Below, we explore what should happen in this week's NFL games. Of course, in the NFL, only half of what should happen actually does happen, but playing the percentages gives you the best chance of winning. Remember, think twice before benching a stud based on match-ups! We list the Vegas odds spread in parentheses and the Over/Under number in brackets.

ALERT! We just updated our Strength of Schedule Grid on 11/16 to point out strong and weak schedules for the remainder of the 2009 season, so make sure you download it, print it, and keep it by your side to consult for every decision you make. Personally, I like to take a highlighter and highlight out the column for the current week each Monday as to easier see the remaining good and bad stretches.

Ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Miami @ Carolina

Carolina has the home field advantage plus two healthy backs in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Miami has a healthy Ricky Williams, but lead back Ronnie Brown will sit this one out, and that will be the difference. Well, that and the Dolphins have nothing remotely close to Steve Smith on the receiving end. Both defenses are good but not great. CAR 27, MIA 17

SUNDAY EARLY

Atlanta @ NY Giants (-7) [46]

The Falcons are much more intimidating at home than on the road. Even without Michael Turner, they should put up a fight but come up short. We're expecting Brandon Jacobs best game of the year this week, and Eli Manning should do well distributing the ball to Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Kevin Boss. NYG 24, ATL 17 (Pick: ATL +7, under)

Buffalo (-8.5) @ Jacksonville [42.5]

We know that neither of these defenses is top notch, though the Jags D typically plays tougher at home. We like Maurice Jones-Drew to have a strong game, as well as Mike Sims-Walker for the home team. The Jags usually allow good passing numbers, but the way Bills quarterbacks are playing, that's not much of an issue. Still, it makes the Bills WRs Lee Evans and Terrell Owens worth considering if you have them. JAC 20, BUF 17 (Pick: BUF +8.5, under)

Cleveland @ Detroit (-3) [38]

Both defenses have been throttled by superior offenses throughout the city thus far. However, when looking at the talent, neither defense is terrible. The Cleveland offense is truly terrible, though. At least the Lions have some talent in Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, and Calvin Johnson. We believe that the aforementioned talent will make the difference for the Lions in this game. DET 17, CLE 13 (Pick: DET -3, under)

Indianapolis (-1) @ Baltimore [44.5]

Peyton Manning is playing out of his mind right now, and the Ravens have had some trouble defensing the pass this year. While it's possible that the Colts could falter on the road, we just don't see it happening. We expect Joe Flacco to have a pretty good day, as Tom Brady did last Sunday night (though not AS good without Moss and Welker to throw to). IND 31, BAL 20 (Pick: IND -1, over)

New Orleans (-11) @ Tampa Bay [51]

Tampa rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has impressed thus far, and if the Rams could score 23 against the Saints last week, then Freeman can put up 31 at home. The Saints should be able to pass and run the ball with relative ease. Expect more passing than running from Tampa. Kellen Winslow could be in line for a big game. NO 35, TB 31 (Pick: TB +11, over)

Pittsburgh (-10) @ Kansas City [40]

The world was turned upside down last week, as the Chiefs won and the Steelers lost. Things will right themselves this week, as the Chiefs will struggle against the Pittsburgh defense, and the Steelers offense will not struggle against the Chiefs defense. This is probably a good week to chance on Mike Wallace against that poor Chiefs secondary. KC RB Jamaal Charles should have trouble running the ball this week, but his receptions should still make him useful in PPR leagues. PIT 27, KC 10 (Pick: KC +10, under)

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-6.5) [42]

The 49ers weren't all that impressive against the Bears last week. The Packers were quite impressive against the Cowboys last week. Look for both trends to continue. Frank Gore will get his, and Alex Smith and Vernon Davis should have better days, but Aaron Rodgers and company should win this one fairly easily. GB 27, SF 17 (Pick: GB -6.5, over)

Seattle @ Minnesota (-10.5) [46.5]

Seattle played a pretty good game against the Cardinals last week, and Minnesota destroyed the Lions. Minnesota should fare well again this Sunday, but Seattle actually has a pulse and should do some damage on offense. Justin Forsett, starting for Julius Jones, should be especially good in PPR leagues. Nate Burleson should bounce back from his zero catch performance against his former team. MIN 27, SEA 20 (Pick: SEA +10.5, over)

Washington @ Dallas (-11) [41.5]

Washington played strong last week after giving up the two long bombs to Brandon Marshall, but you can expect Tony Romo and Miles Austin to hook up early and often against the Redskins in Big D. The Cowboys defense should shut down Jason Campbell with relative ease, and Marion Barber should close things out in the second half. DAL 31, WAS 7 (Pick: DAL -11, under)

SUNDAY LATE

Arizona (-9) @ St. Louis [47]

The Rams put up a good fight against the Saints last week, but you can bet Kurt Warner will have one of his monster games this week, as he returns to his old stomping grounds. The Rams offensive line is playing much better, so Stephen Jackson could have another strong game, but the Cardinals passing attack is the thing to watch this week (as usual in Arizona games). ARI 35, STL 14 (Pick: ARI -9, over)

Cincinnati (-9.5) @ Oakland [36]

Cincy won 18-12 last week. Oakland lost 16-10. However, the team that the Bengals beat is far better than the team that beat the Raiders. Cincinnati should have no problem putting away the Raiders and their sorry offense this week. The Cincy D/ST could have a particularly big week. CIN 17, OAK 6 (Pick: CIN -9.5, under)

NY Jets @ New England (-10.5) [45]

You can bet that the Patriots will be fuming after last week's loss to the Colts. Mark Sanchez has been inconsistent in his rookie year, and New England should be able to exploit him this week. Randy Moss struggled against the Jets last time out, but you have to believe that the Pats will find a way to get him more involved this time around. The Jets should put up a decent fight but lose out in the end. NE 31, NYJ 17 (Pick: NE -10.5, over)

San Diego (-4) @ Denver [off]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... We have a tale of two teams here, with the Bolts playing well lately and the Broncos losing their last three. The superior Chargers offense should win out. It might be closer if Kyle Orton starts and more of a SD blowout if Chris Simms starts. SD 27, DEN 20 (Pick: SD -4)

SUNDAY NIGHT

Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago [45]

Donovan McNabb is locked in right now. Could he be the third quarterback of the year to drop 5 passing TDs on the Bears defense? He should do much better than Alex Smith did last week, anyway. You know that the Eagles will be passing plenty with Brian Westbrook down for the count. Jay Cutler actually has a shot at a good game here, as the Eagles are thin in the secondary. The Birds are still too strong for Chicago, though, and will pull out the road win. PHI 28, CHI 20 (Pick: PHI -3, over)

MONDAY NIGHT

Tennessee @ Houston (-4.5) [48]

Matt Schaub has turned out to be an elite quarterback, but Houston has had trouble running the ball. Tennessee is looking really strong since the bye week and insertion of Vince Young as the starting quarterback. Plus, the defense has been excellent. The defense faces a stern test this week in the Texans offense, and but the way the Titans have been playing, they should overcome for the road victory. TEN 24, HOU 20 (Pick: TEN +$.5, under)

Again, ask a question about your lineup in our FORUM. Leave a comment about this article down below.