Below, we explore what should happen in this week's NFL games. Of course, in the NFL, only half of what should happen actually does happen, but playing the percentages gives you the best chance of winning. Remember, think twice before benching a stud based on match-ups! We list the Vegas odds spread in parentheses and the Over/Under number in brackets.

ALERT! We just updated our Strength of Schedule Grid on 11/30 to point out strong and weak schedules for the remainder of the 2009 season, so make sure you download it, print it, and keep it by your side to consult for every decision you make. Personally, I like to take a highlighter and highlight out the column for the current week each Monday as to easier see the remaining good and bad stretches.

Ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.

Last Week:

• Against Spread: 10-6
• Straight Up: 10-6
• Over/Under: 10-6

THURSDAY NIGHT

New York Jets @ Buffalo (In Toronto) (+3) [37]

The NFL, CANADIAN STYLE!!! Traveling north of the border didn't work out to well for the Bills last season when they dropped a game against the Dolphins. It's hard to figure out the reason behind playing December games in Toronto. Buffalo is one of the few cities in the NFL that has a real advantage playing outdoors in the cold. It's really poor timing, because the climate controlled elements of the Rogers' Centre play into the hands of Mark Sanchez and the Jets. When the Franchez has really struggled this year, it's been outdoors. Saying that, it's been weeks since the Jets have played indoors, and it could all be a moot point because Sanchez could possibly just be really bad. Sanchez' season really hit the skids when the threw five picks last time out against the Bills, and his recent play suggests that we'll see more of the same in this game. Couple that with the Bills ball hawking secondary, and you have an upset brewing. The Bills have looked better since the era of Coach Sewell commenced. Sewell, who one writer (me!) has dubbed "A Young Mike Singletary" (generally to huge laughs), may not be responsible for the Bills latest resurgence. And yes, a 1-1 record qualifies as a resurgence when talking about the Bills. No, it's been the return of Fred Jackson that has really sparked the offense. Jackson has been great when given the chance to start this year, and his production mixed with the success that new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has had makes it seem like the Bills can actually move the ball. This game will be close (Fun Fact: close games = the nemesis of the Bills), but Buffalo should be able to parlay the Jets' turnovers into enough points to prevail. BUF 23, NYJ 17 (Pick: Buffalo +3, over)

SUNDAY EARLY

Detroit @ Cincinnati (-13) [42]

Playing on Thanksgiving does have its benefits. The 10 day break should have allowed Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson plenty of time to heal. The extended break didn't help out rookie tight end Brandon Pettigrew, as he's out for the season with a knee injury. But a clean bill of health for the two stars won't be enough to get the Lions a win in Cincy. After dominating the Browns on the stat sheet last week, the Bengals are going to want to show they can still put up points with the best of them. Expect the return of Cedric Benson this week and a return to the end zone for Ochocinco. The beast that is Ochocinco has been tamed in recent weeks, and that is just not acceptable. The NFL is infinitely more watchable when the former Chad Johnson is scoring touchdowns, so at least do it for the fans. I've seen Ocho out-run a horse; surely he can out-run members of the Lions alarmingly appalling secondary. (Fun Fact: in the interview, he creates the idea for "Shaq vs." but with himself in the Shaq role, of course) It's a great match up for all Bengals, and the scoreboard should tell the story. CIN 31, DET 10 (Pick: CIN -13, under)

Denver @ Kansas City (-4.5) [38]

The Chiefs came back to earth last week getting demolished at San Diego. This week they travel back to Arrowhead and face a Broncos team coming off a huge win against the Giants. Ten days of basking in the glory of that win may be too long, as this sets up for a classic let-down game. Denver does not boast the same type of offense that San Diego does and will be in a fight to the finish. Jamaal Charles and Chris Chambers give the Chiefs enough offense to pull off the upset. KC 20, DEN 17 (Pick: Kansas City +4.5, under)

Houston @ Jacksonville (PK) [46.5]

If either of these teams hold out any hope of being playoff-bound, they must treat it as a playoff game. Jacksonville continues to be the Jekyll and Hyde team of 2009 but do tend to play better at home. In their last match-up, Maurice Jones-Drew ran wild but the Texans run defense as improved since their last meeting and should be able to contain him enough to win. Houston should be hungrier and unleash Andre Johnson all over the Jags. That's a winning formula. HOU 31, JAC 24 (Pick: Houston PK, over)

New England @ Miami (-6.5) [47]

New England is going to take their Monday night loss out on the Dolphins. Count on it. After being embarrassed by the Saints, the Pats will be more determined than ever to blow someone out and show the league they're still in the upper echelon of the NFL. Bad news for Miami. Ricky Williams looked mortal last week, and Chad Henne isn't beating anyone. New England should have this wrapped up by the third quarter. NE 31, MIA 13 (Pick: New England -6.5, under) 

New Orleans @ Washington (-9.5) [48] 

The Saints will march their way right through the capitol and make quick work of the Redskins. The Saints defense was up to the task of shutting down the prolific Pats offense. They should have no problems with Washington. They are definitely offenses on a different level. Think Ryan Fitzpatrick versus Michael Oher in a "read off". The Saints should score multiple long touchdowns and put this game out of reach pretty quickly and enjoy their hard-earned 12-0 record. NO 35, WAS 14 (Pick: New Orleans -9.5. over) 

Oakland @ Pittsburgh (-13) [off]

What's there really to say about this one? Oakland doesn't travel well at all. Apparently they always forget to pack their talent. That or it was stolen from McAfee Coliseum -- I mean it is Oakland. Although the getaway car would probably have whistle tips. The Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back and he should be ready to get Pittsburgh back on track after two straight losses. The Steelers always shut down the run and that's the one thing the Raiders do even respectably well. It's going to be a long day in the in the Steel City for the Silver and Black. PIT 24, OAK 3 (Pittsburgh -13, over)  

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (+6) [43.5]

Matt Ryan (toe) is out, and Michael Turner (ankle) will probably join him on the sidelines. That means Chris Redman and Jerlious Norwood will be handed the duty of keeping the Falcons in the playoff hunt. The Eagles aren't without their own injury woes. DeSean Jackson is unlikely to play with the recent trend in concussion precaution, and break-out tight end Brent Celek is now dealing with torn ligaments in his thumb. I have confidence in the Eagles back-ups and defense over Atlanta's, so expect Philly to triumph against the Dirty Birds. On a side note, how is nobody talking about the return of Michael Vick to Atlanta? PHI 28, ATL 20 (Pick: Philadelphia -6, over).     

St. Louis @ Chicago (-8.5) [41]

Cutler finally gets a weak secondary to pick on and he should take full advantage. At worst, he'll throw as many TDs as picks, and that will still should produce points . Kyle Boller looked shaky last week, and we'll get more of the same this week. Look for the Bears' skill players to take advantage of this match-up and get some much needed confidence back. CHI 20, STL 14 (St. Louis +8.5, under)   

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6.5) [42]

The Panthers were all but knocked out of playoff contention last week with their loss in New York and should bring some of that bad momentum back to Carolina with them. Tampa has been playing much better since the inception of the Josh Freeman Experience, and this is a nice week for them to collect their second win. Jake Delhomme is questionable with a hand injury, and despite all his flaws, he's still the starter. The guys behind him must really be bad. This game should come down to the wire and end with the young Bucs celebrating all over Bank of America Stadium. TB 17, CAR 13 (Pick: Tampa Bay +6.5, under)

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-7) [47]

The Colts' banality in winning will eventually catch up to them this week, as they'll have their hands full with surging Titans. I'm a believer in these Vince Young-led Titans and am predicting they ruin the perfect season in Indy. Fate seems to be carrying Tennessee at this point, and there's no reason to believe it stops here. TEN 24, IND 21 (Pick: Tennessee +7, under)

SUNDAY LATE

Dallas @ New York Giants (PK) [45.5]

Eli Manning is dealing with injuries and the Giants defense isn't what it once was. Dallas is coming off a nice win where their offense got its bearings back and could go a long way in cementing a playoff spot with a win this week. Now by NFL logic that means the Giants will somehow win by 30 but I'll stick to my guns and take Dallas in a hard fought battle. They're ability to pressure the quarterback should disrupt the Giants offensive flow much like Denver did to them last week. Who you got? That's right, Dallas Cowboys! DAL 27, NYG 20 (Pick: Dallas PK, over) 

San Diego @ Cleveland (-12) [43]

I remember the last time that San Diego visited Cleveland. I was in Newfoundland visiting my grandmother and was forced to watch the game on a rustic tv that was at her nursing home. Now, turning off "Matlock" was no easy task. I had to bribe my grandma with a serving of lemon mush and a side of strained carrots  to get the game on. I was surprised to see it was a snowy day in Cleveland and it spelled doom for all offensive players. The game's only major play was an 85 yard touchdown pass from Drew Brees to Antonio Gates where he turned a 5 yard slant into a huge catch and run. How did the velocity impaired Gates out run everyone? Well about five Browns defenders slipped in the snow in an amusing slow motion pursuit. I'm pretty sure the game ended up 10-3. I had to turn the game off in the 4th quarter because of the distraction it was causing to the intense cribbage game in the room. That and "Wheel of Fortune" was about to start. What's the point of the story, beyond the fact that I like stories? Unless there's another snow storm in Cleveland, the Chargers are going to run up the score. SD 33, CLE 6 (Pick: San Diego -12, under) 

San Francisco @ Seattle ( PK) [41]

A win this week could vault San Fran right into the cloudy NFC playoff picture. The sapphic sourdoughs (their name in a more alliterative world) should have no problem as Seattle's play has not been up to par recently. They're losers of four of six and have only beaten the Rams and Lions over that stretch. Don't put too much faith in them taking down a quality opponent. SF 24, SEA 13 (Pick: San Francisco PK, under) 

SUNDAY NIGHT

Minnesota @ Arizona (-3) [off]

This game was flexed into prime-time for a reason: it should be a doozy. If Kurt Warner plays that it. If Warner plays, the Cards have a significantly better chance of keep up in scoring parade. Regardless of who starts I envision the Vikings leaving the desert with a win. The Cards will spend so much time worrying about Adrian Peterson that they'll let Favre have his way with the secondary. The bright lights of prime-time have shown brightly on Favre this season, why should it stop now? MIN 35, ARZ 20 (Pick: MIN -3, over)

MONDAY NIGHT

Baltimore @ Green Bay (+3) [44]

Green Bay has played tough this year but they're in line to get an over serving of Rice this week. "Everyone loves" Ray Rice in this game. He'll run past the members of Packers' beat up defense from the opening snap. I'm convinced a middle of the road AFC team wipes the floor with their NFC doppelganger every day of the week. Expect a game like the Cincinati/Green Bay game from week 2: higher scoring than expected with the AFC team walking out the victor. BAL 34, GB 31(Pick: Balitmore +3, over)

Again, ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.