2009 Fantasy Basketball 9/23/09 Expert Mock Draft Analysis
Posted by: DaveGawron
on Oct 5, 2009
On September 23, 2009, RotoCommunity.com participated in a fantasy basketball mock draft (on Mock Draft Central) with the other industry experts listed below:
- Karen McCaslin - Hoops Klyce
- Kyle McKeown - Rotowire
- Matt Buser - Buser Sports
- Tom Lorenzo - RotoExperts
- Steve Alexander - Rotoworld
- Tim Trout - Beckett Sports Media
- Dave Gawron - Roto Community
- Geoffrey Stein - Mock Draft Central
- Jeff Andriesse - RotoExperts
- Shannon McKeown - Rotowire
- Rich Wilson - Fantasy Pros 911
- BJ VanderWoude - Game Time Decisions
Player position eligibility was provided by Mock Draft Central. We assumed standard 8 category roto scoring (FG%, FT%, 3s, Rb, Ast, St, Bk, Pts) with 10 starters (2C-4F-4G) and 5 reserves. Here's how the draft went down round-by-round, with analysis following each round.
ROUND 1
| Round | Player | Pos | Team | Team |
| R1 P1 | James, LeBron | F | CLE | Karen McCaslin |
| R1 P2 | Paul, Chris | G | NO | Kyle McKeown |
| R1 P3 | Wade, Dwyane | G | MIA | Matt Buser |
| R1 P4 | Durant, Kevin | G, F | OKC | Tom Lorenzo |
| R1 P5 | Granger, Danny | G, F | IND | Steve Alexander |
| R1 P6 | Bryant, Kobe | G | LAL | Tim Trout |
| R1 P7 | Nowitzki, Dirk | F | DAL | Dave Gawron |
| R1 P8 | Williams, Deron | G | UTA | Geoffrey Stein |
| R1 P9 | Stoudemire, Amar'e | F, C | PHO | Jeff Andriesse |
| R1 P10 | Bosh, Chris | F, C | TOR | Shannon McKeown |
| R1 P11 | Jefferson, Al | F, C | MIN | Rich Wilson |
| R1 P12 | Gasol, Pau | F, C | LAL | BJ VanderWoude |
The first round is pretty predictable this year in fantasy basketball. James and Paul should always be 1-2, though Paul may go first in some drafts. Wade should often be #3, and 4-7 here are usually 4-7 elsewhere. You then need to ask yourself a question between 8-12 how badly you want Williams' 10 assists per game or how you want to fill your center position. I see Stoudemire and Jefferson as injury risks and prefer Bosh and Gasol myself, but really, Bosh and Gasol are a bit risky in their own right. You basically just have to cross your fingers that whichever one you pick makes it through the season. Also, if you end up with the 8, 9, or 10 slot, trade down to 11 or 12, as there's a drop from pick 7 to 8, but 8-12 are about the same.
ROUND 2
| R2 P1 | Roy, Brandon | G | POR | BJ VanderWoude |
| R2 P2 | Nash, Steve | G | PHO | Rich Wilson |
| R2 P3 | Harris, Devin | G | NJ | Shannon McKeown |
| R2 P4 | Calderon, Jose | G | TOR | Jeff Andriesse |
| R2 P5 | Billups, Chauncey | G | DEN | Geoffrey Stein |
| R2 P6 | Johnson, Joe | G | ATL | Dave Gawron |
| R2 P7 | Carter, Vince | G, F | ORL | Tim Trout |
| R2 P8 | Howard, Dwight | C | ORL | Steve Alexander |
| R2 P9 | Kidd, Jason | G | DAL | Tom Lorenzo |
| R2 P10 | Wallace, Gerald | F | CHR | Matt Buser |
| R2 P11 | Iguodala, Andre | G, F | PHI | Kyle McKeown |
| R2 P12 | Butler, Caron | G, F | WAS | Karen McCaslin |
Picks 9-12 in the first round went with C/F types and came back in the second round with PGs, which is certainly not a bad strategy. I like Roy there for his all-around game and Nash for his 10+ assists. Shannon and Jeff are counting on upside from Harris and Calderon, but I might prefer the consistency of Billups, personally. It's highly recommended to come out of the first two rounds with a center and a point guard or at least nab your point guard in the third. Johnson is going for his big money contract this year. It feels early for Carter with the unknown of being on a new team. Howard just kills your free throw percentage, and I just couldn't take him in Rotisserie. Kidd's scoring is too low for me in the second, but I'd think about him in the third. We close out the round with three decent wing-men, which is about where they should all go.
ROUND 3
| R3 P1 | Duncan, Tim | F, C | SAN | Karen McCaslin |
| R3 P2 | Arenas, Gilbert | G | WAS | Kyle McKeown |
| R3 P3 | Murphy, Troy | F, C | IND | Matt Buser |
| R3 P4 | Lopez, Brook | F, C | NJ | Tom Lorenzo |
| R3 P5 | Rose, Derrick | G | CHI | Steve Alexander |
| R3 P6 | Boozer, Carlos | F, C | UTA | Tim Trout |
| R3 P7 | Anthony, Carmelo | F | DEN | Dave Gawron |
| R3 P8 | Garnett, Kevin | F | BOS | Geoffrey Stein |
| R3 P9 | Martin, Kevin | G | SAC | Jeff Andriesse |
| R3 P10 | Smith, Josh | F | ATL | Shannon McKeown |
| R3 P11 | West, David | F | NO | Rich Wilson |
| R3 P12 | Jamison, Antawn | F | WAS | BJ VanderWoude |
Believe it or not, the third round is where we start taking risks. Can Tim Duncan's knees hold up? Duncan was selected at the right point, but that feels a bit early for me for Arenas. I don't like the apparently fragile Murphy there, but I do like the emerging Brook Lopez. I like the huge points and solid rebounding from Anthony for me there. Boozer is too injury prone for me, and Garnett's knee scares me, but I do like West and Jamison here for their points and rebounds and Smith for his steals/blocks potential. Martin is a fine player, but you can get shooting guards later that aren't that much worse, though I do understand the lure of the 25 ppg here.
ROUND 4
| R4 P1 | Pierce, Paul | G, F | BOS | BJ VanderWoude |
| R4 P2 | Rondo, Rajon | G | BOS | Rich Wilson |
| R4 P3 | Brand, Elton | F, C | PHI | Shannon McKeown |
| R4 P4 | Lee, David | F, C | NY | Jeff Andriesse |
| R4 P5 | Bargnani, Andrea | F, C | TOR | Geoffrey Stein |
| R4 P6 | Aldridge, LaMarcus | F, C | POR | Dave Gawron |
| R4 P7 | Biedrins, Andris | C | GS | Tim Trout |
| R4 P8 | Lewis, Rashard | F | ORL | Steve Alexander |
| R4 P9 | Marion, Shawn | F | DAL | Tom Lorenzo |
| R4 P10 | Allen, Ray | G | BOS | Matt Buser |
| R4 P11 | Ellis, Monta | G | GS | Kyle McKeown |
| R4 P12 | Villanueva, Charlie | F | DET | Karen McCaslin |
3 Celts in this round. Taking Rondo was smart, clearly being the best AST-STL PG remaining. I don't like Brand based on his injury history, but Lee, Bargnani, and Aldridge are all good center picks here. Pierce and Lewis are good R4 picks, but I have my doubts about Marion on the new team, Allen and his old body, and Ellis and his nutty coach and iffy surroundings. And though he's not a bad pick in general, that's just too early for Villanueva, who should go late R5/early R6.
ROUND 5
| R5 P1 | Williams, Mo | G | CLE | Karen McCaslin |
| R5 P2 | Okafor, Emeka | F, C | NO | Kyle McKeown |
| R5 P3 | Okur, Mehmet | F, C | UTA | Matt Buser |
| R5 P4 | Richardson, Jason | G, F | PHO | Tom Lorenzo |
| R5 P5 | Westbrook, Russell | G | OKC | Steve Alexander |
| R5 P6 | Jackson, Stephen | G, F | GS | Tim Trout |
| R5 P7 | Parker, Tony | G | SAN | Dave Gawron |
| R5 P8 | Redd, Michael | G, F | MIL | Geoffrey Stein |
| R5 P9 | Horford, Al | F, C | ATL | Jeff Andriesse |
| R5 P10 | Davis, Baron | G | LAC | Shannon McKeown |
| R5 P11 | Camby, Marcus | F, C | LAC | Rich Wilson |
| R5 P12 | Gay, Rudy | F | MEM | BJ VanderWoude |
There's not much value left in the way of point guards. These R5 PGs are fine for their round, but all have deficiencies at this point (Mo low AST, Westbrook low FGP/3s, Parker 3s, Davis FGP/FTP). Okur, Okafor, Horford, and Camby are all fine centers here. Of the wings selected here, Richardson could really excel in the new PHO offense. I have reservations about Jackson because of the wackiness in GS, Redd because of the suckiness in MIL and his injury proclivity, and Gay because of the logjam in MEM.
ROUND 6
| R6 P1 | Hilario, Nene | F, C | DEN | BJ VanderWoude |
| R6 P2 | Ginobili, Manu | G | SAN | Rich Wilson |
| R6 P3 | Green, Jeff | F | OKC | Shannon McKeown |
| R6 P4 | Harrington, Al | F, C | NY | Jeff Andriesse |
| R6 P5 | Barbosa, Leandro | G | PHO | Geoffrey Stein |
| R6 P6 | Miller, Andre | G | POR | Dave Gawron |
| R6 P7 | Turkoglu, Hedo | G, F | TOR | Tim Trout |
| R6 P8 | Bynum, Andrew | C | LAL | Steve Alexander |
| R6 P9 | Gordon, Eric | G, F | LAC | Tom Lorenzo |
| R6 P10 | Nelson, Jameer | G | ORL | Matt Buser |
| R6 P11 | Mayo, O.J. | G | MEM | Kyle McKeown |
| R6 P12 | Felton, Raymond | G | CHR | Karen McCaslin |
Point guards Miller, Nelson, and Felton were properly taken here, as the last three PGs I'd be comfortable with getting 6+ AST plus other decent enough stats from. Nene and Bynum are good big men here, though they're not exponentially better than Hawes and Love in the next round. The others are decent enough R6 picks, mostly giving you nice 3s. I'm not crazy about Mayo this early, given the presence of Iverson in Memphis, and I'd likely wait another round before taking Barbosa.
ROUND 7
| R7 P1 | Gordon, Ben | G | DET | Karen McCaslin |
| R7 P2 | Salmons, John | G, F | CHI | Kyle McKeown |
| R7 P3 | Randolph, Anthony | F | GS | Matt Buser |
| R7 P4 | Thomas, Tyrus | F | CHI | Tom Lorenzo |
| R7 P5 | Griffin, Blake | F | LAC | Steve Alexander |
| R7 P6 | Hawes, Spencer | F, C | SAC | Tim Trout |
| R7 P7 | Love, Kevin | F, C | MIN | Dave Gawron |
| R7 P8 | Millsap, Paul | F, C | UTA | Geoffrey Stein |
| R7 P9 | Terry, Jason | G | DAL | Jeff Andriesse |
| R7 P10 | Bibby, Mike | G | ATL | Shannon McKeown |
| R7 P11 | Randolph, Zach | F, C | MEM | Rich Wilson |
| R7 P12 | Ford, T.J. | G | IND | BJ VanderWoude |
R7 was dominated by big men, as it should have been. Hawes and Love are nice young centers with upside, and Millsap should still get 30 solid MPG even with Boozer around. Randolph, Thomas, and Griffin offer nice upside for big men. It feels early for Griffin and Thomas, but make sure you're the one in your league that ends up with Randolph, just in case he does fulfill his potential this year. I like Gordon and Salmons well enough here, though I might have waited another round, but I'm not a big fan of Terry (Marion) or Bibby (Crawford) with their new teammates, and I am wary of Grizzlies with the logjam there. I do like Ford here, as the remaining point guards are so iffy.
ROUND 8
| R8 P1 | Jefferson, Richard | F | SAN | BJ VanderWoude |
| R8 P2 | Smith, J.R. | G, F | DEN | Rich Wilson |
| R8 P3 | Beasley, Michael | F | MIA | Shannon McKeown |
| R8 P4 | Ariza, Trevor | F | HOU | Jeff Andriesse |
| R8 P5 | Bogut, Andrew | C | MIL | Geoffrey Stein |
| R8 P6 | Scola, Luis | F, C | HOU | Dave Gawron |
| R8 P7 | Deng, Luol | G, F | CHI | Tim Trout |
| R8 P8 | Diaw, Boris | F, C | CHR | Steve Alexander |
| R8 P9 | Thompson, Jason | F, C | SAC | Tom Lorenzo |
| R8 P10 | Artest, Ron | G, F | LAL | Matt Buser |
| R8 P11 | Oden, Greg | C | POR | Kyle McKeown |
| R8 P12 | Chandler, Wilson | G, F | NY | Karen McCaslin |
Bogut is too gimpy for me (I owned him last year), but I do like the four C-eligibles immediately following him, and it's a good time to take a shot at Oden. Jefferson, Ariza, and Artest offer across-the-board value from the wing, while Beasley and Chandler offer upside. Smith is a whiz with 3s, but needs to prove his worth for a whole season before I bite on him.
ROUND 9
| R9 P1 | Chalmers, Mario | G | MIA | Karen McCaslin |
| R9 P2 | McGrady, Tracy | G, F | HOU | Kyle McKeown |
| R9 P3 | Wallace, Rasheed | F, C | BOS | Matt Buser |
| R9 P4 | Sessions, Ramon | G | MIL | Tom Lorenzo |
| R9 P5 | Conley, Mike | G | MEM | Steve Alexander |
| R9 P6 | Chandler, Tyson | C | OKC | Tim Trout |
| R9 P7 | Howard, Josh | G, F | DAL | Dave Gawron |
| R9 P8 | Odom, Lamar | F | LAL | Geoffrey Stein |
| R9 P9 | Garcia, Francisco | G, F | SAC | Jeff Andriesse |
| R9 P10 | Williams, Louis | G | PHI | Shannon McKeown |
| R9 P11 | Maggette, Corey | G, F | GS | Rich Wilson |
| R9 P12 | Kaman, Chris | C | LAC | BJ VanderWoude |
Sessions and Conley, while not bad in R9, are looking at timeshares, so I like Lou Willimas the best for assists here. We saw the last run of quality centers in R8. I'm not fond of Wallace, Chandler, or Kaman here. Howard's production dips with the arrival of Marion, but he's still useful. Odom will at least give you boards. Garcia is a good upside/3s pick here, but I wouldn't touch McGrady or Maggette with a ten-foot pole.
ROUND 10
| R10 P1 | Duhon, Chris | G | NY | BJ VanderWoude |
| R10 P2 | Robinson, Nate | G | NY | Rich Wilson |
| R10 P3 | Curry, Stephen | G | GS | Shannon McKeown |
| R10 P4 | Andersen, Chris | F | DEN | Jeff Andriesse |
| R10 P5 | Battier, Shane | F | HOU | Geoffrey Stein |
| R10 P6 | Brooks, Aaron | G | HOU | Dave Gawron |
| R10 P7 | Hamilton, Richard | G, F | DET | Tim Trout |
| R10 P8 | Iverson, Allen | G | DET | Steve Alexander |
| R10 P9 | Williams, Marvin | F | ATL | Tom Lorenzo |
| R10 P10 | Stuckey, Rodney | G | DET | Matt Buser |
| R10 P11 | Noah, Joakim | F, C | CHI | Kyle McKeown |
| R10 P12 | Gasol, Marc | C | MEM | Karen McCaslin |
I like all of the guards selected here, with the exception of Curry (a bit early for him). Snatching up the last sources of assists is not a bad idea. Gasol and Noah are good sources of rebounds and blocks for your bench, and Andersen is a good situational sho-blocker to start when needed. Battier and Marvin are nice across-the-board. I do like Brooks with the most upside here (he said, patting himself on the back).
ROUND 11
| R11 P1 | Hibbert, Roy | C | IND | Karen McCaslin |
| R11 P2 | Lee, Courtney | G, F | NJ | Kyle McKeown |
| R11 P3 | Brewer, Ronnie | G, F | UTA | Matt Buser |
| R11 P4 | Jianlian, Yi | F | NJ | Tom Lorenzo |
| R11 P5 | Harden, James | G | OKC | Steve Alexander |
| R11 P6 | Thornton, Al | F | LAC | Tim Trout |
| R11 P7 | Young, Thaddeus | F | PHI | Dave Gawron |
| R11 P8 | Kirilenko, Andrei | F | UTA | Geoffrey Stein |
| R11 P9 | O'Neal, Jermaine | F, C | MIA | Jeff Andriesse |
| R11 P10 | Dalembert, Samuel | C | PHI | Shannon McKeown |
| R11 P11 | Dunleavy, Mike | G, F | IND | Rich Wilson |
| R11 P12 | Miller, Brad | C | CHI | BJ VanderWoude |
This is where we start filling out our bench, and we would hope our starters come through while these players see no more than a handful of weeks in our starting line-ups. I'm not crazy about Hibbert, but Lee and Yi are two nice Nets with upside. Brewer, Thornton, and Young are role players, useful in their four-game weeks. Kirilenko and Dalembert can block some shots off your bench, and O'Neal and Miller are fine back-up centers. I would wait a few more rounds before taking a chance on Dunleavy.
ROUND 12
| R12 P1 | Crawford, Jamal | G | ATL | BJ VanderWoude |
| R12 P2 | Haywood, Brendan | C | WAS | Rich Wilson |
| R12 P3 | Stojakovic, Peja | G, F | NO | Shannon McKeown |
| R12 P4 | Evans, Tyreke | G | SAC | Jeff Andriesse |
| R12 P5 | McDyess, Antonio | F, C | SAN | Geoffrey Stein |
| R12 P6 | O'Neal, Shaquille | C | CLE | Dave Gawron |
| R12 P7 | Perkins, Kendrick | C | BOS | Tim Trout |
| R12 P8 | Belinelli, Marco | G | GS | Steve Alexander |
| R12 P9 | Bass, Brandon | F | ORL | Tom Lorenzo |
| R12 P10 | Miller, Mike | G, F | WAS | Matt Buser |
| R12 P11 | Pietrus, Mickael | G, F | ORL | Kyle McKeown |
| R12 P12 | Augustin, D.J. | G | CHR | Karen McCaslin |
We're basically just speculating here. How will Crawford fit in with the Hawks? Is Peja's back going to hold up this year? Can the youngsters Evans, Belinelli, and Augustin develop enough to be useful off our fantasy benches this season? Haywood, McDyess, Shaq, and Perkins are all good back-up centers here. I'm not a fan of Bass or Pietrus at all, and Millier's situation is too crowded (Foye/Stevenson).
ROUND 13
| R13 P1 | Thabeet, Hasheem | C | MEM | Karen McCaslin |
| R13 P2 | Williams, Terrence | F | NJ | Kyle McKeown |
| R13 P3 | Hinrich, Kirk | G | CHI | Matt Buser |
| R13 P4 | Gallinari, Danilo | F | NY | Tom Lorenzo |
| R13 P5 | Azubuike, Kelenna | G, F | GS | Steve Alexander |
| R13 P6 | Udrih, Beno | G | SAC | Tim Trout |
| R13 P7 | Prince, Tayshaun | F | DET | Dave Gawron |
| R13 P8 | Foye, Randy | G | WAS | Geoffrey Stein |
| R13 P9 | Landry, Carl | F | HOU | Jeff Andriesse |
| R13 P10 | Flynn, Jonny | G | MIN | Shannon McKeown |
| R13 P11 | Martin, Kenyon | F | DEN | Rich Wilson |
| R13 P12 | Lowry, Kyle | G | HOU | BJ VanderWoude |
We're down to tossing the spaghetti against the wall and seeing what sticks.I like Gallinari and Hinrich best here for their potential to take a solid 30 MPG and run with it. Landry is a decent choice, too. Prince was just a player I could use if injury strikes that wouldn't hurt me too much anywhere. The others have serious playing time (Udrih perhaps losing his job to Evans) or injury (K-Mart) issues, which can be expected in this round.
ROUND 14
| R14 P1 | Outlaw, Travis | F | POR | BJ VanderWoude |
| R14 P2 | Bell, Raja | G | CHR | Rich Wilson |
| R14 P3 | Frye, Channing | F | PHO | Shannon McKeown |
| R14 P4 | Warrick, Hakim | F | MEM | Jeff Andriesse |
| R14 P5 | Mason, Roger | G | SAN | Geoffrey Stein |
| R14 P6 | Fernandez, Rudy | G | POR | Dave Gawron |
| R14 P7 | Richardson, Quentin | G, F | LAC | Tim Trout |
| R14 P8 | Ridnour, Luke | G | MIL | Steve Alexander |
| R14 P9 | Varejao, Anderson | F, C | CLE | Tom Lorenzo |
| R14 P10 | Milicic, Darko | F, C | NY | Matt Buser |
| R14 P11 | Nocioni, Andres | F | SAC | Kyle McKeown |
| R14 P12 | Speights, Marreese | F, C | PHI | Karen McCaslin |
I really like Rudy here. I needed 3s, and he'll apparently handle the ball more this season. Frye is my next favorite pick in the round, as he could see 30 useful MPG for the Suns. Otherwise, no offense to the other participants in the draft, but the other picks in this round would likely be dropped early in the season if this league were to be played out.
ROUND 15
| R15 P1 | Rush, Brandon | G, F | IND | Karen McCaslin |
| R15 P2 | DeRozan, DeMar | F | TOR | Kyle McKeown |
| R15 P3 | Lopez, Robin | F, C | PHO | Matt Buser |
| R15 P4 | Turiaf, Ronny | F, C | GS | Tom Lorenzo |
| R15 P5 | Wilcox, Chris | C | DET | Steve Alexander |
| R15 P6 | Haslem, Udonis | F, C | MIA | Tim Trout |
| R15 P7 | Hill, Grant | G, F | PHO | Dave Gawron |
| R15 P8 | Parker, Anthony | G | CLE | Geoffrey Stein |
| R15 P9 | Gomes, Ryan | F | MIN | Jeff Andriesse |
| R15 P10 | Hansbrough, Tyler | F | IND | Shannon McKeown |
| R15 P11 | Ilgauskas, Zydrunas | C | CLE | Rich Wilson |
| R15 P12 | Bayless, Jerryd | G | POR | BJ VanderWoude |
There's not much to like in this final round. Wilcox and Haslem are decent enough pick as back-up centers. Rush and Parker are good enough for threes. Looking back now, I'd rather have taken Julian Wright there for his upside than Hill.
ALSO
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