgh -0.5, under 40)

Oakland at Denver (-13.5) [37]

Denver can get themselves to the brink of the playoffs this week, and they will do just that. As crazy as it sounds, Bruce Gradkowski will actually be missed. He's doubtful for Sunday, and I can't in good conscience put money on the Raiders with JaMarcus back there doing his thing (throwing picks, fumbling, and sweet spin moves).  If Gradkowski does play, I'll take the Raiders against spread, but it doesn't look that's going to happen. DEN 35, OAK 10 (Pick: Denver -13.5, over 37)     

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-7) [40]

Josh Freeman brings new meaning to the NFL pick'em. With nine interceptions in the last two games, Freeman makes Seattle's defense a quality fantasy start. Seattle is one of those slightly above average teams that can still put a beat-down on the dredges of the league. Blowout alert. SEA 28, TB 3 (Pick: Seattle -7, under 40)

SUNDAY NIGHT

Minnesota at Carolina (+7) [42.5]  

Seven Points? Deal. Look for an Adrian Peterson style beat-down in Carolina. It's really too bad that this game couldn't be flexed out of prime-time. MIN 35, CAR 6 (MIN -7, under 42.5)

MONDAY NIGHT

New York Giants at Washington (+3) [42.5] 

Excellent choice for a Monday-Nighter. The Giants can see their season slipping away, and the Redskins are playing for pride and are led by a guy who's playing for a new contract. Washington will relish the chance to knock their hated rivals out of the playoffs, and for some crazy reason, I see it happening. Fred Davis will score again. Count on it. WAS 23, NYG 20 (Pick: Washington +3, over 42.5)

Again, ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.