2009 Fantasy Basketball 9/23/09 Expert Mock Draft Analysis

Posted by: DaveGawron

DaveGawron

On September 23, 2009, RotoCommunity.com participated in a fantasy basketball mock draft (on Mock Draft Central) with the other industry experts listed below:

  1. Karen McCaslin - Hoops Klyce
  2. Kyle McKeown - Rotowire
  3. Matt Buser - Buser Sports
  4. Tom Lorenzo - RotoExperts
  5. Steve Alexander - Rotoworld
  6. Tim Trout - Beckett Sports Media
  7. Dave Gawron - Roto Community
  8. Geoffrey Stein - Mock Draft Central
  9. Jeff Andriesse - RotoExperts
  10. Shannon McKeown - Rotowire
  11. Rich Wilson - Fantasy Pros 911
  12. BJ VanderWoude - Game Time Decisions

Player position eligibility was provided by Mock Draft Central. We assumed standard 8 category roto scoring (FG%, FT%, 3s, Rb, Ast, St, Bk, Pts) with 10 starters (2C-4F-4G) and 5 reserves. Here's how the draft went down round-by-round, with analysis following each round.

ROUND 1

Round Player  Pos  Team  Team
R1 P1 James, LeBron F CLE Karen McCaslin
R1 P2 Paul, Chris G NO Kyle McKeown
R1 P3 Wade, Dwyane G MIA Matt Buser
R1 P4 Durant, Kevin G, F OKC Tom Lorenzo
R1 P5 Granger, Danny G, F IND Steve Alexander
R1 P6 Bryant, Kobe G LAL Tim Trout
R1 P7 Nowitzki, Dirk F DAL Dave Gawron
R1 P8 Williams, Deron G UTA Geoffrey Stein
R1 P9 Stoudemire, Amar'e F, C PHO Jeff Andriesse
R1 P10 Bosh, Chris F, C TOR Shannon McKeown
R1 P11 Jefferson, Al F, C MIN Rich Wilson
R1 P12 Gasol, Pau F, C LAL BJ VanderWoude

The first round is pretty predictable this year in fantasy basketball. James and Paul should always be 1-2, though Paul may go first in some drafts. Wade should often be #3, and 4-7 here are usually 4-7 elsewhere. You then need to ask yourself a question between 8-12 how badly you want Williams' 10 assists per game or how you want to fill your center position. I see Stoudemire and Jefferson as injury risks and prefer Bosh and Gasol myself, but really, Bosh and Gasol are a bit risky in their own right. You basically just have to cross your fingers that whichever one you pick makes it through the season. Also, if you end up with the 8, 9, or 10 slot, trade down to 11 or 12, as there's a drop from pick 7 to 8, but 8-12 are about the same.

ROUND 2

R2 P1 Roy, Brandon G POR BJ VanderWoude
R2 P2 Nash, Steve G PHO Rich Wilson
R2 P3 Harris, Devin G NJ Shannon McKeown
R2 P4 Calderon, Jose G TOR Jeff Andriesse
R2 P5 Billups, Chauncey G DEN Geoffrey Stein
R2 P6 Johnson, Joe G ATL Dave Gawron
R2 P7 Carter, Vince G, F ORL Tim Trout
R2 P8 Howard, Dwight C ORL Steve Alexander
R2 P9 Kidd, Jason G DAL Tom Lorenzo
R2 P10 Wallace, Gerald F CHR Matt Buser
R2 P11 Iguodala, Andre G, F PHI Kyle McKeown
R2 P12 Butler, Caron G, F WAS Karen McCaslin

Picks 9-12 in the first round went with C/F types and came back in the second round with PGs, which is certainly not a bad strategy. I like Roy there for his all-around game and Nash for his 10+ assists. Shannon and Jeff are counting on upside from Harris and Calderon, but I might prefer the consistency of Billups, personally. It's highly recommended to come out of the first two rounds with a center and a point guard or at least nab your point guard in the third. Johnson is going for his big money contract this year. It feels early for Carter with the unknown of being on a new team. Howard just kills your free throw percentage, and I just couldn't take him in Rotisserie. Kidd's scoring is too low for me in the second, but I'd think about him in the third. We close out the round with three decent wing-men, which is about where they should all go.

ROUND 3

R3 P1 Duncan, Tim F, C SAN Karen McCaslin
R3 P2 Arenas, Gilbert G WAS Kyle McKeown
R3 P3 Murphy, Troy F, C IND Matt Buser
R3 P4 Lopez, Brook F, C NJ Tom Lorenzo
R3 P5 Rose, Derrick G CHI Steve Alexander
R3 P6 Boozer, Carlos F, C UTA Tim Trout
R3 P7 Anthony, Carmelo F DEN Dave Gawron
R3 P8 Garnett, Kevin F BOS Geoffrey Stein
R3 P9 Martin, Kevin G SAC Jeff Andriesse
R3 P10 Smith, Josh F ATL Shannon McKeown
R3 P11 West, David F NO Rich Wilson
R3 P12 Jamison, Antawn F WAS BJ VanderWoude

Believe it or not, the third round is where we start taking risks. Can Tim Duncan's knees hold up? Duncan was selected at the right point, but that feels a bit early for me for Arenas. I don't like the apparently fragile Murphy there, but I do like the emerging Brook Lopez. I like the huge points and solid rebounding from Anthony for me there. Boozer is too injury prone for me, and Garnett's knee scares me, but I do like West and Jamison here for their points and rebounds and Smith for his steals/blocks potential. Martin is a fine player, but you can get shooting guards later that aren't that much worse, though I do understand the lure of the 25 ppg here.

ROUND 4

R4 P1 Pierce, Paul G, F BOS BJ VanderWoude
R4 P2 Rondo, Rajon G BOS Rich Wilson
R4 P3 Brand, Elton F, C PHI Shannon McKeown
R4 P4 Lee, David F, C NY Jeff Andriesse
R4 P5 Bargnani, Andrea F, C TOR Geoffrey Stein
R4 P6 Aldridge, LaMarcus F, C POR Dave Gawron
R4 P7 Biedrins, Andris C GS Tim Trout
R4 P8 Lewis, Rashard F ORL Steve Alexander
R4 P9 Marion, Shawn F DAL Tom Lorenzo
R4 P10 Allen, Ray G BOS Matt Buser
R4 P11 Ellis, Monta G GS Kyle McKeown
R4 P12 Villanueva, Charlie F DET Karen McCaslin

3 Celts in this round. Taking Rondo was smart, clearly being the best AST-STL PG remaining. I don't like Brand based on his injury history, but Lee, Bargnani, and Aldridge are all good center picks here. Pierce and Lewis are good R4 picks, but I have my doubts about Marion on the new team, Allen and his old body, and Ellis and his nutty coach and iffy surroundings. And though he's not a bad pick in general, that's just too early for Villanueva, who should go late R5/early R6.

ROUND 5

R5 P1 Williams, Mo G CLE Karen McCaslin
R5 P2 Okafor, Emeka F, C NO Kyle McKeown
R5 P3 Okur, Mehmet F, C UTA Matt Buser
R5 P4 Richardson, Jason G, F PHO Tom Lorenzo
R5 P5 Westbrook, Russell G OKC Steve Alexander
R5 P6 Jackson, Stephen G, F GS Tim Trout
R5 P7 Parker, Tony G SAN Dave Gawron
R5 P8 Redd, Michael G, F MIL Geoffrey Stein
R5 P9 Horford, Al F, C ATL Jeff Andriesse
R5 P10 Davis, Baron G LAC Shannon McKeown
R5 P11 Camby, Marcus F, C LAC Rich Wilson
R5 P12 Gay, Rudy F MEM BJ VanderWoude

There's not much value left in the way of point guards. These R5 PGs are fine for their round, but all have deficiencies at this point (Mo low AST, Westbrook low FGP/3s, Parker 3s, Davis FGP/FTP). Okur, Okafor, Horford, and Camby are all fine centers here. Of the wings selected here, Richardson could really excel in the new PHO offense. I have reservations about Jackson because of the wackiness in GS, Redd because of the suckiness in MIL and his injury proclivity, and Gay because of the logjam in MEM.

ROUND 6

R6 P1 Hilario, Nene F, C DEN BJ VanderWoude
R6 P2 Ginobili, Manu G SAN Rich Wilson
R6 P3 Green, Jeff F OKC Shannon McKeown
R6 P4 Harrington, Al F, C NY Jeff Andriesse
R6 P5 Barbosa, Leandro G PHO Geoffrey Stein
R6 P6 Miller, Andre G POR Dave Gawron
R6 P7 Turkoglu, Hedo G, F TOR Tim Trout
R6 P8 Bynum, Andrew C LAL Steve Alexander
R6 P9 Gordon, Eric G, F LAC Tom Lorenzo
R6 P10 Nelson, Jameer G ORL Matt Buser
R6 P11 Mayo, O.J. G MEM Kyle McKeown
R6 P12 Felton, Raymond G CHR Karen McCaslin

Point guards Miller, Nelson, and Felton were properly taken here, as the last three PGs I'd be comfortable with getting 6+ AST plus other decent enough stats from. Nene and Bynum are good big men here, though they're not exponentially better than Hawes and Love in the next round. The others are decent enough R6 picks, mostly giving you nice 3s. I'm not crazy about Mayo this early, given the presence of Iverson in Memphis, and I'd likely wait another round before taking Barbosa.

ROUND 7

R7 P1 Gordon, Ben G DET Karen McCaslin
R7 P2 Salmons, John G, F CHI Kyle McKeown
R7 P3 Randolph, Anthony F GS Matt Buser
R7 P4 Thomas, Tyrus F CHI Tom Lorenzo
R7 P5 Griffin, Blake F LAC Steve Alexander
R7 P6 Hawes, Spencer F, C SAC Tim Trout
R7 P7 Love, Kevin F, C MIN Dave Gawron
R7 P8 Millsap, Paul F, C UTA Geoffrey Stein
R7 P9 Terry, Jason G DAL Jeff Andriesse
R7 P10 Bibby, Mike G ATL Shannon McKeown
R7 P11 Randolph, Zach F, C MEM Rich Wilson
R7 P12 Ford, T.J. G IND BJ VanderWoude

R7 was dominated by big men, as it should have been. Hawes and Love are nice young centers with upside, and Millsap should still get 30 solid MPG even with Boozer around. Randolph, Thomas, and Griffin offer nice upside for big men. It feels early for Griffin and Thomas, but make sure you're the one in your league that ends up with Randolph, just in case he does fulfill his potential this year. I like Gordon and Salmons well enough here, though I might have waited another round, but I'm not a big fan of Terry (Marion) or Bibby (Crawford) with their new teammates, and I am wary of Grizzlies with the logjam there. I do like Ford here, as the remaining point guards are so iffy.

ROUND 8

R8 P1 Jefferson, Richard F SAN BJ VanderWoude
R8 P2 Smith, J.R. G, F DEN Rich Wilson
R8 P3 Beasley, Michael F MIA Shannon McKeown
R8 P4 Ariza, Trevor F HOU Jeff Andriesse
R8 P5 Bogut, Andrew C MIL Geoffrey Stein
R8 P6 Scola, Luis F, C HOU Dave Gawron
R8 P7 Deng, Luol G, F CHI Tim Trout
R8 P8 Diaw, Boris F, C CHR Steve Alexander
R8 P9 Thompson, Jason F, C SAC Tom Lorenzo
R8 P10 Artest, Ron G, F LAL Matt Buser
R8 P11 Oden, Greg C POR Kyle McKeown
R8 P12 Chandler, Wilson G, F NY Karen McCaslin

Bogut is too gimpy for me (I owned him last year), but I do like the four C-eligibles immediately following him, and it's a good time to take a shot at Oden. Jefferson, Ariza, and Artest offer across-the-board value from the wing, while Beasley and Chandler offer upside. Smith is a whiz with 3s, but needs to prove his worth for a whole season before I bite on him.

ROUND 9

R9 P1 Chalmers, Mario G MIA Karen McCaslin
R9 P2 McGrady, Tracy G, F HOU Kyle McKeown
R9 P3 Wallace, Rasheed F, C BOS Matt Buser
R9 P4 Sessions, Ramon G MIL Tom Lorenzo
R9 P5 Conley, Mike G MEM Steve Alexander
R9 P6 Chandler, Tyson C OKC Tim Trout
R9 P7 Howard, Josh G, F DAL Dave Gawron
R9 P8 Odom, Lamar F LAL Geoffrey Stein
R9 P9 Garcia, Francisco G, F SAC Jeff Andriesse
R9 P10 Williams, Louis G PHI Shannon McKeown
R9 P11 Maggette, Corey G, F GS Rich Wilson
R9 P12 Kaman, Chris C LAC BJ VanderWoude

Sessions and Conley, while not bad in R9, are looking at timeshares, so I like Lou Willimas the best for assists here. We saw the last run of quality centers in R8. I'm not fond of Wallace, Chandler, or Kaman here. Howard's production dips with the arrival of Marion, but he's still useful. Odom will at least give you boards. Garcia is a good upside/3s pick here, but I wouldn't touch McGrady or Maggette with a ten-foot pole.

ROUND 10

R10 P1 Duhon, Chris G NY BJ VanderWoude
R10 P2 Robinson, Nate G NY Rich Wilson
R10 P3 Curry, Stephen G GS Shannon McKeown
R10 P4 Andersen, Chris F DEN Jeff Andriesse
R10 P5 Battier, Shane F HOU Geoffrey Stein
R10 P6 Brooks, Aaron G HOU Dave Gawron
R10 P7 Hamilton, Richard G, F DET Tim Trout
R10 P8 Iverson, Allen G DET Steve Alexander
R10 P9 Williams, Marvin F ATL Tom Lorenzo
R10 P10 Stuckey, Rodney G DET Matt Buser
R10 P11 Noah, Joakim F, C CHI Kyle McKeown
R10 P12 Gasol, Marc C MEM Karen McCaslin

I like all of the guards selected here, with the exception of Curry (a bit early for him). Snatching up the last sources of assists is not a bad idea. Gasol and Noah are good sources of rebounds and blocks for your bench, and Andersen is a good situational sho-blocker to start when needed. Battier and Marvin are nice across-the-board. I do like Brooks with the most upside here (he said, patting himself on the back).

ROUND 11

R11 P1 Hibbert, Roy C IND Karen McCaslin
R11 P2 Lee, Courtney G, F NJ Kyle McKeown
R11 P3 Brewer, Ronnie G, F UTA Matt Buser
R11 P4 Jianlian, Yi F NJ Tom Lorenzo
R11 P5 Harden, James G OKC Steve Alexander
R11 P6 Thornton, Al F LAC Tim Trout
R11 P7 Young, Thaddeus F PHI Dave Gawron
R11 P8 Kirilenko, Andrei F UTA Geoffrey Stein
R11 P9 O'Neal, Jermaine F, C MIA Jeff Andriesse
R11 P10 Dalembert, Samuel C PHI Shannon McKeown
R11 P11 Dunleavy, Mike G, F IND Rich Wilson
R11 P12 Miller, Brad C CHI BJ VanderWoude

This is where we start filling out our bench, and we would hope our starters come through while these players see no more than a handful of weeks in our starting line-ups. I'm not crazy about Hibbert, but Lee and Yi are two nice Nets with upside. Brewer, Thornton, and Young are role players, useful in their four-game weeks. Kirilenko and Dalembert can block some shots off your bench, and O'Neal and Miller are fine back-up centers. I would wait a few more rounds before taking a chance on Dunleavy.

ROUND 12

R12 P1 Crawford, Jamal G ATL BJ VanderWoude
R12 P2 Haywood, Brendan C WAS Rich Wilson
R12 P3 Stojakovic, Peja G, F NO Shannon McKeown
R12 P4 Evans, Tyreke G SAC Jeff Andriesse
R12 P5 McDyess, Antonio F, C SAN Geoffrey Stein
R12 P6 O'Neal, Shaquille C CLE Dave Gawron
R12 P7 Perkins, Kendrick C BOS Tim Trout
R12 P8 Belinelli, Marco G GS Steve Alexander
R12 P9 Bass, Brandon F ORL Tom Lorenzo
R12 P10 Miller, Mike G, F WAS Matt Buser
R12 P11 Pietrus, Mickael G, F ORL Kyle McKeown
R12 P12 Augustin, D.J. G CHR Karen McCaslin

We're basically just speculating here. How will Crawford fit in with the Hawks? Is Peja's back going to hold up this year? Can the youngsters Evans, Belinelli, and Augustin develop enough to be useful off our fantasy benches this season? Haywood, McDyess, Shaq, and Perkins are all good back-up centers here. I'm not a fan of Bass or Pietrus at all, and Millier's situation is too crowded (Foye/Stevenson).

ROUND 13

R13 P1 Thabeet, Hasheem C MEM Karen McCaslin
R13 P2 Williams, Terrence F NJ Kyle McKeown
R13 P3 Hinrich, Kirk G CHI Matt Buser
R13 P4 Gallinari, Danilo F NY Tom Lorenzo
R13 P5 Azubuike, Kelenna G, F GS Steve Alexander
R13 P6 Udrih, Beno G SAC Tim Trout
R13 P7 Prince, Tayshaun F DET Dave Gawron
R13 P8 Foye, Randy G WAS Geoffrey Stein
R13 P9 Landry, Carl F HOU Jeff Andriesse
R13 P10 Flynn, Jonny G MIN Shannon McKeown
R13 P11 Martin, Kenyon F DEN Rich Wilson
R13 P12 Lowry, Kyle G HOU BJ VanderWoude

We're down to tossing the spaghetti against the wall and seeing what sticks.I like Gallinari and Hinrich best here for their potential to take a solid 30 MPG and run with it. Landry is a decent choice, too. Prince was just a player I could use if injury strikes that wouldn't hurt me too much anywhere. The others have serious playing time (Udrih perhaps losing his job to Evans) or injury (K-Mart) issues, which can be expected in this round.

ROUND 14

R14 P1 Outlaw, Travis F POR BJ VanderWoude
R14 P2 Bell, Raja G CHR Rich Wilson
R14 P3 Frye, Channing F PHO Shannon McKeown
R14 P4 Warrick, Hakim F MEM Jeff Andriesse
R14 P5 Mason, Roger G SAN Geoffrey Stein
R14 P6 Fernandez, Rudy G POR Dave Gawron
R14 P7 Richardson, Quentin G, F LAC Tim Trout
R14 P8 Ridnour, Luke G MIL Steve Alexander
R14 P9 Varejao, Anderson F, C CLE Tom Lorenzo
R14 P10 Milicic, Darko F, C NY Matt Buser
R14 P11 Nocioni, Andres F SAC Kyle McKeown
R14 P12 Speights, Marreese F, C PHI Karen McCaslin

I really like Rudy here. I needed 3s, and he'll apparently handle the ball more this season. Frye is my next favorite pick in the round, as he could see 30 useful MPG for the Suns. Otherwise, no offense to the other participants in the draft, but the other picks in this round would likely be dropped early in the season if this league were to be played out.

ROUND 15

R15 P1 Rush, Brandon G, F IND Karen McCaslin
R15 P2 DeRozan, DeMar F TOR Kyle McKeown
R15 P3 Lopez, Robin F, C PHO Matt Buser
R15 P4 Turiaf, Ronny F, C GS Tom Lorenzo
R15 P5 Wilcox, Chris C DET Steve Alexander
R15 P6 Haslem, Udonis F, C MIA Tim Trout
R15 P7 Hill, Grant G, F PHO Dave Gawron
R15 P8 Parker, Anthony G CLE Geoffrey Stein
R15 P9 Gomes, Ryan F MIN Jeff Andriesse
R15 P10 Hansbrough, Tyler F IND Shannon McKeown
R15 P11 Ilgauskas, Zydrunas C CLE Rich Wilson
R15 P12 Bayless, Jerryd G POR BJ VanderWoude

There's not much to like in this final round. Wilcox and Haslem are decent enough pick as back-up centers. Rush and Parker are good enough for threes. Looking back now, I'd rather have taken Julian Wright there for his upside than Hill.

ALSO

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