2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy/Instructions
Posted by: DaveGawron
on Oct 20, 2009
PROJECTIONS KEY
First things first, you MUST NOT draft without our projections, either the PDF printed on your desk or our Excel file on your desktop. Here's what the colors mean...
| Key | FGP* | FTP* | 3PT | RPG | APG | SPG | TO** | BPG | PPG |
| Elite | 50-100 | 84-100 | 130-300 | 7.8-15.0 | 5.7-15.0 | 1.4-3.0 | 0.0-1.3 | 1.4-3.0 | 21.0-39.9 |
| Good | 48-49 | 79-83 | 100-129 | 6.3-7.7 | 4.5-5.6 | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-2.1 | 0.9-1.3 | 18.0-20.9 |
| Average | 45-47 | 73-78 | 40-99 | 4.0-6.3 | 2.5-4.4 | 0.7-1.1 | 2.2-2.7 | 0.4-0.8 | 14.0-17.9 |
| Bad | 43-44 | 67-72 | 20-39 | 3.0-3.9 | 2.0-2.4 | 0.6 | 2.8-5.0 | 0.3 | 10.0-13.9 |
| Terrible | 0-42 | 0-66 | 0-19 | 0.0-2.9 | 0.0-1.9 | 0.0-0.5 | N/A | 0.0-0.2 | 0.0-9.9 |
* The percentage ranges are not hard and fast. They depend on the number of FGM and FTM. For example, LeBron's 49% FGP is "elite" because he'll tally 790 FGM and anchor your team in that category. Rajon Rondo's 49% is "good" because he'll total 420 FGM. Ronny Turiaf's 49% is "average" since he'll only make 180 field goals in the season.
** We use grayscale markings for turnovers, since not every league uses the category.
Also, I tend to clump by position/skill as you get further down the list, creating tiers, in effect. For example, the point guards listed from 89 to 93 (Lou Williams, Aaron Brooks, etc.) aren't very different from each other. The difference among like players lessens as you get further down. Depending on your needs, don't be afraid to "reach" as many as 20 spots down if that's where your best needs-based player sits (for example, Chris Andersen's 2.6 BPG).
During a draft, when a player is taken, I just highlight that row orange, giving me a good sense of what's left and what is not. When I take a player on my team, I copy his row and paste it into the MY TEAM worksheet to track my category needs before coloring him orange on the main sheet. For h2h leagues, I have a printout of my games-per-week schedule at hand to remind me of the players' fantasy playoff schedules.
CLICK HERE to download our projections PDF or Excel file.
HEAD-TO-HEAD, POINTS, and ROTISSERIE (ROTO) SCORING
Fantasy Basketball is the least standard of the fantasy "Big Three" of football, baseball, and hoops, which makes it tough (but not impossible) to use one cheat sheet for all. However, it CAN be done by sorting our Top 200 Projections Excel file. Our rankings are set for a standard 8-cat roto league. If you're in a 9-cat roto league, just keep an eye on the TO column, and if you're choosing among a few similar players, take the one with the fewest turnovers.
For head-to-head leagues, you really need to look at how many games are played per week in the player's NBA teams weeks during your fantasy playoffs and use that as a tie-breaker among like players. Also, for your lesser players at the end of the draft, take the ones with heavy early schedules like Portland and Toronto over weak early schedules like the Bulls and Warriors. For the grid itself and more info, click through this 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Games-per-Week Schedule Grid link.
For points leagues, we have included formulas in the Excel file for each major (CBS, Yahoo, ESPN) default points scoring systems. Here are the specifics:
- CBS: 2 points per AST; 1 per REB, STL, BLK, PTS; -1 per TO
- Yahoo: 3 points per STL, BLK; 2 per AST; 1.5 per REB; 1 per FGM, FTM, 3PT; -0.45 per FGA; -0.75 per FTA; -2 per TO
- ESPN: 1 point per FGM, FTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, PTS; -1 per FGA, FTA, TO
When drafting in these leagues, you can re-sort the file by the appropriate column. Also in points leagues, without having to worry about categories, notice how specialists (3PT, BLK) tend to drop down the rankings. Category-killers like Dwight Howard (FTP) move up, because we're looking at pure overall value, now, regardless of where it comes from categorically. Go for the more reliable players to build a solid base early and then go for higher upside players in the middle. At the end, you want to alternate the boring Udonis Haslem's and upside James Harden's as to have a good mix as opposed to a bench full of upside busts or boring stiffs - take a couple of each.
For h2h 9-cat roto leagues, it's best to try and achieve balance early, but as the draft wears on if you're lacking somewhere, you can think about bailing out of that category.
DRAFT vs. AUCTION
We have provided auction prices based on the default ESPN auction league: 10-teams, 8-cat roto, NOT h2h, 10 starters (the 5 positions, plus a F, a G, and 3 FLEX), and 3 reserves. It's VERY hard to wait, but I like to let the elite players go, and then get a power guy and a point guard for $25-30 each. Then there will be a time in your auction where the players start going for prices below our values. That's when I draft most of my team for $10-25. I then just bid $1 each on the reserves, who will be rotated with free agents throughout the season.
Also, note that our auction prices represent VALUE more than recommended bid amount. If you realize at the outset that your leaguemates are overbidding at the very top, then don't be shy about going $5 over on the second tier guys (like $50 for Stoudemire or $45 for Bosh). Also regarding our recommended dollar values, you'll notice our gradual decline in pricing through our Top 150. There's a sharper cliff in real life. The trick is figuring out during the draft exactly where that cliff drops. In my recent auction, it started happening around the 60th nomination, when everybody's funds were drained.
Finally, the problem with covering Dwight Howard's FT% and TOs in straight drafts is being limited in your choices to make up for that. In an auction, EVERY player is at your disposal if you're willing to pay the price. the default ESPN 8-cat roto auction is the perfect league in which to take him and simply pay an extra few dollars on a few high-volume, high-percentage FT shooters to cover yourself.
Auctions are awesome. Try one, if you haven't. For more specifics, read my analysis of my recent expert auction.
GENERAL STRATEGY
It's a good idea to walk away with two rock-solid point guards (FTP-3PT-STL-AST-PTS) and a third lesser one, plus maybe even a fourth if you're lucky. Point guards are always tradable commodities. Also, you can't pass up a Kobe or LeBron early, but getting 2-3 solid big men (FGP-REB-BLK-PTS) early is helpful as well. Feel free to diverge a little if you see value, but the "PG+PF/C early" plan is tried and true. You can always back-fill with 3PT and STL specialists later.
10-TEAM vs. 12-TEAM LEAGUES / ROSTER SIZE
How many teams you have in your league does make a difference. It makes the hard-to-get categories harder to get. Value point guards (assists) and blocks a bit more in 12-team leagues. Take them a little earlier than you would in 10-team leagues.
POSITION ELIGIBILITY & REQUIREMENTS
DEFINITELY check and double-check the position eligibility of players in your league before you draft, especially if your league requires two centers. I find CBS to be the strictest, ESPN in the middle, and Yahoo the most lenient. Our eligibility on the RC site is a mixture of the three, probably most like ESPN. If your league requires two centers and is a 12-team league, obviously value your centers far more than if you're in a 10-team, one-center league (don't reach too far, just use the eligibility as a tie-breaker when selection big men. Take the C/PF before the PF when comparing similar players.
ALSO
We currently have Top 200 Cheat Sheet and Games-per-Week Schedule Grid downloads available in our 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit. And don't forget, we will promptly answer any questions you may have about your team, line-up, waiver wire, and trades in our FORUM. It just takes a minute to REGISTER a username and password for our site (allowing you to download draft kit files and post reviews, comments, blogs, and forum topics).

