2009 Fantasy Basketball 10/23 AHC Expert League Auction Analysis
Posted by: DaveGawron
on Oct 23, 2009
2009-2010 is Year One of the new experts league, the Auction Hoops Challenge (AHC). Here are our team reps for the current season:
- BOS RotoCommunity.com (Dave Gawron)
- ATL Rotoworld.com (Steve Alexander)
- DC Regular Guy (John Sullivan)
- DET ESPN.com (Tom Carpenter)
- GS BarkleysMouth.com (Matt Satten)
- MEM Fanball.com (Cory Elfrink)
- MIA OpenSports.com (David Gonos)
- NJ Freelance.com (Hector Castro)
- NY FantasyPros911.com (Lenny Melnick)
- PHI HoopsKlyce.com (David Klyce)
Player position eligibility is provided by the ESPN League Commissioner. It's a basic NON-h2h 8-cat league (FG%, FT%, 3s, Rb, Ast, St, Bk, Pts). We used the default ESPN line-up/roster configuration (C-F-PF-SF-G-SG-PG-3FLEX) and 3 reserves. We selected NBA cities to represent, most near where we love, otherwise favorite NBA teams. I have to say that I really liked the ESPN auction room. The only problem was that Klyce couldn't bid at one point near the end of the draft. Other than that, it was top-notch. Here's how the auction went down team-by-team, with a brief analysis of each team included for your benefit.The number on the left is when they were nominated. The right is obviously theirwinning bid value.
BOS RotoCommunity.com (Dave Gawron)
| 5 | Rajon Rondo, Bos PG | $28 |
| 23 | Gilbert Arenas, Was PG | $19 |
| 29 | Al Jefferson, Min C | $33 |
| 39 | Gerald Wallace, Cha SF | $22 |
| 48 | Monta Ellis, GS PG | $18 |
| 51 | Anthony Randolph, GS PF | $7 |
| 53 | Nene, Den C | $6 |
| 55 | LaMarcus Aldridge, Por PF | $12 |
| 58 | Vince Carter, Orl SG | $13 |
| 68 | Stephen Jackson, GS SG | $6 |
| 81 | Michael Beasley, Mia PF | $4 |
| 92 | Hedo Turkoglu, Tor SF | $4 |
| 93 | Manu Ginobili*, SA SG | $5 |
I wanted to let most of the big players go so I could get a couple of second-rounders and then load up on third-to-sixth rounders. It worked pretty well, but my one mistake was leaving $23 on the table. Things moved fairly quickly, and before I knew it, DET and I were the only ones with money left. Starting from the beginning, I wanted a solid base of point guards. I quickly took care of that with Rondo and Arenas. Then I wanted a big man, and Jefferson fit the bill. I wanted an across-the-board player next, and Wallace was my choice. Monta looked like a good price to me, so he completed my backcourt. I then couldn't let the rebounds and blocks from Randolph and Nene slip by, so I grabbed them cheaply. Then it was obvious we had reached the part of the draft where players are undervalued. Aldridge and Carter were steals. That's where I made my mistake. I could have bought a couple more players in the teens there, but I let them go. I decided I needed threes, and got them from pretty well-rounded players in S-Jax, Turk, and Gino. Beasley gives me another upside forward to pair with Randolph on my bench to use in four-game weeks. Overall, I'm happy, as my worst players were ranked 63, 64, 67, and 76. Everybody else was in my Top 55, and I think I balanced out the team well over all eight categories. You can't complain about that.
ATL Rotoworld.com (Steve Alexander)
| 1 | Dwyane Wade, Mia SG | $63 |
| 3 | LeBron James, Cle SF | $82 |
| 34 | Rashard Lewis*, Orl SF | $15 |
| 35 | Greg Oden, Por C | $12 |
| 47 | Jameer Nelson, Orl PG | $15 |
| 67 | Raymond Felton, Cha PG | $3 |
| 90 | Boris Diaw, Cha PF | $2 |
| 100 | Mike Conley, Mem PG | $1 |
| 106 | Trevor Ariza, Hou SF | $3 |
| 108 | Shane Battier, Hou SF | $1 |
| 116 | Chris Kaman, LAC C | $1 |
| 123 | Samuel Dalembert, Phi C | $1 |
| 128 | Joakim Noah, Chi C | $1 |
Wade was the first bid of the night, and I felt that he went at a reasonable price. $82 wasn't terrible for LeBron, either, as it turns out. After three nice, mid-priced players, Steve filled out his balanced team nicely with cheap PGs (Felton & Conley), glue guys (Diaw, Ariza, and Battier), and big men (Kaman, Dalembert, and Noah).
DC Regular Guy (John Sullivan)
| 16 | Danny Granger, Ind SF | $69 |
| 20 | Tony Parker, SA PG | $12 |
| 25 | Blake Griffin, LAC PF | $14 |
| 30 | J.R. Smith, Den SG | $8 |
| 33 | Troy Murphy, Ind PF | $22 |
| 37 | Ben Gordon, Det SG | $12 |
| 40 | Caron Butler, Was SF | $20 |
| 49 | Baron Davis, LAC PG | $11 |
| 50 | Andrea Bargnani, Tor PF | $16 |
| 60 | Al Horford, Atl C | $10 |
| 71 | Charlie Villanueva, Det PF | $4 |
| 115 | Andres Nocioni, Sac SF | $1 |
| 122 | Rodney Stuckey, Det PG | $1 |
John is our one non-writer in the draft, but he has 20 years of experience with fantasy basketball auctions. His team probably looks more like I was thinking mine would. Granger should be an absolute stud this season. John spent his next nine picks shrewdly plucking solid values. I worry a bit about his team's field goal percentage and maybe his blocks, but it looks like a solid team.
DET ESPN.com (Tom Carpenter)
| 7 | Jose Calderon, Tor PG | $30 |
| 9 | Amare Stoudemire, Pho C | $52 |
| 28 | Devin Harris, NJ PG | $22 |
| 41 | Josh Smith, Atl PF | $15 |
| 69 | John Salmons, Chi SG | $8 |
| 73 | Rudy Gay, Mem SF | $19 |
| 75 | Tyrus Thomas, Chi PF | $14 |
| 82 | Michael Redd, Mil SG | $5 |
| 83 | Jason Richardson, Pho SG | $15 |
| 84 | Ron Artest, LAL SF | $4 |
| 86 | Andrew Bogut, Mil C | $2 |
| 88 | Jason Thompson, Sac PF | $6 |
| 91 | Spencer Hawes, Sac C | $4 |
Tom did a good job of taking what came to him early and then controlling the middle of the draft through Richardson. That was me bidding with him on Gay, Tyrus, and Richardson. I should have gone to $20 on Gay and $15 on Thomas. Thompson and Hawes are great late. The only thing I'd worry about here is field goal percentage and perhaps scoring, but it looks like a really good team.
GS BarkleysMouth.com (Matt Satten)
| 2 | Chris Paul, Nor PG | $94 |
| 38 | Russell Westbrook, OKC PG | $20 |
| 44 | Brook Lopez, NJ C | $23 |
| 52 | David Lee, NY PF | $16 |
| 54 | Andris Biedrins, GS C | $8 |
| 59 | Andrew Bynum, LAL C | $16 |
| 87 | Mike Bibby, Atl PG | $1 |
| 89 | Jason Terry, Dal SG | $6 |
| 103 | Thaddeus Young, Phi SF | $2 |
| 104 | Tyreke Evans, Sac PG | $1 |
| 110 | Paul Millsap, Uta PF | $2 |
| 112 | Leandro Barbosa, Pho SG | $3 |
| 120 | Chris Andersen, Den C | $5 |
Even with nearly half his budget spent on Paul, Matt still was able to load up on point guards and big men for his first seven picks before focusing on threes (Terry & Barbosa), steals (Young), and blocks (Andersen) late. Nice team.
MEM Fanball.com (Cory Elfrink)
| 11 | Dwight Howard, Orl C | $45 |
| 17 | Deron Williams, Uta PG | $51 |
| 24 | Paul Pierce, Bos SF | $28 |
| 26 | Pau Gasol*, LAL PF | $36 |
| 61 | Mehmet Okur, Uta C | $6 |
| 70 | Al Harrington, NY PF | $13 |
| 80 | Mario Chalmers, Mia PG | $2 |
| 96 | D.J. Augustin, Cha PG | $4 |
| 97 | Jeff Green, OKC SF | $4 |
| 98 | Nate Robinson, NY PG | $1 |
| 99 | Wilson Chandler, NY SF | $6 |
| 114 | Anthony Morrow, GS SG | $1 |
| 118 | Aaron Brooks, Hou PG | $2 |
I wish I had figured this out before the auction, but this is the PERFECT format in which to take Howard. He comes cheaper than other studs because of our negative perception of him due to his FT%. However, the league is shallow, so there will be plenty of chances to make up for it. Also, ANY player is available to you in an auction as long as you're willing to spend. I know now that THE strategy for an auction like this is to get Howard at a reasonable price, and have a list of high-volume, high FT% players to pair him with, taking two from the list to normalize his FT%. Howard really anchors the rebounds and blocks categories, but still, Cory didn't do much to support them, taking "softies" Okur and Harrington and then a bunch of guards and SFs. Still, the cheap players are good ones and Cory is in a good position to trade for needs. I love the Green pick, but I just didn't have the roster spot for him at that point and needed the threes from Turkoglu and Ginobili more.
MIA OpenSports.com (David Gonos)
| 10 | Dirk Nowitzki, Dal PF | $56 |
| 12 | Steve Nash, Pho PG | $40 |
| 15 | Joe Johnson, Atl SG | $35 |
| 22 | Kevin Garnett, Bos PF | $25 |
| 27 | Carlos Boozer, Uta PF | $13 |
| 46 | Elton Brand, Phi PF | $20 |
| 95 | Shaquille O'Neal, Cle C | $1 |
| 105 | Lou Williams, Phi PG | $2 |
| 107 | Stephen Curry, GS PG | $2 |
| 111 | Tayshaun Prince, Det SF | $1 |
| 119 | Richard Hamilton, Det SG | $1 |
| 125 | Corey Brewer, Min SF | $2 |
| 126 | Al Thornton, LAC SF | $1 |
That's certainly a solid first three players taken, but Garnett has his knee, Boozer has his odd "limbo" situation (to which team will he be traded), and Brand hasn't yet proven exactly how he fits in the Sixers system. Shaq could really be babied by the Cavs to preserve him for the playoffs, and Prince could lose minutes with Villanueva and Gordon. It's not a bad team, but with all the question marks here, there are certainly stronger teams in the league. Gonos did appear to give us an excuse though... something about a fun day on the golf course and much drinking and merriment, so we'll give him a pass on this one.
NJ Freelance.com (Hector Castro)
| 4 | Kobe Bryant, LAL SG | $62 |
| 8 | O.J. Mayo, Mem SG | $25 |
| 18 | Andre Miller, Por PG | $5 |
| 19 | David West, Nor PF | $38 |
| 21 | Jason Kidd, Dal PG | $24 |
| 32 | Andre Iguodala, Phi SG | $26 |
| 45 | Chris Douglas-Roberts, NJ SG | $1 |
| 62 | Antawn Jamison*, Was PF | $7 |
| 65 | Kevin Love*, Min PF | $6 |
| 85 | Jermaine O'Neal, Mia C | $1 |
| 94 | Andrei Kirilenko, Uta SF | $1 |
| 102 | Roy Hibbert, Ind C | $3 |
| 130 | Luol Deng, Chi SF | $1 |
Hector made the mistake of the draft by taking Mayo for $25. It's not an awful price, but he jumped the bidding from $2 to $25. As only the eighth nomination, there was still plenty of time left. Never jump the bid by $20 unless it's a super-stud like LeBron or Paul. Taking CDR for $1 with the #45 nomination was also a mistake. In a shallow league, there's no need to fill one of your slots that could possibly be used for a bargain at the end of the draft. Doubling up on the injured Jamison and Love also probably wasn't the best move. Hec redeemed himself a bit by getting good bargains with his last three picks, but I'm afraid it was too little, too late.
NY FantasyPros911.com (Lenny Melnick)
| 6 | Kevin Durant, OKC SG | $68 |
| 13 | Chauncey Billups, Den PG | $38 |
| 14 | Chris Bosh, Tor PF | $48 |
| 63 | Ray Allen, Bos SG | $10 |
| 66 | T.J. Ford, Ind PG | $6 |
| 72 | Marcus Camby, LAC C | $6 |
| 74 | Allen Iverson*, Mem SG | $3 |
| 76 | Shawn Marion, Dal SF | $10 |
| 77 | Luis Scola, Hou PF | $4 |
| 79 | Zach Randolph, Mem PF | $4 |
| 113 | Richard Jefferson, SA SF | $1 |
| 121 | Ryan Gomes, Min SF | $1 |
| 127 | Nenad Krstic, OKC C | $1 |
Here's another team with a Big Three and then fillers. It's a veteran team, for sure, and if injuries pile up, we'll know why. There's nothing very exciting with this team, but nothing really wrong with it, either, besides the age/potential injury issue. I do see a potential lack of threes and not the highest rebound total, though.
PHI HoopsKlyce.com (David Klyce)
| 31 | Derrick Rose, Chi PG | $27 |
| 36 | Brandon Roy, Por SG | $40 |
| 42 | Carmelo Anthony, Den SF | $32 |
| 43 | Tim Duncan, SA C | $24 |
| 56 | Kevin Martin, Sac SG | $35 |
| 57 | Mo Williams, Cle PG | $9 |
| 64 | Emeka Okafor, Nor C | $6 |
| 78 | Eric Gordon, LAC SG | $21 |
| 101 | Josh Howard, Dal SG | $1 |
| 109 | Ramon Sessions, Min PG | $1 |
| 117 | Jonny Flynn, Min PG | $1 |
| 124 | Yi Jianlian, NJ PF | $1 |
| 129 | Derrick Byars*, Chi SF | $1 |
ESPN allows you to put in your own dollar values to rank the players before the auction. I highly recommend that. Otherwise, the system will give you Derrick Byars. Klyce didn't spend a dime until the 31st nominated player, and then he pounced on five good values within the next 25 nominations. He also had enough money to steal Eric Gordon from me a bit later. This team is perhaps a little light on assists and low on FG%, but it's not a bad bunch. I like Flynn and Yi late for $1 each.
IN SUM
I am in baseball auctions every year, but this was my first basketball auction in a looooong time (I auctioned hoops from 1983 to 1993 but haven't since). Yes, some of my favorites back then were Paul Pressey, Mark Aguirre, Clyde Drexler, and Patrick Ewing. And it was fun auctioning off Magic, Barkley, Olajuwan, and especially Jordan back in the day. In fact, I had forgotten how much fun it was. Do yourself a favor and if you have a draft on Sunday, talk your buddies into auctioning on ESPN instead. You won't regret it.
ALSO
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