Below, we explore what should happen in this week's NFL games. Of course, in the NFL, only half of what should happen actually does happen, but playing the percentages gives you the best chance of winning. Remember, think twice before benching a stud based on match-ups! We list the Vegas odds spread in parentheses and the Over/Under number in brackets.

ALERT! We just updated our Strength of Schedule Grid on 11/23 to point out strong and weak schedules for the remainder of the 2009 season, so make sure you download it, print it, and keep it by your side to consult for every decision you make. Personally, I like to take a highlighter and highlight out the column for the current week each Monday as to easier see the remaining good and bad stretches.

Ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING)

Green Bay @ Detroit (+12) [49]

Coming off a thrilling win, Detroit will surely come back to earth on a short week when they host Green Bay. Green Bay’s defense took a hit Sunday when they lost cornerback Al Harris and linebacker Aaron Kampman to knee injuries that will likely end their seasons. This would be great news for Lions expect  quarterback Matthew Stafford will also miss the game with a bum shoulder. This paves the way for Daunte Culpepper to make his second straight Thanksgiving start. Despite the injuries, the Packers should prove to be too much on offense for the Lions to deal with and don’t expect another huge Lion comeback with Culpepper at the helm. GB 34, DET 13 (Pick: Green Bay -12, under)

New York Giants @ Denver (+6.5) [42]

Denver is reeling, losers of four in a row, and things don’t get much better with the Giants coming to town. The Giants got their offense back on track last week against the Falcons and will look to take advantage of Denver defense that is crumbling before our eyes. While the Giants defense has not been overly stellar as of late either, Denver has a beat up quarterback and have been stumbling on offense. Look for the Giants to control the clock through the run game and play just enough defense to post a sizable win. NYG 34, DEN 24 (Pick: New York -6.5, over) 

Oakland @ Dallas (-13.5) [40.5]

What’s the cure for scoring 14 points over the last two games? A visit from the Raiders of course. Look for the Cowboys to get back to their high scoring ways and put a hurtin' on Oakland. Dallas’ defense will bring enough pressure to rattle Bruce Gradkowski and force him into a few turnovers. Oakland doesn’t travel well and should have their hands full shutting down Dallas’ three headed monster at running back. DAL 27, OAK 10 (Pick: Dallas -13.5, under)

SUNDAY EARLY

Carolina at New York Jets (-3) [41.5]

Bad news for the Jets. Carolina may not play the best defense but can definitely put pressure on the quarterback. Mark Sanchez becomes a turnover machine when any pressure is applied to him, so look for the Jets to keep the ball on the ground. Same goes for the Panthers, they’ll want to keep the ball out of Delhomme’s as much as possible. Expect a heavy dose DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Thomas Jones, and even some Shonne Greene. This will be a game of ball control and should be close. Carolina has been playing better lately, so take them. CAR 20, NYJ 17 (Pick: Carolina +3, under)

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-14) [38.5]

Cincinnati will be steaming coming off a horrendous loss at Oakland last week and will look to make the Browns pay for it. It looks like Cedric Benson will miss another week, leaving the running back duties to the trio of Bernard Scott, Brian Lenard, and Larry Johnson. Those three should be able to do the trick against the dreadful Browns. While I fully expect the Bengals to win, division games have a tendency to be closer than they should be. Cleveland will hang in this game as long as they can if Brady Quinn can feed off some of the confidence he gained last week. CIN 27, CLE 14 (Pick: Cleveland +14, over)

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3) [49]

While Houston really needs this game coming off a devastating loss to Tennessee, don’t expect them to beat the Colts who just own them. Indy sports a 14-1 record in this divisional series and always finds a way to win. The Texans should be competitive, as they have one of the league’s most explosive offenses. But without Owen Daniels the Colts should be able to post just enough points to pull this one out. IND 31, HOU 27 (Pick: Indianapolis -3, over)

Miami @ Buffalo (+3) [39.5]

Miami is streaking and the Bills are… well, the Bills. That generally reeks of bad news for them. Miami should be able to hand Ricky the ball and let him pound the Buffalo’s 31st ranked run defense into submission. As long as Chad Henne can stay away from mistakes the dolphins should be fine. Buffalo’s only chance is to stack the box and make the Henne beat them deep. Unfortunately, that they attempt this strategy ever week and it rarely pays off. Miami should get up early and keep a comfortable distance between them all game. MIA 24, BUF 14, (Pick: Miami +3, under)

Seattle @ St. Louis (+3) [42.5]

Marc Bulger will miss the next 3-6 weeks, which means the return of Kyle Boller. I like Seattle more and more by the second.  Justin Forsett should get his ground game back after a brutal 9 yards last week, which will set up some effective play action for Matt Hasselbeck and friends. Seattle has too much offense and just enough defense to put this game out of reach. SEA 31, STL 13 (Pick: Seattle -3, over)

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-12) [46]

A few weeks ago it looked like Atlanta was on store for their first back to back winning seasons in franchise history. Now, they sit at 5-5 and desperately need a win against a Bucs that have been more competitive lately.  Expect Tampa to be able to move the ball against the Falcons who rank 28th in total defense but don’t count on them keeping Atlanta off the board. Matt Ryan should be able to take advantage of the Bucs poor secondary and give Tampa just enough Jason Snelling to keep them honest. Atlanta will control the game but it will end up closer than expected. ATL 23, TB 17 (Pick: Tampa Bay +12, under) 

Washington @ Philadelphia (-9) [42]

Washington kept it close against Dallas last week but let’s be serious, they’re pretty terrible.  Rock Cartwright gets the start in place of Betts, who was replacing Portis. The Rock should have a better fantasy week than actual week has he should get involved in the passing game after the ‘Skins realize they can’t run and are down by 14. Philly’s problem has been keeping their momentum going throughout the game. They have a real problem of disappearing on offense a few drives at a time. The Eagles should jump out to an early lead and take the foot off the pedal, letting Washington linger around. Washington’s ineptitude on offense will rear its ugly head late in this game an ultimately prove to be their undoing.  PHI 27, WAS 20 (Pick: Washington +9, over)

SUNDAY LATE

Arizona @ Tennessee (-1) [46.5]

The outcome of this game rests in the hands of the Cardinals medical staff. If they give Kurt Warner the green light to play the Cards should win handily. If we get a cameo from Matt Leinhart, they’re in serious trouble. The Titans are winners of four in a row after an 0-6 start and have been playing good ball with Vince Young at quarterback. Arizona will load up the box to stop the leagues best running back Chris Johnson and force Young to beat them through the air. I’m betting on Warner playing, so I’ll take the Cards. ARZ 31, TEN 24, [Pick: Arizona +1, over)

Chicago @ Minnesota (-11) [47]

The Vikings will keep they hot streak going this week against the Bears. They’ll definitely get enough pressure on Jay Cutler to force at least two picks. The Bears defense is a shell of their former selves and will be easy pickings for Adrain Peterson and Brett Favre. Minnesota should have no problem putting up points to the point where we may get another Tavaris Jackson sighting in garbage time. MIN 38, CHI 13 (Pick: Minnesota -11, over)

Jacksonville @ San Francisco (-3) [41.5]

Somehow Jacksonville has played themselves into the 5th seed in the AFC and they continue to win on the last drive. Both defenses have been have quite formidable so this should be a low scoring, close game. Last time Jacksonville traveled to the west coast was week five when they lost 41-0 to Seattle. The jags have improved since then and should learn from their previous western mistakes to take it to the 49ers. Both teams will really on their superstar running to control the clock and it will come down to whichever team can force the most turnovers. I like Jacksonville to continue their recent trend and win this one late. JAX 17, SF 14 (Pick: Jacksonville +3, under)

Kansas City @ San Diego (-13.5) [45]

San Diego has recovered form their dreadful start and have propelled themselves to the top of the of the AFC West. Kansas City is coming off a stunning overtime win over the Steelers last week and a due for a letdown. The Super Chargers should be able to do what they want offensively which may lead to a scoreboard overload by the third quarter. The Chiefs will put up a respectable amount of points against a porous Chargers defense but not close to enough. SD 38, KC 24 (Pick: San Diego -13.5, over)

SUNDAY NIGHT

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-2.5) [off]

If Big Ben misses this game with his concussion, the Steelers are in trouble. Back up Charlie Batch got himself a season ending wirst injury in his 30 seconds of play last week so God knows who is the signal called if Roethlisberger is out. He said today that he’ll play but I remain skeptical about it. The Ravens should unleash Ray Rice on the Steelers and reap the rewards. With Polumalu out another week, Flacco should be able to get his receivers involved enough to take the pressure off the running game. Either way this should be a defensive struggle that ends up within a field goal.  BAL 17, PIT 14 (Pick: Baltimore -2.5, under)

MONDAY NIGHT

New England @ New Orleans (-3) [56]

Shoot-out alert. Two high octane offense clash in the Bayou in a game that should just be a delight to watch. This is by far the Saints toughest game to date and it will show. The Pats have enough experience in big games to pull this one out at the end and deliver new Orleans their first loss. For fantasy purposes get as many Saints and Pats in your line up as possible. NE 45, NO 41 (Pick: New England +3, over)

Again, ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.